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USD, EUR/USD, USD/CAD, Crude Oil, Dow Jones Analysis: COT report

Bears were busy last week as they piled into shorts against EUR/USD and the Dow Jones, and also reached a record level of net-short exposure to the Canadian dollar. And this was beneficial for USD bulls.

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Dow Jones Forecast: DJIA falls post-Fed & as PPI falls, jobless claims rise

US stocks are heading for a mixed open as the market continues digesting yesterday's Fed meeting. Policymakers lowered rate cut expectations to just one cut this year and did so after a slight weakening in monthly CPI. Today, data showed PPI fell in May, and jobless claims jumped. Meanwhile, the tech sector, lifted by chip stocks, is benefiting the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 but not the Dow Jones.

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June 13, 2024 02:06 PM
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Dow Jones Forecast: DJIA slips amid a cautious mood ahead of this week's FOMC meeting

US stocks are set to open modestly lower, extending losses from Friday, after the non-farm payroll smashed forecasts and raised doubts about a September Federal Reserve rate cut. The mood is cautious ahead of this week's US inflation data and FOMC meeting. Elsewhere the EUR is falling sharply after a surprise snap election in France. Apple is in focus ahead of the Developer's conference.

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June 10, 2024 02:28 PM

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Dow Jones Forecast: DJIA falls after a stronger NFP report

US stocks are falling lower after the stronger-than-expected non-farm payroll data raised questions over whether the Federal Reserve will be able to cut rates in September. The data comes after mixed data across this week and ahead of the US CPI and the FOMC rate decision next week. Oil prices are set to fall across the week after Sunday's OPEC+ meeting, which raised concerns over increased supply later in the week.

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June 7, 2024 02:06 PM
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Dow Jones Forecast: DJIA falls on weak growth worries

US stocks point to a lower start amid rising worries over the health of the US economy after weak manufacturing data yesterday. A recent string of softer than forecast macro data points is unnerving investors, even if it means that the Fed cut rates earlier. Oil prices are falling for a 6th day as supply is expected to rise as the demand outlook weakens.

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June 4, 2024 02:24 PM
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USD, Wall Street, gold: Risk seems to be falling apart at the seams

I suspect we're seeing the early moves of a pullback of appetite for risk in general, which saw traders push Wall Street indices and gold lower on Wednesday thanks to weak treasury demand. And it seems to be paving the way for the next leg higher for the USD.

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Dow Jones Forecast: DJIA falls as treasury yields rise

US stocks point to a weaker start as treasury yields rise. Concerns over sticky inflation and high rates for longer hurt mega caps. The US economic calendar is relatively quiet today, with the Fed Beige Book and several Fed speakers in focus ahead of Friday's core-PCE data. Oil prices are rising for a fourth straight day as the OPEC+ meeting comes into view.

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May 29, 2024 02:01 PM
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These S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Jones ‘rallies’ look made to fade

We have four full trading days left in the month, and odds favour another bullish month for US indices. However, price action on the daily timeframe has alerted me to a potential pullback, while VIX futures and market positioning are also sending smoke signals to be aware of.

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May 28, 2024 04:01 AM
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Dow Jones Forecast: 39000 Barrier on Hold, Rebound or Drop?

Dow Jones Forecast: the Dow has fallen back to the lower end of the 39,000-price zone amid hawkish sentiment. What’s next?

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Gold, Wall Street slammed as PMI data stifles hopes of Fed rate cuts

The record highs created for gold and Wall Street this week appear to have been bad omens, with sharp bearish reversals forming and rate-cut bets being slashed.

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Dow Jones Forecast: FOMC Minutes Delay New Record Highs

Dow Jones Forecast: Market euphoria was halted by hawkish FOMC minutes. Will charts be able to reflect resiliency?

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Dow Jones Forecast: DJIA muted on rate cut uncertainty

US stocks point to a modestly weaker open amid Fed rate cut uncertainty and ahead of Nvidia earnings tomorrow. Fed speakers have sounded cautious about cutting rates despite inflation cooling in April. The US economic calendar is quiet today. Attention will be on more Fed speakers ahead of tomorrow's FOMC minutes. Meanwhile, Macy's and Lowe's point to a stronger open after beating estimates.

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May 21, 2024 02:20 PM
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Dow Jones Forecast: DJIA set for a quiet start below 40,000

US stocks head for a quiet open as the CPI-fueled rally runs out of steam. Several Fed speakers have warned that rates need to stay high for longer, and they want to see more evidence of inflation cooling before cutting rates. The Dow Jones remains below the key 40,000 level that it breached yesterday. There is no high-impacting data today. Attention will remain on Fed speakers.

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May 17, 2024 02:23 PM

Bitcoin bounces in style as Wall Street hits new highs

On Tuesday I outlined a bullish case for bitcoin futures whilst prices remained above $60k. One soft US CPI and retail sales report later, bullish range expansion has most certainly kicked in.

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Dow Jones Forecast: DJIA extends last week's gain ahead of Fed speakers

US stocks are set to continue the recent bullish run as treasury yields fall and attention turns to Wednesday's CPI report. Dow Jones posted its best weekly performance since December last week, supported by earnings and signs of a weaker labour market. US Fed speakers are in focus today ahead of Wednesday's CPI report, Recent Fed speakers have supported the view that rates may need to stay high for longer.

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May 13, 2024 02:15 PM
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Dow Jones Analysis: DJIA falls after Meta disappoints, inflation rises

Meta beat earnings and revenue forecasts with EPS of $4.71 on revenue of $36.46 billion. However, the share price has slumped after weaker revenue guidance and higher spending plans. The selloff has hit sentiment and dragged other tech stocks lower. Meanwhile, the US Q1 GDP was weaker than expected, at 1.6%, annualised. However, core PCE inflation rose more than expected across the quarter. The Dow Jone analysis sees the price testing support at 38000,

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April 25, 2024 02:12 PM
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Dow Jones Forecast: DJIA rises as risk sentiment improves

US stocks are set to open higher on Monday after steep losses last week. Following an attack by Iran on Israel over the weekend and comments from the US that it will not support a retaliatory attack by Israel, the market has calmed. Geopolitical developments will remain a key focus this week. US retail sales came in stronger than forecast, supporting the view that the Fed will keep rates high for longer. Goldman Sachs is set to rise after earnings.

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April 15, 2024 02:14 PM

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Dow Jones, Nasdaq forecast: Key levels for US indices

The recent underperformance of the Dow Jones has not come without warning, as asset managers have been reducing their net-long exposure for several weeks now. Yet the Nasdaq remains above 18k, which means it may be better suited for bulls should sentiment improve and leave the Dow Jones for bears to consider fading into, should prices rebound.

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Dow Jones Forecast: DJIA flat ahead of tomorrow's inflation data

US stocks are set for another flat session as investors sit on the sidelines ahead of tomorrow's inflation data. CPI is expected to rise to 3.4% YoY from 3.2% and could raise further doubts over the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates this year. The market is pricing in a 50/50 probability of a rate cut in June and expects rates to be cut by 60 basis points across the year, down from 75 basis points just a few weeks ago.

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April 9, 2024 02:15 PM
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DJIA, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Technical Forecast: US Index Uptrends Remain Healthy for Now

The DJIA and SPX are seeing bullish consolidations after breaking out to a record highs last week, while the Nasdaq 100 is testing the top of its 1-month range at record high, with a potential breakout targeting 19K.

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Dow Jones Forecast: DJIA rises to record high after the Fed boosts rate cut bets

US stocks are opening at fresh record highs, extending yesterday's rally after the Fed bolstered rate cut bets. The US Central Bank left rates on hold, upwardly revised the inflation outlook, and maintained its guidance for 3 rate cuts this year, surprising the market. The Fed doesn't appear to be concerned by two months of hotter-than-forecast inflation. Chip stocks are leading the rally and Reddit will start trading today on the NYSE.

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March 21, 2024 01:42 PM
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Dow Jones Forecast: DJIA slips ahead of the Fed rate decision

US stocks are heading for a mixed start, with the Dow Jones falling modestly and the Nasdaq 100 inching higher ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. Policymakers are expected to leave rates on hold. Instead, the focus will be on the projections and the tone. After two straight months of hotter-than-forecast inflation, Fed Chair Powell could adopt a more hawkish tone, pushing back rate cut bets. A more hawkish Fed could hurt demand for equities and boost the USD.

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March 20, 2024 12:50 PM
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Dow Jones Forecast: DJIA falls on inflation worries

US stocks fall after sticky inflation data this week has raised concerns the Fed may keep rates high for longer. The Fed is not expected to cut rates next week but could downwardly revise its dot plot from three rate cuts in 2024 forecast in December to 2 cuts. The USD is on track for a weekly gain as the Fed could turn more hawkish. Oil is set to rise 3% across the week on signs that the market is tightening.

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March 15, 2024 02:21 PM