S&P500 Forecast: SPX muted ahead of Fed speakers & retail sales later in the week

Fiona Cincotta
By :  ,  Senior Market Analyst

US futures

Dow future -0.22% at 38,487

S&P futures -0.1% at 5426

Nasdaq futures 0.03% at 19669

In Europe

FTSE -0.1% at 8146

Dax 0.17% at 18049

  • Stocks point to a quiet start
  • Retail sales and Fed speakers will be in focus this week
  • Oil holds steady after mixed Chinese data

Stocks point to a quiet start  

U.S. stocks are heading for a muted start as the dust settles on last week's inflation data and Federal Reserve interest rate decision. Today is a quiet day for economic data, so the focus will be on Federal Reserve policymakers, who could shed more light on when the central bank is likely to start cutting interest rates.

Retail sales data tomorrow could give some clues to the market over the health of the US economy and the timing of Fed rate cuts. Consumer spending has been an area of focus for Wall Street as the market gauges the impact of higher interest rates on the economy.

Last week, the Fed reiterated that it needs to see more evidence that inflation is cooling towards the 2% target before cutting borrowing costs. It also predicted just one interest rate cut this year, although the market is pricing in two cuts from the Fed.

Investors will also be listening to several Fed speakers across the week, including New York Fed president John Williams, San Francisco president Mary Daly, and Richmond Fed president Thomas Barkin. Over the weekend Minneapolis Fed president Neel Kashkari said that he thought one interest rate cut this year was a reasonable expectation.

Corporate news

Autodesk is set to open over 4% higher after it was reported that activist investor Starboard Value has acquired a stake worth around $500 million and is pushing for changes within the company.

Coinbase has fallen 1.2% as the cryptocurrency exchange is weighed down by more losses in Bitcoin. Bitcoin fell 4.5% last week, dropping to $65K, and is extending those losses at the start of this week.

S&P 500 forecast – technical analysis.

The S&P 500 is consolidating after reaching a record high of 5447 last week. The price has steadied at 5225 as the RSI looks to come out of overbought territory. Buyers will look to rise above 5445 to extend gains towards 5500. Immediate support can be seen at 5330, last week’s low. Below the 5277 the April high comes into play  ahead of 5190 the  late May low.


FX markets – USD rises, GBP/USD falls

The USD is rising, adding to last week's gains above 105.50. In the absence of high-impacting macroeconomic data, investors will be paying close attention to comments from Federal Reserve officials.

 EUR/USD is holding steady around 1.07 as it struggles to rebound from last week’s losses. Political uncertainty within the region, particularly in France, is capping the euro's upside as the markets fret about high spending and higher debt levels.

GBP/USD is edging lower ahead of a busy week for the pound with the release of inflation data and the Bank of England interest rate decision on Thursday, where the central bank could see the market up for an August cut.

Oil holds steady after mixed China data

Oil prices are holding steady after strong gains in the previous week as investors weigh up mixed Chinese data.

Chinese industrial output and fixed asset investments or slower growth and oil refining fell to their lowest level this year; however, retail sales data offered some optimism, rising by more than expected.

Crude oil rose over almost 4% last week, reversing a steep sell-off earlier in the month after OPEC+ signalled that it would increase supply into the market later this year. However, last week, monthly reports from OPEC and the 
Related tags: US Open SPX 500 USD Oil

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