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USD/JPY forecast: 151 seems plausible, 152 may be a stretch

USD/JPY is clinging to 150 despite the weaker US dollar on Tuesday, as there seems little reason for traders to bid the yen. And unless we receive a compelling reason to buy then yen via a surprisingly hawkish BOJ or broad risk-off environment, it becomes difficult to construct an overly bearish case for USD/JPY whilst the Fed remain quiet about rate cuts.

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February 21, 2024 12:21 AM
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US dollar, Nasdaq, S&P 500, gold analysis: Forward testing US CPI

Attention shifts the today’s US CPI report, which is arguably the biggest event of the week. So we crunch some numbers on the US dollar, S&P 500, Nasdaq and gold to see how they have performed around it.

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USD rally pauses for breath, DAX finds stability amidst the noise

We're seeing early signs that the US dollar rally could be losing steam and indices such as the DAX are finding stability. Whilst too early to pick out trend reversals, it does suggest that sentiment of this week is quietly changing.

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Energy

WTI crude oil prices defy the bullish consensus

The 4-month winning streak on oil prices is on track to be snapped, with October having erased all of September’s gains. And this flies in the face of current news flows, of the potential for the Middle East conflict to escalate and send oil prices higher (alongside food, energy and inflation expectations).

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Nasdaq 100: The fine line between bullish and bearish

If we take a step back to admire the view, the Nasdaq 100 appears defiantly bullish with the clout of net-long asset managers fully behind it. Yet with so many headline risks, earnings season, and Fed members speaking this week, it could struggle to break key resistance nearby if geopolitical risks intensify amid calls of 'higher for longer' interest rates.

Downward trend

Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100: Indices remain in the hands of bond yields

The bond rout and sharp rise in yields continue to take centre stage for sentiment. And the longer this trend persists, the greater the odds appear for indices to finally roll over. Given three key US indices are showing signs of stability around their respective support levels, it brings the potential for a minor bounce over the near-term. But if bond yields keep rising, any such bounce could prove futile for bulls.

japan_09

USD/JPY hits a fresh 9-month high ahead of Friday’s BOJ meeting

The Fed delivered their hawkish hold, sending the US-JP 2-year yield differential to fresh cycle highs ahead of tomorrow’s BOJ meeting. And whilst the risk of verbal intervention remains from the MOF/BOJ, they may not actually intervene if the trend remains orderly. And price action on the USD/JPY daily chart suggests that it is.

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Nasdaq 100 appears buoyant ahead of a key US inflation report

We are now in the second full trading week of September, a month which has averaged negative returns for the Nasdaq 100. However, the market looks buoyant ahead of a key US inflation report, which has the potential to extend the Nasdaq's gains just as easily as it could send it sharply lower when the data arrives.

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September 12, 2023 02:03 AM
Research

Can the S&P 500 move lower coax bears from the sideline?

The S&P 500 is on track for its third consecutive week lower. And that leaves us to wonder if some of the bears that were squeezed out over the rally over the past couple of months are now set to return to the market.

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August 17, 2023 04:25 AM
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AUD/USD, China A50 higher on China’s deflation (but will CPI keep falling?)

Whilst China’s deflating CPI number brings hopes of weaker inflation elsewhere, a quick at the chart reminds us that inflation spends very little time in negative territory.

Research

USD/JPY whipsaws after the BOJ adjusts its yield curve control (kind of)

USD/JPY hit a bout of volatility when the BOJ announced that they will aim to control the ‘flexibility’ of its 10-year target rate of +/- 0.5%, and allow the yields to rise above the ceiling by a “certain degree”. This is not a widening of the band as such, but a more relaxed approached to controlling the bond yield around it.

Research

Dow Jones, ASX 200, Hang Seng Analysis: Key level to watch

Despite its YUTD high, the Dow Jones remains a preferred short during bouts of risk-off. The ASX 200 appears set for a pullback and the Hang Seng shows the potential for a rally.

Congress building

Dow Jones Outlook: Stocks edge lower after last week's gains

US stocks are set to start the week modestly lower after strong gains last week. Cooler inflation boosted view that the Fed's peak interest rate could be close. Today softer Chinese GDP data is hurting risk sentiment in an otherwise quiet day on the economic calendar. Investors are bracing themselves for more corporate earnings this week from big names such as Tesla, Netflix, Goldman Sachs, IBM and Bank of America.

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July 17, 2023 02:15 PM
Research

Nasdaq 100, Apple: July has favoured bulls over the past thirty years

Whilst July can be a time of lower volatility, we note that over the past thirty years both the Nasdaq 100 and Apple have averaged positive returns with a positive win rate for the month.

Research

DAX Analysis: Its record high was ‘short’ lived. Where to next?

The DAX may have reached a record high on Friday, but a knock to sentiment and caution ahead of Jerome Powell’s testimony has seen it pull back to a three-day low.

Research

Nasdaq 100 Analysis: Nvidia (NVDA) to remain king of the Nasdaq?

Nvidia (NVDA) remains the best performer of the Nasdaq with a YTD gain of ~170%, yet a classic technical price signal suggests there could be further gains to follow as the year progresses.

Research

CAD, WTI Analysis: CAD/JPY coils at cycle highs ahead of BOC meeting

Whilst there are some bets that the BOC could hike, we suspect recent data continues to point to another pause with the risk of a slightly hawkish statement. Either way, we remain bullish on CAD pairs overall.

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Research

AUD/USD down with China PMIs, but CPI points the wrong way for the RBA

Two contradictory reports wreaked a bit of havoc on AUD/USD today, with hot-CPI gains quickly evaporating upon the release of weak China PMIs.

Research

AUD/USD, ASX 200 analysis: Debt ceiling talks weigh on sentiment

AUD/USD is potentially within 1-2 trading days of testing its YTD low and the ASX 200 is in risk of falling further within its range, as debt ceiling talks weigh on sentiment.

Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 analysis: Why we prefer the Nasdaq over the S&P 500

Debt ceiling talks have been rolled over for another week, but if a resolution is found we expect the Nasdaq to continue outperforming Wall Street given its strong gains this year.

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DJI outlook: Getting down with the Dow

Today we look at the Dow Jones which has seen momentum turn swiftly lower, in line with appetite for risk.

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The ASX rallies, Nasdaq ponders a breakout as sentiment perks up

With sentiment having improved, a soft inflation report form the US tomorrow could potentially support a breakout for Wall Street indices and extend a rally for the ASX 200.

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Are US deposits safe? Don’t bank on it Nasdaq bulls

US treasury secretary Janet Yellen has arguably stolen the show from the FOMC meeting, thanks to her comments on banking deposits which saw Wall Street slide into the close.