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AUD/USD, ASX 200: Three-peat of hawkish disappointment under the RBA’s new leadership

The question now for AUD/USD and ASX 200 is whether the tone truly reflects what the RBA is thinking, or will we see a repeat of recent months where subsequent commentary has been far more hawkish in nature?

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Today 04:23 AM
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AUD/USD, RBA mins in focus, Nasdaq tracks Thanksgiving seasonality: Asian Open

We're on the lookout for any hawkish undertone in today's RBA minutes - given the RBA's statement was deemed to be less hawkish than expected. Failure to do so could see AUD/USD hand back some of it's gains. The Nasdaq is also following its seasonaly tendency to rise into Thanksgiving.

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November 20, 2023 10:22 PM
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AUD/USD, USD/JPY forecast: Asian Open – Nov 20, 2023

With a bullish engulfing week and day for AUD/USD on Friday, can the Aussie muster up the strength for a breakout above key resistance? And if losses on USD/CNH are anything to go by, perhaps USD/JPY is preparing to follow suit.

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November 19, 2023 10:06 PM

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AUD/USD, ASX 200: Struggling for traction following latest corrective bounce

Australian employment growth continued to motor in September, keeping alive the prospect of a further interest rate hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia early in the new year.

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November 16, 2023 01:18 AM

AUD/USD eyes breakout, bonds yields get smashed post CPI: Asian Open

Hopes that the Fed have reached their terminal rate were revived with a softer-than-expected US inflation report. Earlier comments from Fed officials (namely Powell) had rekindled concerns that the Fed may have another hike up their sleeve, yet with CPI and core CPI reads all undershooting consensus estimates, risk-on returned in a big way.

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November 14, 2023 10:15 PM

WTI crude oil mean reversion kicks in, ASX for 7100? Asian Open

WTI crude oil rose for a second day after the monthly OPEC report played down demand concerns and blamed speculators for oil's recent decline. A move to $80 at a minimum or $83 could now be on the cards. We also have a near-term bullish bias on the ASX 200.

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November 13, 2023 10:02 PM

AUD/USD, S&500 analysis: Asian Open – Nov 13, 2013

The S&P 500 continues to defy gravity and appears on the cup of breaking above a key resistance level. And whilst AUD/USD fell for five days last week, it is fast approaching a key support level that has been favourable to dip buyers in recent times.

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November 12, 2023 10:08 PM

WTI continues to defy the consensus, AUD/USD falls post RBA: Asian Open

WTI fell over 4% to a 4-month low on Tuesday after slicing through $80. AUD/USD was also the weakest FX major after the RBA's statement lacked the level of hawkishness traders were seemingly positioned for.

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November 7, 2023 09:33 PM

AUD/USD, ASX 200: Don’t be so quick to call it a dovish RBA hike

Traders believe the RBA is one-and done when it comes to the restart of its tightening cycle, jumping to the conclusion the 25 basis point rate hike to 4.35% will likely be the last. AUD/USD fell while the ASX 200 rallied.

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November 7, 2023 04:38 AM

AUD/USD, ASX 200 tread water ahead of expected RBA hike: Asian Open

With an overwhelming majority now backing a 25bp RBA hike today, the RBA may need to deliver a hawkish hike for AUD/USD to stand any chance of a sustainable break above resistance and send the ASX 200 materially lower.

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November 6, 2023 10:00 PM

AUD/USD surges ahead of RBA’s expected rate hike: Asian Open

AUD/USD finally saw the break above 64c that we have been anticipating, on renewed bets of an RBA hike alongside a weaker nonfarm payrolls report.

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November 5, 2023 10:16 PM

AUD/USD on verge of breakout? ASX 200 perk up: Asian Open – Nov 2 2023

AUD/USD has continued to defy bears with a sustainable break below 63c. And with momentum now turning higher and a bullish engulfing candle closing on a key resistance level, I'm on high alert for a bullish breakout. The ASX 200 also shows some appetite for further gains, as long as it can also break a key resistance level nearby.

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November 1, 2023 10:21 PM

AUD/USD, ASX 200: Hot retail sales, inflation bolster case for RBA rate hike

Australian retail sales surged in September, solidifying the view the RBA is likely to restart its interest rate hiking cycle when it meets on November 7.

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October 30, 2023 01:56 AM

AUD/USD higher, ASX 200 lower as hot inflation bolsters RBA rate hike bets

Australian inflation has come in hot in Q3, seeing the odds for a RBA rate hike in November lift to 60%. The AUD/USD has moved higher while the ASX 200 has reversed earlier gains, turning negative for the session.

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October 25, 2023 02:10 AM
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AUD/USD, ASX 200: A quick guide on what to watch in today’s Australian inflation report

When you look back through the history books, no other economic data release is more important for the AUD and ASX than Australia’s quarterly consumer price inflation report. Today will be no exception.

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October 24, 2023 10:45 PM
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AUD/USD, ASX 200: Australia’s jobs report takes on greater significance for the RBA rate outlook

Australia’s September jobs report is arguably the most important G10 FX data release in the world on Thursday, ensuring there’ll be significant interest among AUD/USD and ASX 200 traders.

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October 18, 2023 11:23 PM
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ASX 200, AUD/JPY: Tentative rebound subject to substantial headline risk

For ASX 200 and AUD/JPY, until the geopolitical situation in the Middle East improves, adopting a sell-on-rallies approach remains the most appropriate strategy for those and other cyclical asset classes.

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October 17, 2023 01:03 AM

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AUD/USD, ASX 200: Hammered as US supercore inflation comes in super-hot

Dip-buyers in AUD/USD and ASX 200 were provided a reminder that the path of least resistance remains lower short-term with both hammered on the back of a hot US “supercore” services inflation number in September.

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October 12, 2023 11:26 PM
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ASX 200, AUD/JPY: Fed policy pivot hopes drive rapid rebound

Money markets are betting the Fed rate hike cycle is over with up to 100 basis points of cuts expected in 2024, boosting cyclical assets classes such as the ASX 200 and AUD/JPY.

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October 11, 2023 01:01 AM
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ASX 200: pivotal week looms for Australia’s benchmark stock index

An uneventful year for the ASX 200 could be about to get a lot more exciting with the index perilously close to breaking long-run uptrend support dating back to the start of the coronavirus pandemic.

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September 20, 2023 03:39 AM

AUD/USD to defy bearish breakout traders once more? Asian Open

AUD/USD is once again refusing to play nicely with breakout traders, after recouping half of yesterday's post-China data losses and recovering back above last week's lows. It is often referred to 'the battler' with good reason. The question now is whether it can continue to defy bears and muster up the strength to break above 66c to suggest a larger bullish move is underway. And inflation reports from China and the US could be key.

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USD/JPY, China A50 Analysis: Asian Open - 4th August 2023

USD/JPY formed a bearish engulfing candle yesterday to suggest all is not well around the cycle highs. Beyond that, it is likely down to NFP as to where USD/JPY finishes the week. We also look at a potential bullish setup on the China A50 which is 'turned the bearish ship around' since we noted its failure to break beneath 12,400 (despite negative sentiment).

AUD/USD pummelled during risk-off trade: Asian Open – 3rd August 2023

AUD/USD fell to an 8-week low, US indices are on track for bearish engulfing weeks and even gold closed the day lower during a risk-off session. The question in my mind as we approach the weekend is whether we’re witnessing a knee-jerk reaction to the US credit-trading downgrade and are at risk of prior trends returning, or whether it is the beginning of something more sinister.