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US dollar ponders correction as bond prices approach support

The US dollar has risen around 6% from the late December low. And with bond prices approaching support which could send yields lower, the US dollar rally could at least find some headwinds - if not a retracement.

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US Dollar analysis: More inflation data looming - Forex Friday

Dollar Index was testing a key support level as focus turns to PPI inflation after a hot CPI earlier this week. US dollar was hurt by weak retail sales on Thursday, but rising import costs is inflationary. The week ahead features global PMIs among a handful of other macro data releases.

Forex trading

Dollar and EUR/USD analysis – February 7, 2024

Dollar weakness is lacking fundamental justification, with the Dollar Index looking to bounce back as it tests key support, while EUR/USD is back to probe broken support at 1.0780, which could turn into resistance.

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February 7, 2024 03:30 PM

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US dollar analysis: NFP trounces expectations - Forex Friday

NFP trounces expectations at +353K vs. +185K expected. USD/JPY and bond yields jump, gold drops .Light macro events in week ahead.

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Gold and Dollar analysis: Forex Friday – January 26, 2024

Thanks to the positive risk tone across financial markets, the US dollar has struggled to hold onto its gains made in response to mostly positive data showing a resilient economy. Yet, it hasn’t sold off either, with many traders expecting the FOMC and its Chairman Jerome Powell to push back against early rate cut bets next week. For this exact reason, gold has been unable to find any lasting support, with traders happy to take quick profits in either direction.

Forex trading

EUR/USD and dollar analysis: Forex Friday – January 19, 2024

EUR/USD is holding above the 200-day average amid improved risk appetite with Nasdaq hitting a record high. The US dollar rally pauses ahead of UoM Consumer Sentiment survey, and next week’s key events that include include the ECB rate decision, global PMIs, US GDP and core PCE price index.

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January 19, 2024 12:30 PM
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USD rally pauses for breath, DAX finds stability amidst the noise

We're seeing early signs that the US dollar rally could be losing steam and indices such as the DAX are finding stability. Whilst too early to pick out trend reversals, it does suggest that sentiment of this week is quietly changing.

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Can the US dollar break out of its range? The Week Ahead

At the time of writing, the US dollar has printed its smallest weekly range since September 2021 at just 69 points. And that is quite remarkable when you consider it has landed on a US inflation report week. Yet daily seasonal data has reveal January 15th to have delivered the strongest average returns and win rate for the month. And that date so happens to be this coming Monday.

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January 12, 2024 05:21 AM

US dollar analysis: Can the dollar defy the gravity of seasonality?

Traditionally the US dollar falls into year end. But with it having fallen -5% this quarter already, has it had enough of a beating?

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December 21, 2023 05:37 AM
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US dollar index approaches its 200-day MA as EUR/USD eyes resistance

With the US dollar continuing to soften during Monday’s Asian trade, we now wait to see if it can help EUR/USD break above a key resistance level. But with the 200-day MA nearby for the US dollar index, it might may hit a bump in the road.

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November 20, 2023 04:26 AM
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USD moves cautiously higher (for now) ahead of Fed speakers

We’ve seen a slight recovery in the US dollar, but this is to be expected following such a sharp selloff heading into the weekend. But with resistance looming, USD could be setting up for a potential swing trade short over the near term.

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November 8, 2023 12:37 AM
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Dollar analysis: FOMC and key data puts greenback in sharp focus

The resilience of US data we have seen over the past couple of weeks hasn’t led to any further appreciation in interest rate expectations, keeping the dollar in an overall holding pattern with a slight bullish tilt, especially against the weaker currencies like the JPY and EUR. But the likes of the AUD and previously CHF have shown some resilience, perhaps suggesting that most of the positivity may be priced in for the greenback.

November 1, 2023 04:29 PM
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US dollar analysis: GBP/USD, USD/CAD and EUR/USD outlook – Forex Friday

Welcome to another edition of Forex Friday, a weekly report in which we highlight selected currency themes. In this week’s report, we will focus on the US dollar analysis, and provide updates on the GBP/USD, USD/CAD and EUR/USD outlook, before looking ahead to the next week. We maintain a bearish outlook on the US dollar and would favour looking for bullish setups on high-beta currencies.

EUR/USD outlook improves as US jobs point to peak Fed rates – FOREX Friday

So, the US jobs data was mixed and the probability of a rate hike in September fell to 13% from about 20% prior to the data release. Correspondingly, the US dollar and bond yields fell, gold rallied, and stocks stabilised somewhat.

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August 4, 2023 04:45 PM
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Dollar analysis: Gold and EUR/USD outlook in focus - Nonfarm Payrolls Preview

All eyes will turn to the US jobs report on Friday, as the market refocuses on Fed policy after the Fitch downgrade of US credit rating caused a risk off response in the markets, which sent the dollar and long-dated bond yields surging higher. The US dollar, gold and EUR/USD outlook could be impacted if we see a jobs report that deviates significantly from expectations.

Dollar outlook: DXY, USD/CHF and USD/JPY analysis ahead of CPI

While it is down now, the US dollar outlook is subject to change depending on the outlook of the data.

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USD/CAD outlook: All eyes on jobs reports – FOREX Friday

Welcome to another edition of Forex Friday, a weekly report in which we discuss selected currency themes mainly from a macro viewpoint, but we also throw in a pinch of technical analysis here and there. In this week’s shortened report, we will discuss the USD/CAD pair outlook, and look forward to next week’s key events affecting this pair.

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US dollar forecast: No signs of reversal yet

Unlike equities, the FX markets are not so cheerful about US debt ceiling talks, with the greenback continuing to rise against risk-sensitive currencies like the AUD, GBP and EUR. But will the US dollar forecast turn more bearish moving forward?

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May 18, 2023 02:30 PM
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Dollar forecast: USD loses more ground on peak inflation signs

We will have more US data in the form of retail sales and consumer confidence on Friday to impact the dollar forecast.

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April 13, 2023 03:31 PM
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European Open: US data to retain its grip on the US dollar?

The USD has been under pressure the past 48 hours as fears of a US recession have resurfaced, which puts today’s ADP employment and IMS services report back in focus.

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April 5, 2023 06:53 AM
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USD/JPY: Dollar likely to resume higher after slow start

Dollar was bouncing off earlier lows, supported by even more positive news – this time from the housing market.

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FOMC minutes instant insight: A touch of hawkishness leaves a 50bps rate hike on the table

There is nothing in these FOMC minutes that should keep the central bank from raising interest rates “higher for longer” if US economic data continues to come in stronger than expected.

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February 22, 2023 07:21 PM
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Markets mixed as investors eye bigger events

Investors will be looking forward to a busier session on Tuesday.

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February 20, 2023 01:07 PM