GER40

Earnings have helped to lift the mood so far in today's session, but risk appetite could be limited amid ongoing geopolitical risks and uncertainty over interest rates outlook. DAX technical analysis shows the German index is still residing in a bearish channel, despite the bounce.

The S&P 500 extends losses to third week amid raised geopolitical risks and rising bond yields. Concerns over the escalation of the situation in the Middle East is at the forefront of investors’ minds. The situation remains volatile with Israel seeking revenge for Iran’s retaliatory attacks on Saturday.

DAX technical levels and factors to watch on the German index as it tests the pivotal 18,000 level with the focus turning on the ECB rate decision, while US sticky inflation concerns make unwelcome return ahead of PPI data.

German DAX index makes a sluggish start to Q2 after a sharp 5-month rally amid profit-taking, as correction risks linger. DAX technical analysis suggests more evidence is needed to confirm at least a short-term high has been hit.

What has driven the German index to record highs and can the rally persist? US investors are back, with Nvidia earnings coming into focus this week. DAX technical analysis shows index is testing key support.

The German index hit another record high on Friday, but the risk of a potential correction in tech sector is increasing. For now, the DAX continues to point higher, which means the bears must continue to wait for the right signal.

Risk appetite diminishes after some disappointing earnings, while China’s deflation threat held back equities ahead of Lunar holidays despite stimulus measures. DAX technical analysis point to fading bullish momentum at all-time highs, just as the S&P 500 nears the 5000 mark following a sharp tech-fueled rally.

DAX outlook: Dovish ECB could support European stocks, as promising signs emerge for global indices after slow start for risk assets in 2024. DAX technical outlook points to a new record high.

Price action on USD/JPY has remained confined to a range since its volatile selloff from 150, but we note a pivotal area worth keeping an eye on today for potential bullish or bearish setups. And whilst the DAX has bounced since its fall to 15k, bulls seem to lack legs which has us on guard for a potential swing high.

The slight recovery in European indices can be attributed to an oversold technical bounce, meaning we could see the selling pressure resume once again. In fact, there is a risk that things could get worse before stock prices become attractive again in these tough economic times.

Risk off is the key theme in the markets right now and we are seeing stock averages continue to struggle. Despite yesterday’s tech-fuelled rally, US futures have been dragged lower by weaker European and Asian markets. The FTSE 100 fell 1.4%, while the German DAX was off by around 1% at the time of writing by mid-morning EU trade.

European stock markets were able to recoup Tuesday’s sharp losses in the first half of Wednesday’s session, which also helped to fuel a modest recovery in the risk-sensitive EUR/USD pair. Sentiment improved for two reasons, but whether the recovery will hold remains to be seen.

After Monday’s positive close, the “risk off” trade returned Tuesday as European stocks and US futures slid. The Italian stock markets fell more than 2.5% to lead Europe lower. We saw noticeable falls for the Germany DAX and other leading indices in the region. The risk-off tone kept the dollar underpinned, which weighed down on the commodities like copper, gold and oil.

Today we will get technical on the USD/JPY and EUR/USD outlook and provide analysis on the FTSE and DAX outlook.

With the US out celebrating Independence Day holiday, it should be a quieter day than usual as several key markets will be closed for trading. With that in mind, this edition of Technical Tuesday is going to be a lighter one. We will get technical on the gold outlook and provide analysis on the FTSE and DAX.

Thanks to weakening Chinese manufacturing data, we have seen fresh falls in crude oil and some base metals, hurting energy stocks and miners. Our short-term DAX outlook is therefore bearish given growing worries over the health of the world's second largest economy.

Whilst the DAX is on track for a monthly bearish reversal candle around record highs, we see the potential for a near-term bounce on lower timeframes.