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Crude oil analysis: WTI drops amid demand concerns

Middle East concerns should keep the downside limited for crude oil, after prices slid 3% as demand concerns intensified on weaker Chinese industrial data and amid the prospects of higher interest rates for longer. WTI technical analysis suggests the longer-term trend remains bullish, with the first short-term support level to watch coming in around $82 area.

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DAX outlook remains unfavourable despite support from earnings

Earnings have helped to lift the mood so far in today's session, but risk appetite could be limited amid ongoing geopolitical risks and uncertainty over interest rates outlook. DAX technical analysis shows the German index is still residing in a bearish channel, despite the bounce.


EUR/USD, DAX may be down – but they’re not fully out

The US dollar has dominated sentiment for markets this past week, but with signs of momentum waning there may be hope for a rebound on EUR/USD and DAX - even if only minor.

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WTI crude oil forecast: Price action unconvincing despite strong tailwinds, fat tail risks

Crude oil appears toppy after a mammoth rally since February, unable to push higher despite some seriously strong tailwinds stemming from geopolitics, supply curbs and ongoing strength in the US economy.

Nasdaq 100 Forecast: “Magnificent Seven” Q1 2024 Earnings Preview

The Nasdaq 100 is finally showing signs of breaking down from its 2-month sideways range between about 17,800 and 18,400 ahead of the Magnificent Seven stocks' earnings reports.

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Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and DAX analysis: Technical Tuesday - April 16, 2024

The S&P 500 extends losses to third week amid raised geopolitical risks and rising bond yields. Concerns over the escalation of the situation in the Middle East is at the forefront of investors’ minds. The situation remains volatile with Israel seeking revenge for Iran’s retaliatory attacks on Saturday.


GBP/USD, Oil Forecast: Two trades to watch

GBP/USD held at a five-month low after jobs data and ahead of Fed Chair Powell's speech. Oil rose after China's GDP growth and amid ongoing Middle Eastern tensions.


USD/JPY eyes 155, WTI crude oil looks set to bounce: Asian Open

USD/JPY is less than a day's trade from 155, a level an ex-FX diplomat warned could trigger an intervention if breached. WTI crude oil seems to have solid support above $84, to hint at a swing low.

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April 15, 2024 11:48 PM

USD/JPY forecast: New threat emerges as biggest risk to the rally

Sitting at 34-year highs and with market positioning nearing extreme levels, further USD/JPY upside is likely predicted on two factors this week: ongoing US economic exceptionalism and no dramatic escalation in Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions.

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April 15, 2024 04:08 AM
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US dollar, yen, VIX, gold, crude oil analysis: COT report – April 15, 2024

Net-short exposure to yen futures rose to a 16-year high last week, and now within reach of its record. Asset managers appear to be on the right side of the US dollar trade, with large speculators remaining net-short despite the dollar's rally. Net-long exposure for oil and gold futures continued to trend higher, but neither are at levels which screams sentiment extreme. And asset managers are on the cusp of flipping to net-long exposure to the VIX.


Gold price reversal resembles blow-off top into escalating geopolitical tensions

Big, ugly and unusual given the escalation in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. You can see why traders are questioning whether the big reversal in gold last Friday may signal we’ve seen a near-term top after a rollicking start to 2024.


Weekly equities forecast: Netflix, Bank of America, Procter & Gamble

Earnings season starts to ramp up this week with earnings from Netflix, Bank of America, and Procter & Gamble are among those reports that investors will be watching closely.

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April 14, 2024 09:20 PM

DJIA, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 Forecast: US Indices Falter on War Fears

US indices are seeing diverging performance, with the DJIA looking relatively weak and the Nasdaq 100 uptrend remaining healthy.

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EUR/USD forecast: Divergent interest rate outlook, geopolitics deliver potent bearish mix

With most major events scheduled outside the continent, EUR/USD direction looks set to be dictated by external influences next week. Preference is to sell rallies given the technical breakdown on Friday.

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April 13, 2024 09:00 PM

Gold and silver are doing exactly what you’d expect after breaking key resistance

Gold and silver are doing exactly what you’d expect after breaking long-running resistance. And that's before you consider fundamentals such as geopolitics, central bank purchases, limited mine development, rising inflation expectations and troubling fiscal outlooks from some of the world’s largest economies.

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April 12, 2024 05:51 AM

USD/JPY closes above 153 for the first time since 1990: Asian Open

Another day, another milestone for USD/JPY which closed above 152 for the first time in nearly 34 years on Thursday.

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April 12, 2024 12:15 AM
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DAX analysis: German index tests 18K support ahead of ECB and more US inflation data

DAX technical levels and factors to watch on the German index as it tests the pivotal 18,000 level with the focus turning on the ECB rate decision, while US sticky inflation concerns make unwelcome return ahead of PPI data.

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April 11, 2024 11:30 AM

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EUR/USD, USD/JPY Forecast: Two trades to watch

EUR/USD looks to ECB rate decision after hot US inflation. USD/JPY rises to 153.24 post US CPI & ahead of PPI.

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April 11, 2024 09:43 AM
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EUR/USD, DAX forecast: ECB, US PPI and Fed speakers on tap

All eyes are on today's ECB meeting, Fed speakers and US PPI figures to see if it can drive ERUR/USD lower or spark a rebound, after it suffered its worst day in 13 months on Wednesday.


USD/JPY upside looks compelling if not for the BOJ intervention threat

Whether you look at fundamentals or technicals, the case for USD/JPY is compelling. But the threat of BOJ intervention has not gone away, making for a tricky environment for traders to navigate. However, the volatility it generates creates multiple trade setups depending on your preferred timeframe.

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April 11, 2024 01:36 AM
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USD/JPY, FTSE Forecast: Two trades to watch

USD/JPY looks to US CPI data, FTSE shrugs off China’s credit rating downgrade.

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April 10, 2024 09:46 AM
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EUR/USD, USD/CHF, Crude Oil key levels heading into US inflation, FOMC mins

The economic calendar is beginning to ramp up with a key US inflation report, Fed members speaking ahead of the FOMC minutes and a BOC cash rate decision. Today we look at key levels for EUR/USD, USD/CHF and crude oil.

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April 10, 2024 07:07 AM

DAX, GBP/USD Forecast: Two trades to watch

DAX rises as stagnation appears to be ending, GBP/USD struggles amid signs of wage growth easing.