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USD/JPY forecast: Fed rates outlook resumes control, eyes on payrolls, ISM services
Directional risks for USD/JPY look set to be driven by economic data this week, helping to shape opinions on the US interest rate outlook given an absence of Fed speakers. With nonfarm payrolls and ISM services data to navigate, the environment looked primed for increased volatility.
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Gold weekly forecast: Hawkish Fed rates repricing generates asymmetric dovish risks
The price action in gold last week warns of growing downside risks. But with markets significantly scaling back Fed rate cut bets, it's now up to incoming data to justify why rates should be left on hold. If it can't, it points to US dollar weakness and lower US bond yields, and likely tailwinds for commodity markets.
![Graphic of trading data chart](/en-uk/-/media/research/global/news-analysis/featured-image/2021/03/charts6v2.jpg?h=300&w=1170&hash=0ED200250399A6BD2CFF18E940CCF98E)
European Open: EUR/USD and EUR/GBP in focus for eurozone CPI
Both EUR/GBP and EUR/GBP are hugging various pivot points ahead of the open, but whichever way they break initially our bias is for a break to new lows.
![Gold nuggets](/en-uk/-/media/research/global/news-analysis/featured-image/2021/03/gold2v2.jpg?h=300&w=1170&hash=4CC5222F1336CB67F7FAF953100194A5)
Two trades to watch: EUR/USD, Gold
EUR/USD falls ahead of German inflation data, central bank speak. Gold looks to Fed Powell & Co at the ECB forum.
![Feature image of stock market figures and indices](/en-uk/-/media/project/gain-capital/shared/news-and-analysis/stocks1v2.jpg?h=300&w=1170&hash=8240C9D6B7202600557A8BAA31CD88D4)
Hang Seng enters bull market but resistance looms
Whilst the promise of fiscal stimulus propelled Asian markets higher, news of Shanghai’s lockdown risks denting sentiment for the region.
![Feature image of stock market figures and indices](/en-uk/-/media/project/gain-capital/shared/news-and-analysis/stocks1v2.jpg?h=300&w=1170&hash=8240C9D6B7202600557A8BAA31CD88D4)
The Hang Seng leads the way (lower), 13k key for Nasdaq 100
Volatility for European and parts of Asia remain high for equity traders, yet US markets have shown minor signs of stability above key support levels.
![Feature image of stock market figures and indices](/en-uk/-/media/project/gain-capital/shared/news-and-analysis/stocks1v2.jpg?h=300&w=1170&hash=8240C9D6B7202600557A8BAA31CD88D4)
The Hang Seng remains in freefall, Alibaba below 100
There seems to be little reprieve for investors in China with the Hang Seng falling to a post-pandemic low and Alibaba trading below 100.
![Feature image of stock market figures and indices](/en-uk/-/media/project/gain-capital/shared/news-and-analysis/stocks1v2.jpg?h=300&w=1170&hash=8240C9D6B7202600557A8BAA31CD88D4)
Alibaba falls towards key support ahead of earnings
Alibaba is expected to report earnings for Q4 tomorrow, and it is likely to directly impact which way momentum turns from a key support level it currently hovers above.
![Feature image of stock market figures and indices](/en-uk/-/media/project/gain-capital/shared/news-and-analysis/stocks1v2.jpg?h=300&w=1170&hash=8240C9D6B7202600557A8BAA31CD88D4)
China’s inflation softens, Metaverse looks to grow
Inflationary forces in China continued to defy global trends as both CPI and PPI data were down from last month.
![Feature image of stock market figures and indices](/en-uk/-/media/project/gain-capital/shared/news-and-analysis/stocks1v2.jpg?h=300&w=1170&hash=8240C9D6B7202600557A8BAA31CD88D4)
The Hang Seng and Nikkei go their separate ways
The Hang Seng and Nikkei are like oil and water at the moment, with the former rising 10% from its lows and the latter falling 7% from its January high.
![UK Union Jack Flag alongside some European Union flags](/en-uk/-/media/research/global/news-analysis/featured-image/2021/03/brexit2.jpg?h=300&w=1170&hash=A16F0CABCE5C89606DCCBA323A0D43B3)
Brexit a year later: What's the UK economic outlook and how can you capitalize in 2022?
Supply chain bottlenecks, labour shortages, surging inflation and slowing growth -the UK economy has a lot to contend with as it heads into 2022. Here we look these factors in more depth and what they mean for the pound and the FTSE.
![Feature image of stock market figures and indices](/en-uk/-/media/project/gain-capital/shared/news-and-analysis/stocks1v2.jpg?h=300&w=1170&hash=8240C9D6B7202600557A8BAA31CD88D4)
Asian indices hold key support, but for how long?
Several key markets have reached key support levels across Asia, so traders need to decide whether to buy at these lows or try and break them down further.
![Feature image of stock market figures and indices](/en-uk/-/media/project/gain-capital/shared/news-and-analysis/stocks1v2.jpg?h=300&w=1170&hash=8240C9D6B7202600557A8BAA31CD88D4)
Hang Seng Enters Correction as Sentiment Sours
Asian equities were mostly lower yesterday as multiple drivers weighed on sentiment across the region. Futures markets are also pointing to a softer open today.
![Forex trading](/en-uk/-/media/research/global/news-analysis/featured-image/2021/03/forex10v2.jpg?h=300&w=1170&hash=126832F100584F0C85C35A39336313AC)
Housing data may start to worry investors; 30-year yields, USD/JPY
However, the Jackson Hole Symposium may be the catalyst bond traders are waiting for to determine their next move
![UK Union Jack Flag alongside some European Union flags](/en-uk/-/media/research/global/news-analysis/featured-image/2021/03/brexit2.jpg?h=300&w=1170&hash=A16F0CABCE5C89606DCCBA323A0D43B3)
EU to UK: No more sausages for you!
If negotiations between the EU and UK over the NI protocol don’t end soon, the Pound may fall further
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China shucks US corn; commodity currencies lower
China said they would limit some corn imports and cancel several US cargos
![5 corn on the cobs](/en-uk/-/media/research/global/news-analysis/featured-image/2021/03/commodities13.jpg?h=300&w=1170&hash=A17C8502F236194494BAFB122F092FD2)
Corn at 7-year highs. Will it continue?
Don’t be surprised if it pulls back first given the overbought conditions on the weekly timeframe.
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Currency pair of the week: EUR/USD
Just as with Europe, a crisis (Brexit) has been averted in the US (stimulus package)
![UK Union Jack Flag alongside some European Union flags](/en-uk/-/media/research/global/news-analysis/featured-image/2021/03/brexit4.jpg?h=300&w=1170&hash=BF6271E0D0E4DBCB854CE6387BFE2FD4)
Two trades to watch: FTSE, GBP/USD ahead of expected Brexit trade deal
After 4.5 years a Brexit trade deal is expected to be announced today. FTSE is pointing to a stronger start whilst GBP/USD eyes 2020 high
![UK Union Jack Flag alongside some European Union flags](/en-uk/-/media/research/global/news-analysis/featured-image/2021/03/brexit2.jpg?h=300&w=1170&hash=A16F0CABCE5C89606DCCBA323A0D43B3)
Brexit deal could be reached by Christmas: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP
“Sources” say a Brexit trade deal is “imminent”.
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What lies ahead for the US dollar in 2021
We would like to take this opportunity to wish all our readers and their families a safe and happy holiday period. As markets are expected to remain volatile into the Georgia Senate run-off on the 5th of January, regular updates will resume next week, the 28th of December.
![UK Union Jack Flag alongside some European Union flags](/en-uk/-/media/research/global/news-analysis/featured-image/2021/03/brexit10.jpg?h=600&w=1170&hash=CDFDF414123C13870381FFDA7A67F857)
Markets numb to Brexit talk: EUR/USD, GBP/USD
Traders are tired of Brexit officials’ comments. They want to see action.