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Japanese Yen Forecast: USD/JPY Rally Nears 155 – Is the BOJ “The Boy Who Cried Wolf?”

For USD/JPY, the next test to watch will be at 155.00, and if the MOF/BOJ fail to act if USD/JPY breaches that level, traders may start to turn their eyes up to 160.00 next


USD/JPY upside looks compelling if not for the BOJ intervention threat

Whether you look at fundamentals or technicals, the case for USD/JPY is compelling. But the threat of BOJ intervention has not gone away, making for a tricky environment for traders to navigate. However, the volatility it generates creates multiple trade setups depending on your preferred timeframe.

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April 11, 2024 01:36 AM
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AUD/JPY, EUR/JPY: Bearish breakout risk grows on BOJ intervention threat

AUD/JPY and EUR/JPY are sandwiched between range highs and uptrend support, meaning traders should be on alert for potential bearish and bullish breakout this week with big event risk in the United States and Europe approaching fast.

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April 8, 2024 07:04 AM

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USD/JPY forecast: BOJ intervention risk, geopolitics cap upside despite US inflation threat

USD/JPY sits in a narrow trading range, sandwiched by bullish fundamentals and threat of intervention from the Bank of Japan to support the yen. The latter has reduced the odds of near-term upside for USD/JPY despite the release of important inflation updates in the United States this week.

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April 5, 2024 11:21 PM
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USD/JPY: Selling rallies far easier than buying dips given the growing threat of BOJ intervention

With the threat of BOJ intervention elevated and seemingly increasing, buying USD/JPY right now screens as high risk and low reward. Selling rallies ahead of 152 looks a far stronger trade setup, especially when you consider how significant the US rates repricing has already been this year.

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April 4, 2024 01:03 AM

USD/JPY forecast: Stalemate looms on BOJ intervention threat, range trading favoured

The threat of intervention from the BOJ has increased, likely limiting upside for USD/JPY in the near to medium-term. But extremely wide interest rate differentials and buoyant markets suggest it shouldn’t be significantly lower. It points to a stalemate for yen bulls and bears but opens the door for traders to play existing ranges.

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March 27, 2024 11:52 PM

USD/JPY forecast: Japan’s weak yen headache risks becoming a full-blown migraine

Japanese officials are once again attempting to talk down the high-flying USD/JPY, arguing moves over the past few weeks do not reflect fundamentals but speculative activity. Sitting in a technical pattern that points the risk of substantial upside ahead, their weak yen headache may soon turn into a full-blown migraine.

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March 25, 2024 11:40 PM

Japanese yen slides post BOJ, do we need to be on intervention alert?

The fact that the yen was broadly weaker following the BOJ's historic hike shows that it was not only priced in, but traders wanted more. Yet the rapid weakness of the yen brings back a familiar question; will the BOJ begin verbal intervention?

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March 19, 2024 10:17 PM

USD/JPY analysis: What’s next for JPY and USD amid diverging policies?

Will the yen make a comeback with BoJ finally ending negative rates? Attention now turns to FOMC policy decision, with traders expecting the median dot plots to point to 2 rate cuts in 2024 – but is a hawkish Fed already priced in? USD/JPY technical analysis points higher, but do watch out for a potential false breakout.

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March 19, 2024 04:30 PM

USD/JPY, Nikkei 225: BOJ scraps negative rates but not bond buys, pressuring yen

A historic day for Japanese markets with the Bank of Japan (BOJ) hiking interest rates for the first time since 2007, doing away with negative interest rates in the process. It’s now over to the Fed to drive the price action over the remainder of the week.

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March 19, 2024 04:21 AM
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USD/JPY analysis: BoJ and FOMC Meetings Key Focus in Financial Markets – Currency Pair of the Week

The USD/JPY will face a major test in the week ahead, with both the Bank of Japan and US Federal Reserve set to make monetary policy decisions a day apart. The USD/JPY has managed to recover strongly, rising from around 146.50 to above 149.00 in a few days. The recovery has been driven in part because of a rebound in bond yields a stronger dollar.


Nikkei 225 longs favoured into BOJ and Fed rate decisions, Nvidia GPU conference

Recent price action in Nikkei 225 futures points to upside risks this week, indicating confidence among traders that even with major events such as rate decisions from the Bank of Japan and Federal Reserve, along with Nvidia’s GPU Technology Conference, the bull market that helped propel the underlying index to record highs is anything but finished.

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March 17, 2024 11:23 PM

USD/JPY Forecast: BOJ and Fed Enter the Arena, Yields in Focus

USD/JPY's key technical levels to watch in the coming days include possible resistance at 149.70 and 151.00, with support down at 148.70 and 145.85.

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Central Bank galore with BOJ, Fed, BOE, SNB and RBA on tap: The Week Ahead

It is a monster week ahead for traders with a key focus on central banks, with BOJ, Fed, BOE and RBA meetings on the menu.

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March 15, 2024 04:42 AM
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Japanese Yen Forecast: USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, and GBP/JPY in Play Ahead of BOJ

The long-awaited results from the Japan’s spring wage negotiations are winding down, and the results are generally what the BOJ wanted to see to exit its ultra-accommodative monetary policy. See the key levels to watch on USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, and GBP/JPY!

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USD/JPY: Intensifying disinflationary pulse pressures BOJ rate hike ambitions

Underlying disinflationary pressures in Tokyo intensified last month, pointing to the likelihood of similar trends nationally and underscoring the need for wage growth to reach sufficient levels to boost flagging consumer demand.

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March 5, 2024 02:12 AM

USD/JPY forecast: What sparks fresh highs when conditions are already exceptionally good?

USD/JPY remains supported on dips but where does the next leg higher come from? The US rate outlook has adjusted substantially, pushing yields rapidly higher. With risk appetite nearing euphoric levels, it begs the question: will conditions get any better for bulls than now?

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March 2, 2024 09:00 AM

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USD/JPY, Nikkei 225: BOJ negative rate watch shouldn’t rank highly for traders

Focusing on whether the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will scrap negative interest rates should be low on the list of priorities for USD/JPY traders to consider right now. It’s not as important as it’s portrayed to be, creating plenty of noise for an event that could pass without generating significant market volatility.

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February 28, 2024 04:40 AM

USD/JPY outlook hinges on continued US interest rate recalibration

The Japanese yen continues to dance to the tune of US interest rate expectations and broader risk sentiment, meaning events that may influence either of those areas should be the focus for USD/JPY traders this week.

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February 24, 2024 08:00 AM

Ducks have lined up for Nikkei 225 to test its 1989 high

If there was ever a day for Japan’s Nikkei 225 to overcome its demons and take out the record high set in December 1989, few screen better than today. The ducks look to have lined up for bulls. If we can’t set a new peak, it may provide a subtle warning that the market has run too hard, too fast.

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February 21, 2024 10:54 PM

GBP/JPY: Eying bullish break to multi-year highs ahead of key economic reports

GBP/JPY is on the cusp of breaking to fresh multi-year highs ahead of key inflation and employment data from the United Kingdom and Japan, making this a pair to keep on the radar over the next 48 hours.

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February 12, 2024 11:31 PM

USD/JPY, Nikkei trading heavy as news flow bolsters case for BOJ rate hike

Japan has received a raft of bullish economic news today, sending Japanese government bond yields higher while simultaneously placing downward pressure on USD/JPY and the Nikkei 225.

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January 24, 2024 05:41 AM
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GBP/JPY teases 2015 high post BOJ, Crude oil eyes $77: European open

The US dollar and yen were the weakest FX majors during the Asian session, following reports of China stimulus and no change in policy from the BOJ. GBP/JPY has probed a key resistance level and crude oil shows the potential to extend yesterday's gains.