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Gold
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Gold forecast: Metal aims to recover with core PCE data on tap
In today's gold forecast, we're witnessing a small rebound not only in gold prices but also across various asset classes, including the major European stock averages while yesterday saw crude oil recovery strongly to close around 1% higher.
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Gold bugs could be seeking dips as sentiment remains fragile
Whilst gold has been under pressure over the past two days, there surely comes a point where dip buyers may want to seek the safety of the precious metal. And I suspect we’re very close to that point.
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Gold forecast: Technical Tuesday – July 23, 2024
Later in the week, we will have the release of global PMIs, US GDP and the Fed’s favourite inflation measure – core PCE price index – all of which having the potential to impact the short-term gold forecast.
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Gold was overbought weeks ago, according to this measure
Gold futures traders waded into the metal ahead of the record high set last week. But if we adjust large speculative positioning for open interest, it turns out they reached a record level of bullish exposure five weeks ago.
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Gold forecast: Metals drops but bullish trend intact
Gold's failure to hold above the previous record highs has raised some concern that the metal may have hit a peak. However, I am doubtful that is the case and expect the precious metal to bounce back, potentially reaching a new record soon. So, my gold forecast remains bullish as before despite the metal extending lower at the start of this week.
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GBP/USD, USD/JPY, VIX, gold analysis from the weekly COT report
Large speculators surged into GBP/USD long bets last week, pushing net-long exposure to a record high and at the fastest weekly pace since records began. They also continued to trim net-short exposure to yen futures for a second week, after it nearly reached a record high of its own.
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WTI crude bulls regain their footing, gold trips over its ATH
A combination of factors drew WTI crude oil bulls from the side line on Wednesday, which brings $85 back into focus. Gold didn’t have such luck despite hitting a record high the day prior.
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How Could the US Presidential Election Impact Markets? A 40-Year Study Looking at 5 Key Markets
At a high level, the US dollar has not shown a consistent trend of strengthening or weakening in one month before, one week after, one month after, or one quarter after US Presidential Election days over the last 10 elections.
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AUD/USD probes support, Gold, Dow Jones burst to record highs in style
AUD/USD probed a key support level after erasing most of the past six days of gains in just two. And that suggests there could be further downside before bulls step back in. The combination of strong earnings, dovish Fed comments and softer Canadian CPI was enough to push gold and the Dow Jones to record highs, which enjoyed their strongest day's performance in 4 months and 13 months respectively.
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Gold outlook: Precious metal edges closer to May ATH
Our gold outlook remains positive. The metal’s performance has been bolstered by a weaker dollar and reduced bond yields. Its strong gains in 2024 have reinforced its status as a reliable asset for wealth preservation amidst rising prices.
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Gold outlook: Metal could hit a new record high
Gold turned positive on the session after a quiet start, testing short-term resistance around $2420 at the time of writing.
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EUR/USD, AUD/USD traders flipped to net-long exposure: COT report
Large speculators flipped to net-long exposure to EUR/USD futures after a 2-week hiatus, whilst AUD/USD breached the bullish threshold for the first time in three years according to the commitment of traders report (COT).
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Gold weekly forecast: Powell pivot to power fresh record highs?
Rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve are back driving the gold price, making it a relatively easy task of knowing what to focus on in the week ahead. The challenge is knowing how they may evolve given multiple rate cuts are already priced over the remainder of the year.
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EUR/USD firms up ahead of US CPI, gold appears hesitant to reclaim 2400
It seems there is already excitement in the air for a soft CPI report, with EUR/USD rising in today’s Asian session. But if CPI delivers an upside surprise, gold may be the better bet for bears over the near term.
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Gold, Silver Analysis: Precious Metals Poised to Break Out?
This week’s marquee economic release, the US CPI report, looms large as a potential breakout catalyst for Silver and Gold tomorrow.
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Gold and silver primed for upside when the dovish Fed pivot arrives
Gold and silver have been strongly correlated with copper futures over the past fortnight. The negative correlation with the US dollar index, US two-year Treasury yields and Fed funds futures curve has also strengthened. Combined, it suggests base and precious metals are once again being driven by the US interest rate outlook.
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Yen, AUD/USD, Gold, Dow Jones Analysis: COT report
Large speculators were on the cusp of reaching a record level of net-short exposure to yen futures last week, whilst they're also getting close to reaching net-long exposure to AUD/USD futures.
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Silver forecast: gold and silver set stage to extend 2024 gains
This week, it is all about US inflation, which puts the dollar and dollar-denominated assets like gold and silver in sharp focus. Despite their weaker start to the week, gold and silver may have long ways to go on the upside, I reckon. Our gold and silver forecast both remain positive.
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Gold, silver, copper could break to new highs if Powell, CPI allow
Key risk events this week include Jerome Powell’s testimony to the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday and a CPI report. Should Powell strike a dovish tone and CPI data come in soft, gold, silver and copper could be poised to rally.
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Gold coils ahead of NFP, ASX looks set to retrace
Gold's rally paused for breath below resistance ahead of NFP, where volatility is expected. The ASX bumped its head at resistance and looks primed for a retracement lower during what could be a quiet session ahead of NFP.
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Gold hovers around a monthly high ahead of tomorrow's NFP
Gold is trading modestly higher in light electronic trade owing to the US Independence Day holiday, US stock markets and treasury markets are closed. Revived hopes of a Fed rate cut and ongoing central bank buying support the precious meta.
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Gold and Silver forecast: Metals extend gains ahead of key US data
Today’s data dump includes the ADP private payrolls, unemployment claims, factory orders and ISM services PMI. Friday will see the release of the June payrolls data. Judging by a weaker US dollar (outside of the USD/JPY pair), it looks like investors are expecting this week’s data to be overall on the weaker side. In any case, our bullish gold and silver forecast remain unchanged.
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Gold forecast: Could the metal shine more brightly in July?
Today’s flattish performance of gold mirrors that of last month when gold traded mixed but managed to end as flat as a pancake by the close of play on Friday. The Dollar Index posted a slight monthly gain, indicating that gold investors largely ignored the dollar's strength. Throughout June, gold traded within a narrow range, peaking just above $2387 and bottoming just below $2287.