Indices market

Where the US dollar index goes, USD/CNH follows. And if we're treated to a softer set of US CPI figures, it could prompt a pullback on both. This also coincides with a series of bullish clues on the China A50 index.

Investors are still cautious despite reports that Trump will be considering a more gradual ramp-up in trade tariffs in order to avert inflation spikes. So, more price action is needed to confirm a low has been hit, as this could just turn out to be an oversold recovery – especially given the recent bearish price action across several US indices. Thus, it is too early to turn positive again on the Nasdaq 100 outlook.

They may have come close to testing the limits of my bearish bias, but we finally saw momentum turn south for EUR/AUD and the ASX 200. However, with Wall Street indices looking steady above key support levels, a cheeky bounce could be due before the anticipated losses resume.

The market was already repricing US interest rates higher in recent days and week, amid expectations of inflationary policies under Donald Trump, when he takes office later this month. But the surprising strength of US labour market means traders have now shifted the full pricing of the next Fed rate cut to October.

With not much in the way of macro factors to watch until the nonfarm payrolls report is released, I will provide some in-depth technical Nasdaq 100 analysis first before looking at some macro influences that could shape the markets in the weeks and months ahead.

European stocks traded mixed with Spain’s Ibex rising to a fresh weekly high and Germany’s DAX off its earlier lows at mid-day in London as government bond yields eased off their earlier highs.

The ASX 200 looks like it could be setting up for a dip lower, but whether it is a big or small dip is likely down to whether Wall Street holds above its December lows.

A decent bullish reversal candle has formed on the ASX 200 on Tuesday, which begs the question as to whether Santa’s rally is about to kick into gear. Although it is the FOMC meeting within the next 24 hours which could decide when or even if it starts at all.

Wall Street indices are just not on the same page at the moment, with the Nasdaq hitting a record high, while the S&P 500 trading sideways and the Dow chalks up its worst daily bearish streak in 12 years. And that's not good for the ASX.

USD/JPY breaks higher as surging US yields keep the yen under pressure. Nikkei 225 traders are taking note, pushing futures towards the top of the recent range before the Fed and BoJ rate decisions – is a bullish breakout on the menu?

After a strong performance throughout the year, there are still no major signs of the trend turning bearish for the S&P 500 heading into the final weeks of the 2024. For that reason, we have no reason to adjust our S&P 500 forecast to bearish just yet from a technical point of view, even macro concerns are plentiful.

AUD/USD made a minor recovery from its 13-month low late on Wednesday, but whether it can muster up the strength for a decent bounce likely sits in the hands of USD/CNH. Although the ASX 200 could be set for a bounce with the Nasdaq reaching a record high and the S&P 500 close to its own ATH.

China’s policy pivot is turning heads and bosting markets, with Hang Seng and A50 futures charging ahead. As bulls eye breakouts, will this stimulus spark fizzle out or ignite a rally hotter than a Sichuan hotpot?

China's stock markets were given a nice bump on Monday after the Politburo announced an easing of policy stance. This allowed AUD/JPY and USD/JPY to deliver strong bounce from key support levels, as the yen weakened during a risk-on session for FX and commodities.

Investors are looking ahead of the all-important non-farm payrolls report on Friday. Ahead of this, there were little signs of waning appetite for risk, keeping the S&P 500 forecast and trend bullish. But as the index starts to drift higher and higher into overbought levels, investors will be wondering when the Trump trade will be fully priced in.

Today's growth figures are unlikely to force the RBA into any easing action, but it has been enough to weigh on the Australian dollar and ASX 200. And this could allow EUR/AUD to continue higher after a 4-day retracement.