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Stabilisation in commodity, US stock futures bode well for AUD/USD longs
AUD/USD has equaled its longest losing streak since August 2019, hammered by deteriorating sentiment towards the outlook for the Chinese economy and investor risk appetite, especially towards big tech. But with signs of stablisation in commodity and US stock futures, the grounds for a squeeze higher are growing.
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USD/JPY selling recedes ahead of PCE inflation, crude oil slips in a gain
USD/JPY formed a potential bullish reversal day at key support ahead of today's US inflation report. With decent GDP figures also helping crude oil prices post a decent day's gain.
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Euro Forecast: EUR/USD Digests Data, Core PCE on Tap
EUR/USD is trying to stage a bounce off the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the late-June to mid-July rally
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Japanese yen reverts to safe haven asset, USD/JPY nears key support zone
USD/JPY is on a collision course with key support, plunging for a fourth consecutive day as carry trades involving the Japanese yen are unwound. It’s the kind of move you’d normally expect to see in a crisis, although we’re not in a crisis. Yet.
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AUD/JPY tumbles like we’re in a crisis, Nikkei hammered by stronger yen
You don’t see unwinds of Japanese yen carry trades like we’re seeing right now outside of crisis periods. It doesn’t feel like we’re in a crisis, making me wonder just how long the current bearish move will last?
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USD/CAD, CAD/JPY forecast: Canadian dollar analysis - July 24, 2024
The CAD/JPY trend has turned negative following this week’s big rally in the yen, while the USD/CAD will be in focus with the release of key US data in the coming days.
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EUR/USD, EUR/JPY forecast: Weak PMIs dampens euro as yen roars back
While the euro has struggled, the Japanese yen continues to roar back higher. The strengthening yen is a reflection of tightening of bond yield spread between Japan and the rest of the world, after ballooning following the years of excessive expansionary monetary policy in Japan while the rest of the world pursued a sharp contractionary policy to combat surging inflation.
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AUD/JPY – the FX Barometer of Risk - Is in No Mood for Risk
Currently amid its worst 10-day run since the pandemic, AUD/JPY is on the ropes and desperately hoping the bell rings.
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AUD/USD resumes its role as China proxy, selling rallies preferred
AUD/USD has reverted to being a G10 FX China proxy, mirroring movements in the Chinese yuan and commodities heavily influenced by perceptions on how the world’s second-largest economy is faring, such as copper, iron ore and crude oil. Sitting on a key support zone, what happens next may determine how it fares in the latter part of the year.
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USD/JPY eyes 154 amid yen strength resurgence, PMIs on tap
Hawkish comments from Japan's government officials and a general unwind of carry trades sent the yen higher across the board on Tuesday, with USD/JPY hinting at a fresh cycle low as we head towards US GDP and inflation data this week.
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GBP/AUD stretched and nearing known reversal area
GBP/AUD is rarely as overbought as it is right now. And when it has been this overbought in the recent past, it’s usually coincided with a near-term top.
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AUD/USD and copper slump for a 6th day, ASX 200 regains balance
AUD/USD tracked copper prices lower for a sixth day, during its worst day in six weeks. Whilst both markets shows the potential for further losses, these may not be the ideal levels for bears to enter.
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USD/CNH eyes fresh highs as PBOC cuts rates, USD/JPY bullish reversal incoming?
USD/CNH is threatening to break higher after the PBOC cut key policy rates, putting a potential retest of the 2024 highs on the cards. Given its historical close correlation with USD/JPY, renewed yuan weakness could drag other Asian currencies lower against the dollar.
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GBP/USD, USD/JPY, VIX, gold analysis from the weekly COT report
Large speculators surged into GBP/USD long bets last week, pushing net-long exposure to a record high and at the fastest weekly pace since records began. They also continued to trim net-short exposure to yen futures for a second week, after it nearly reached a record high of its own.
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AUD/USD weekly outlook: The Aussie to take its cue from sentiment
I suspect we’ve entered a phase where politically-driven sentiment carries more weight than domestic data for AUD/USD. And with the VIX rising alongside political uncertainty, volatility could favour bears over the coming months as we head towards the US elections.
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EUR/USD outlook: PMIs, US GDP and Core PCE to set FX tone
In this week's EUR/USD outlook, we see important macro events in the days ahead which could set the short-term tone for this and other major FX pairs. But first, we will begin by looking at the chart to remind ourselves of the trend.
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AUD/USD, copper dragged lower with sentiment, higher US dollar
It has been a turbulent 24 hours for markets with Wall Street indices extending losses, dragging AUD/USD and copper prices lower.
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AUD/USD, AUD/JPY analysis: Yes AU unemployment rose, but…
Australian unemployment may have risen, but so did all other key metrics including job growth and the participation rate. And that has likely provided a floor for AUD/USD and AUD/JPY over the near term.
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USD/JPY extends losses on suspected intervention, DXY breaks 200-day MA
Japan’s Ministry of Finance (MOF) appears to be taking full advantage of the path of least resistance by intervening when the US dollar and yields are under pressure. And their latest suspected intervention alongside dovish Fed comments saw USD/JPY break trend support and send DXY below its 200-day MA.
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How Could the US Presidential Election Impact Markets? A 40-Year Study Looking at 5 Key Markets
At a high level, the US dollar has not shown a consistent trend of strengthening or weakening in one month before, one week after, one month after, or one quarter after US Presidential Election days over the last 10 elections.
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EUR/USD Outlook: Attention turns to ECB's policy meeting
The European Central Bank's upcoming policy decision could turn out to be an important event for the EUR/USD pair. While no rate cuts are expected this time, the ECB's stance and any forward guidance will be closely scrutinised. The previous rate cut in June was driven by concerns over economic growth and as inflation showed weakening signs.
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GBP/USD, GBP/JPY: UK CPI in focus after soft prints from NZ, CA
The UK's 1-month OIS suggests ~48% chance of a 25bp cut from the BOE next month, which means today's inflation report is likely a key driver for GBP/USD on monetary policy expectations.
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AUD/USD probes support, Gold, Dow Jones burst to record highs in style
AUD/USD probed a key support level after erasing most of the past six days of gains in just two. And that suggests there could be further downside before bulls step back in. The combination of strong earnings, dovish Fed comments and softer Canadian CPI was enough to push gold and the Dow Jones to record highs, which enjoyed their strongest day's performance in 4 months and 13 months respectively.