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USD/JPY hints at another false break, AUD/USD looks set to bounce

The US dollar index formed a small bearish inside day after once again failing to hold onto gains above 105.20 for the second day in a row. This could allow for some mean reversion for soe of its FX peers, and for today we have a potential AUD/USD long and USD/JPY short in focus.

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GBP/USD forecast: Currency Pair of the Week – June 17, 2024

The GBP/USD forecast is in focus, with the upcoming Bank of England rate decision, UK CPI, retail sales from both sides of the pond and global PMI data all on tap this week. Plus, there is the added uncertainty from the upcoming UK general election.

USD, EUR/USD, USD/CAD, Crude Oil, Dow Jones Analysis: COT report

Bears were busy last week as they piled into shorts against EUR/USD and the Dow Jones, and also reached a record level of net-short exposure to the Canadian dollar. And this was beneficial for USD bulls.

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Potential RBNZ dovish pivot no guarantee to deliver NZD/USD weakness

Markets are alert to the risk of the RBNZ switching focus, dragging NZD/USD lower. But when it comes to directional risks for the New Zealand dollar beyond the short-term, it really comes back to the US interest rate outlook and health of the global economy.

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Today 03:33 AM

AUD/USD weekly outlook: June 17th 2024

Price action remains choppy and challenging for AUD/USD traders on the daily timeframe or higher. This makes it better suited for intraday traders, or those seeking to trade the range by entering around the lows, exiting near highs or potentially fade into the for a move lower. It is not a glamorous way of trading, but for now we have clear levels AUD/USD is holding around.


USD/JPY reverses hard after BOJ disappointment, warning of potential top

The sizeable reversal in USD/JPY following the BOJ interest rate decision may be the start of a far larger move, unless you think the Federal Reserve may be forced to abandon the prospect of rate cuts this year. Given asymmetrical risks for the US rate outlook and increasingly tepid US economic data, selling USD/JPY rallies is preferred.

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Today 12:58 AM

USD/JPY spikes higher post BOJ, but be wary of false moves above 158

Traders are clearly keeping a close eye on the 158 handle after USD/JPY spiked up to it. Note that we're yet to see a daily close above 158 since late April, which landed one day before the MOF first intervened this year.

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June 14, 2024 05:42 AM
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AUD/USD looks set to pop higher, Nikkei and Nasdaq diverge

Forex markets mostly retraced against Wednesday's CPI and FOMC moves. And that may have set AUD/USD up nicely for a cheeky long into the weekend. The Nikkei however is down for a third day after failing below key resistance levels.


Japanese yen carry trades receive boost from Fed, US CPI: GBP/JPY, NZD/JPY setups

Soft US inflation and stability in the Fed interest rate outlook point to an ideal environment for renewed upside in Japanese yen FX crosses, assuming prevailing conditions don't shift meaningfully. GBP/JPY and NZD/JPY are two pairs on the radar.

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June 13, 2024 05:18 AM
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USD/JPY rattled within range post Fed, AUD/USD rallies with Wall Street

We expected a particularly volatile session on Wednesday, and it did not disappoint. Although not all moves were clear cut. New highs for Wall Street and a lower USD helped AUD/USD surge. Yet like USD/JPY, resistance looms.

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June 12, 2024 11:39 PM
Bank notes of different currencies

EUR/USD, gold key levels heading into US inflation, FOMC

The incoming US inflation report and FOMC meeting are highly anticipated events, as they can shape expectations for Fed policy beyond 2026. Volatility is expected, so we look at key levels for EUR/USD and gold ahead of these events.


USD/JPY, Nikkei pause at resistance as US CPI, FOMC looms: Asian Open

The next 24 hours will be the eight time in 10 years that a US CPI report lands on the same day as an FOMC meeting, and it has traders on tenterhooks. Today we look at USD/JPY, Nikkei 225 and the ASX 200.

DAX forecast dims amid fallout from EU elections

We have seen further widening of the bond yield spreads between German and French debt today. Investors are clearly worried about a sustained period of political uncertainty and are therefore seeking haven assets and reducing their risk exposure.

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June 11, 2024 02:30 PM

GBP/USD: Fading UK wages, unemployment data given bigger risk events ahead

GBP/USD looks set to remain in the trading range it’s been stuck in for weeks despite the arrival of wages and unemployment data from the UK later Tuesday, with traders likely to fade any significant moves ahead of the Fed interest rate decision and US inflation report on Wednesday.

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June 11, 2024 04:34 AM

AUD/USD climbs sheepishly from its lows, bear flag on ASX 200

Quiet trade (outside of euro pairs) allowed AUD/USD to drift higher despite the stronger USD. But with US CPI and FOMC looming, I doubt this is the ‘real move’ and further downside beckons.

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June 10, 2024 11:40 PM

US CPI Preview: Base Effect Could Boost USD/JPY, Core Reading Key Ahead of Fed

Ahead of CPI and the Fed, USD/JPY’s year-to-date uptrends remains intact after a bounce from support in the 155.00 area last week.

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June 10, 2024 08:06 PM
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EUR/USD forecast: Currency Pair of the Week - June 10, 2024

The markets have reacted negatively with both the CAC and euro falling following European elections turmoil and France's decision to call a snap election. Markets generally don't like uncertainty and not when far-right parties are making gains across Europe, especially in Austria, Italy and Germany.

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EUR/USD, EUR/GBP: A volatile start to week to bears’ delight

Euro pairs gapped lower at Monday's Asian open on news of Macron's snap election following painful election results for the left. EUR/USD broke beneath its 200-day EMA and EUR/GBP fell to a 22-month low.


USD, GBP/USD, Gold, Crude Oil Analysis: COT report

Traders may have reduced net-long exposure to USD futures in aggregate, but they remain net-long and a bullish reversal week formed on the USD index. We also take a look at GBP/USD, gold, WTI crude oil and US indices positioning (S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100).


AUD/USD weekly outlook: June 10th 2024

AUD/USD suffered its worst day in five weeks on Friday after a strong NFP report saw the USD wipe out a week's worth of losses in just two hours.

EUR/USD Weekly Forecast: Did the ECB Jump the Gun on Rate Cuts?

EUR/USD is holding below its rising trend line and the 50-day EMA in the 1.0820 region, hinting at the potential for more downside in the coming week.


GBP/USD forecast: Fed dot plot, US inflation set to shake things up

The Federal Reserve June FOMC meeting and US consumer price inflation for May look set to dictate directional risks for GBP/USD this week, overriding anything on the UK calendar including Britain’s unemployment report. Risks look skewed to the downside.

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June 8, 2024 09:00 PM

EUR/USD, USD/CHF probe pivotal levels, implied volatility spikes

The USD has remained under pressure thanks to softer data on aggregate prompting refreshed bets of a Fed cut in September. But with EUR/USD and USD/CHF stalling at key levels, traders may need to brace for a dollar bounce.

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June 7, 2024 07:39 AM