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USD/JPY analysis: BoJ disappoints as focus turns to intervention and US data - Forex Friday
Welcome to another edition of Forex Friday, a weekly report in which we highlight selected currency themes. In this week’s report, we will discuss the Japanese yen, US dollar and look ahead to the next week.
US Core PCE Preview: USD/JPY Flirts with 155 Ahead of Key US Inflation Report
Diverging interest rate expectations between the Federal Reserve and the rest of the developed world have been THE biggest story of the year for FX traders (USD/JPY in particular), and Friday’s Core PCE report will be the next major test to determine if that trend will carry over into Q2
Euro to US dollar analysis: Will the EUR/USD find a bottom?
Disparity between US and Eurozone PMI data bodes well for euro. For now, the US dollar has rebounded slightly ahead of GDP and core PCE data. EUR/USD technical analysis shows rates testing a pivotal area circa $1.07 - a potential break above here would be ideal for the bulls.
US dollar correction kicks in, AUD/USD firm ahead of CPI: Asian Open
The US 2-year bond yield remains support, which is capping the yield at 5% and weighed on the US dollar. And that helped AUD/USD rise for a second day ahead of a key AU CPI report.
EUR/USD analysis: Technical Tuesday - April 23, 2024
It has been a risk-on session so far, with equity indices rising sharply for the second consecutive day ahead of Tesla’s earnings tonight and other big tech companies reporting this week. Also on the rise today have been markets such as crude oil, the EUR/USD and even the GBP/USD. Sentiment was lifted by stronger PMI data from the services sector in Europe and UK, alleviating growth concerns even if the manufacturing sector PMI continued to remain depressed.
GBP/USD, EUR/USD forecast: Here’s why the US dollar rally has stalled
The US dollar rally has stalled, and the longer is fails to extends its gains the greater the odds of a pullback. For today, flash PMIs have placed GBP/USD and EUR/USD into focus.
British Pound Forecast: GBP/USD Hits 2024 Lows, Traders Continue to Sell Rallies
GBP/USD remains in “sell rallies” mode, so bullish readers will want to be nimble against a broader backdrop that favors more downside from here.
USD/JPY analysis: Currency Pair of the Week - April 22, 2024
US GDP, Core PCE and BoJ policy are among the risk events this week for the USD/JPY currency pair, as the focus turns to sticky inflation and elevated interest rates narrative from Middle East concerns for now. USD/JPY technical analysis point to a potential rally above 155.00.
EUR/USD, Gold, Crude Oil, 2-year note analysis: COT report
EUR/USD futures traders are on the cusp of flipping to net-short exposure, and managed funds are increasing their short exposure to gold and crude oil.
US dollar analysis: EUR/USD and USD/JPY remain in sharp focus - Forex Friday
US dollar analysis: Focus turns to sticky inflation and elevated interest rates narrative as markets regain their poise – for now – as Iran downplays the impact of Israel's strikes. The EUR/USD and USD/JPY will be in sharp focus with global PMIs and BoJ policy among other risk events coming up next week.
USD/JPY 155 in focus around US inflation, BOJ meeting: The Week Ahead
155 has become the latest 'glass ceiling' for the rapid rise of USD/JPY. And with a key US inflation report, BOJ meeting and potential for risk-off sentiment next week, this key level could be tested and prompt a response from Japan's central authorities.
Japanese Yen Forecast: USD/JPY Rally Nears 155 – Is the BOJ “The Boy Who Cried Wolf?”
For USD/JPY, the next test to watch will be at 155.00, and if the MOF/BOJ fail to act if USD/JPY breaches that level, traders may start to turn their eyes up to 160.00 next
EUR/USD, DAX may be down – but they’re not fully out
The US dollar has dominated sentiment for markets this past week, but with signs of momentum waning there may be hope for a rebound on EUR/USD and DAX - even if only minor.
EUR/USD analysis: Focus turns to Powell as geopolitical uncertainty lingers
German ZEW survey improves for 9th consecutive month to provide the euro some much-needed support. But the US dollar is likely to remain supported on dips and this should prevent rates from rising significantly. EUR/USD technical analysis point to an oversold bounce, but the trend remains bearish
USD/CAD analysis: Canadian CPI in focus for BOC clues
With the odds of a Fed cut arriving this year now in jeopardy, it is now over to the BOE, ECB or BOC to take the title as ‘first to begin easing’. And that brings Canadian CPI data into focus today for CAD traders.
USD/JPY eyes 155, WTI crude oil looks set to bounce: Asian Open
USD/JPY is less than a day's trade from 155, a level an ex-FX diplomat warned could trigger an intervention if breached. WTI crude oil seems to have solid support above $84, to hint at a swing low.
GBP/USD outlook: Currency Pair of the Week – April 15, 2024
The GBP/USD could be impacted significantly by UK CPI data this week. For now, markets are calm as Iran tensions have eased, but the situation remains volatile, likely to keep risk appetite low. The GBP/USD outlook is bearish as US dollar is likely to remain supported on any short-term dips.
US dollar, yen, VIX, gold, crude oil analysis: COT report – April 15, 2024
Net-short exposure to yen futures rose to a 16-year high last week, and now within reach of its record. Asset managers appear to be on the right side of the US dollar trade, with large speculators remaining net-short despite the dollar's rally. Net-long exposure for oil and gold futures continued to trend higher, but neither are at levels which screams sentiment extreme. And asset managers are on the cusp of flipping to net-long exposure to the VIX.
GBP/USD analysis: US dollar rallies on inflation and Middle East jitters
Risk assets tumbled on Middle East tensions, adding additional pressure on the cable on Friday with US dollar already on the rise. Key UK inflation data is coming up in the week ahead, as GBP/USD technical analysis point lower after breaking 1.25 key support.
DJIA analysis: Risk off as stocks plunges and even gold reverses
DJIA analysis: Stocks tumble on Middle East jitters, as VIX spikes. US dollar has also extended its rally on reduced rate cut expectations and risk off sentiment. Meanwhile, gold looks like it may have topped out.
EUR/USD analysis: Forex Friday, April 12, 2024
The ECB is moving closer to cutting rates while the Fed’s timeline lengthens. This is bearish for the EUR/USD forecast. Today, the UoM surveys will come out and we have a few Fed speakers too.
USD/JPY closes above 153 for the first time since 1990: Asian Open
Another day, another milestone for USD/JPY which closed above 152 for the first time in nearly 34 years on Thursday.
EUR/USD, DAX forecast: ECB, US PPI and Fed speakers on tap
All eyes are on today's ECB meeting, Fed speakers and US PPI figures to see if it can drive ERUR/USD lower or spark a rebound, after it suffered its worst day in 13 months on Wednesday.