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FOMC hikes 25bps, as expected. More rate hikes to come?
Today’s FOMC meeting was uneventful. However, Powell’s press conference which followed provided less hawkish comments for the markets to feast on
Big miss for ADP Employment Change; weather cited
Will the weather effect from today’s ADP Employment Change have the same effect on January’s NFP report?
BoE Preview: MPC might be split but 50 bp hike likely
The GBP/USD could be heading to 1.25 if the BoE does not deliver a dovish surprise.
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ECB Preview: All about forward guidance
While a 50 basis point hike is fully priced in, there’s still a lot of uncertainty in terms of forward guidance...
How much higher can gold move?
By the reaction after today’s ECI, it looks like gold bugs still mean business.
US Q4 Employment Cost Index helps the Fed’s soft landing scenario
Will there be signs that the Fed intends to hike by an additional 25bps at it March meeting?
European Open: China’s PMI squeeze in a surprise expansion, GBP/AUD turns higher
China’s PMI beat expectations and expanded, which could give global growth prospects a boost as China continues to reopen
Australia’s retail snails weigh on December's trade figures (again)
Australia’s retail sales were down a lot more than expected in December, suggesting much of the hype had died over the Black Friday Sales and Cyber Sales Monday in November.
Looking to stay away from FED, BOE, and ECB this week? How about AUD/CAD?
Since October 2022 the pair has been moving higher and has recently hit the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level
Currency Pair of the Week: EUR/USD
With the FOMC and the ECB meetings, along with a treasure trove of important economic data from the US and Europe, EUR/USD should be volatile this week.
The top 10 most traded currencies
Learn about the 10 most traded currencies like the dollar, euro and yen and learn why forex traders prefer trading these major currencies
Commitment of traders report (COT):
The commitment of traders (COT) report shows how large speculators are positioned across futures markets on the CME exchange.
Core PCE unlikely to sway Fed next week
The December Core PCE print was in-line with expectations. Therefore, markets remain comfortable with pricing in the 98% chance of a 25bps rate hike on Wednesday.
Forex Friday: USD/JPY, EUR/USD and GBP/USD
In this week’s edition, we discuss the dollar, pound and euro, and look forward to the big central bank meetings in the week ahead.
Is the USD/JPY bearish move becoming ‘long’ in the tooth?
Shorting USD/JPY is not a new idea, and as the pair has erased around half of its 21-month rally, we see the potential for a bounce over the coming weeks.
SARB hikes rates by 25bps; 50bps expected
It appears SARB could have gone with 50bps, but held back due to ongoing load shedding and the hit it may take on the economy.
US data dump provides little new info for the Fed
Although Durable Goods was stronger than expected, there is little to take from the other data points, as it was from so long ago.
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Markets steady ahead of GDP, earnings and CB meetings
There are still a few important macro pointers that investors will be watching this week ahead of a very busy next week
What does it mean for the Fed if Core PCE comes out weaker than expected?
If the print is “as expected”, will this be enough of a drop for the Fed to leave rates unchanged at its February meeting?
Bank of Canada hikes rates by 25bps, but signals a pause ahead
Will USD/CAD continue its recent trend lower despite a dovish BoC?
Is the move higher in AUD/USD set to continue?
Will AUD/USD be able to break above resistance and continue higher? It may depend on the Q4 inflation data.
Mexico’s mid-month CPI rises for the first time since September 2022
Mid-month inflation data for January showed that CPI has increased in Mexico. Will Banxico continue to match the Fed’s rate hikes?