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EUR/USD outlook remains bearish amid oil rally, risk-off tone

Bond yields in Germany, UK and US continued to ascend in the first half of Thursday’s session, thus keeping US index futures under pressure. But the US dollar fell for a change, as major currency pairs staged an oversold bounce from key technical levels; the EUR/USD, for example, found support from around the 1.05 psychologically important level, which it had breached momentarily on Wednesday

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September 28, 2023 01:35 PM
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EUR/USD nears YTD low, S&P 500 tags key trendline: European open – 28/09/2023

Index futures are higher ahead of the open, whilst a bounce on AUD/USD during Asian trade teases with the prospects of a potential short squeeze. And with EUR/USD holding above its YTD low whilst the S&P 500 held above a key trendline and 200-day EMA on Wednesday, perhaps a small short squeeze is not such a crazy prospect after all.

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September 28, 2023 07:08 AM
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AUD/USD support caves as USD continues melt up continues: Asian Open 28/09/23

AUD/USD fell to its lowest level since November on Wednesday as it buckled under the strain of a stronger US dollar and yields. With key support levels showing the potential to act as resistance, a move down to 63c could now be on the cards.

September 28, 2023 12:16 AM

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USD/CHF aims for 12th bullish day, DAX on the ropes: European open

The DAX finds itself at a 6-month low with Wall Street indices, with DAX futures also pointing to a weak open. Yields need to pull back for it to stand any chance of recovering, and if they do it may even take some steam out of the USD/CHF rally which is trying to tally up its 12th consecutive bullish day.

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September 27, 2023 06:36 AM

Gold remains at the mercy of USD and bond yields: Asian Open – 27/09/2023

Gold prices suffered their worst day in 8 weeks on Tuesday with spot prices falling below the 200-day EMA and closing on the key $1900 level. But with gold lower against a basket of currencies, it shows gold is weaker and it's not just a case of a stronger USD or yields.

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September 26, 2023 11:48 PM
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EUR/USD Outlook Darkens as Dollar goes from Strength to Strength - Currency Pair of the Week

The EUR/USD has been among a growing number of major FX pairs breaking to fresh multi-month lows. The euro’s latest losses come after the Dollar Index ended higher for the tenth consecutive week and as risk appetite remained low across financial markets, with major indices breaking further lower this morning. The EUR/USD will be among the key FX pairs to watch this week.


AUD/USD, S&P 500, VIX analysis: Commitment of traders report (COT)

The commitment of traders (COT) report shows how large speculators are positioned across futures markets on the CME exchange.


S&P 500 suffered its worst week in six months: Asian Open – 25/09/2023

Weak PMIs on Friday were the latest economic data sets to warn of a slowdown and weighed on global indices accordingly. The S&P 500 suffered its worst week in six months and shows the potential to fall further. Although support levels nearby suggest it may try to bounce head of its next leg lower.

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September 24, 2023 11:39 PM
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Dollar analysis: EUR/USD, GBP/USD and Yields in focus – Forex Friday

Welcome to another edition of Forex Friday, a weekly report in which we highlight selected currency themes. In this week’s report, we will focus the US dollar, EUR/USD and GBP/USD. The dollar index eyes March high and set to close higher for 10th consecutive week, with BoJ inaction and rising crude oil prices providing additional boost for greenback.

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How to trade low volatility: strategies for quiet markets

We talk a lot about how volatility creates opportunities for traders. But what happens when there’s only a little market movement to take advantage of? Find out what to trade when there’s low volatility and what the best low volatility trading strategies are.

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September 22, 2023 10:23 AM

USD/JPY falters around 148 ahead of CPI and BOJ: Asian Open 22/09/2023

The US dollar handed back its post-FOMC gains despite surging bond yields, which saw USD/JPY form a 2-bar reversal day after a false break of 148. And this leaves the potential for a deeper pullback towards its 20-day EMA before its trend resumes (keep in mind Japan's CPI report and BOJ interest rate decision is in focus today).

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September 22, 2023 12:07 AM
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Volatility trading guide: its causes and the most volatile markets

Markets are always on the move, but the speed and size of price changes is what creates excitement (and risk) for traders. So, let’s take a look at how to trade volatility, and which markets experience the highest levels of volatility.

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September 21, 2023 04:21 PM
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Euro analysis: EUR/USD Bulls Defend Support in the Mid-1.06s

If we see a daily close below 1.0635 support, it would open the door for another leg lower in EUR/USD...


GBP/USD analysis: BoE decides against another interest rate hike

Earlier, the Bank of England announced interest rates would be kept unchanged in a surprise move (not to us) and the pound took another plunge, dropping below 1.2250 in initial reaction. The BoE’s policy statement was somewhat hawkish and the MPC split. This means that the next few policy decisions could be close calls, especially if inflation doesn’t come down fast enough.

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September 21, 2023 01:00 PM
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AUD/USD, ASX 200 headwinds to persist with ‘higher for longer’ Fed rates: Asian Open

At the most basic level the Fed delivered what was expected; another policy pause with the potential for further hikes. The opening paragraph tipped noted an economy which is “expanding at a solid pace” with a slower but “strong” job growth and elevated inflation. There’s nothing remotely dovish there. And then we look at the numbers…

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September 20, 2023 10:42 PM
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Euro to dollar analysis: EUR/USD short term levels to watch for FOMC

The EUR/USD and other dollar pairs will be in sharp focus for FX traders as the attention turns to the upcoming Fed decision in a few hours’ time. No rate hike is expected, but the market is pricing in about even odds of another rate increase before the year is out.

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September 20, 2023 04:23 PM

GBP/USD outlook: Inflation and central bank meetings take center stage – BoE Preview

The GBP/USD will come into sharp focus over the next couple days, with two pivotal events on the horizon: the FOMC and BoE rate decisions. Additionally, traders are anticipating the release of UK CPI and retail sales data, as well as global PMI figures this week. These developments collectively have the potential to shape the near-term GBP/USD outlook. UK CPI could sway BoE decision, with the UK central bank likely to mimic ECB's dovish hike. Meanwhile, the FOMC is likely to go for a hawkish hold.

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September 19, 2023 02:00 PM

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Dollar analysis: EUR/USD, DXY and Gold in focus - Technical Tuesday

Welcome to Technical Tuesday, a weekly report where we highlight some of the most interesting markets that will hopefully appease technical analysts and traders alike. In this edition of Technical Tuesday, we will analyse the EUR/USD, Gold and the Dollar Index.


USD/CAD in the crossfire of CA CPI and FOMC: European open – 19/09/2023

The Canadian dollar has continued to strengthen alongside oil prices in recent days, sending USD/CAD to a near 5-week low, GBP/CAD beneath its 200-day EMA and CAD/JPY to within striking distance of its 2022 high. Today’s Canadian inflation data could prove volatile for USD/CAD ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC meeting.

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September 19, 2023 05:41 AM

EUR/USD suffers its worst weekly run in 26 years ahead of FOMC

EUR/USD fell for 9th week by Friday's close, its worst weekly run since 1997. Yet whilst that could mean it is 'owed' a bounce, history suggests such bearish runs are later accompanied by further losses, as macro themes can trump technicals during such times. And that places this week's FOMC meeting into focus, where we discuss the likelihood that it might be more dovish than markets currently are pricing in.

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September 19, 2023 03:20 AM

Oil, Canadian Dollar Analysis: USD/CAD Hits 1-Month Lows as Oil Rally Extends

Technical analysis shows WTI may be getting stretched while USD/CAD could have further to fall...

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September 18, 2023 05:45 PM
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GBP/USD Outlook: BoE and FOMC meetings make Cable Currency Pair of the Week

The GBP/USD is in focus ahead of this week’s key events: FOMC and BoE rate decisions. We also have UK CPI and retail sales, as well as global PMI figures to look forward to this week. The BoE is likely to deliver a final 25 bps hike, while FOMC is seen holding policy unchanged. The GBP/USD could be heading to low 1.20s in this busy week.

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September 18, 2023 01:00 PM

US dollar, USD/CAD, WTI crude oil analysis: Commitment of traders report (COT)

The USD is on the cusp of flipping to net-long exposure among G10 currencies according to data compiled by IMM (International Monetary Market). And despite the resurgence of US dollar strength, oil continues to perform well and market positioning is looking increasingly bullish for the weeks or even months ahead.

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September 18, 2023 03:23 AM