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EUR/USD forecast in sharp focus as French election nears

One big risk event is taking place next Sunday, on June 30. This will mark the first round of the French parliamentary election. But it is likely that the extent of Marine Le Pen party's progress will only be known after the run-offs on July 7.

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Today 01:29 PM
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EUR/USD, NZD/USD: Abundant fuel to spark a squeeze

EUR/USD and NZD/USD have returned to territory where they’ve attracted buying in the past. Given this week is likely to confirm ebbing inflationary pressures in the United States, adding to the case for Fed rate cuts, and with French election uncertainty now arguably priced in, there’s fuel around to spark some form of squeeze in the days ahead.

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GBP/USD: Cable dangles above support as bears seek downside break

This week comes across as a pivotal one for GBP/USD, teetering above technical support ahead of arguably the most important data release worldwide when it comes to the global interest rate outlook, the US core PCE deflator. If the recent price action is any indication, risks look to be building to the downside.

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Today 03:24 AM

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US dollar index breaks higher, triggering reversal warnings for gold and copper

Gold and copper were looking good until late Friday, bouncing strongly on Thursday following recent weakness, the former talking out key levels in the process. Then along came the latest US Composite PMI report from S&P Global.

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Today 01:08 AM
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EUR/USD, GBP/USD outlook undermined as US dollar extends rise – Forex Friday

The dollar has strengthened thanks to weakness in European PMI data released earlier today and ongoing concerns about the upcoming elections in France and the UK, both holding back the euro and pound. Meanwhile a surprise rate cut by the SNB hurt the franc on Thursday, which was followed by a marginally more dovish Bank of England rate decision than expected.

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EUR/USD in the crossfire of election polls, US inflation: The Week Ahead

Inflation reports are the main theme for next week, with figures set to be released from the US, Canada, Australia and Japan. EUR/USD traders might want to be on guard for headline risk surrounding French elections, as it is the last full week before votes are cast and that means polls could easily sway sentient for European markets.

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June 21, 2024 06:42 AM
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USD/JPY, USD/CNH: BOJ, PBOC inaction fuelling US dollar strength

Only intervention from the Bank of Japan (BOJ) or a dramatic increase in Fed rate cut bets look to be standing between USD/JPY and a test of the multi-decade highs struck in late April, unless the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) moves aggressively to curb weakness.

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June 21, 2024 04:13 AM
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S&P500 Forecast: SPX rises lifted by Nvidia & weaker jobless claims

U.S. stocks are set for a stronger open as traders return from the Juneteenth public holiday, digest softer-than-expected US jobless claims, and Nvidia extends its impressive rally. Jobless claims were virtually unchanged from last week's 9-month high, which combined with weaker retail sales earlier in the week, point to a softening in the economy, which could see the Fed cut rates sooner.

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June 20, 2024 02:22 PM
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GBP/USD forecast: Pound drops as BoE hints at rate cuts

The MPC voted 7-2 to hold rates, with Dhingra and Ramadan again voting to cut rates. But the fact that this decision was "finely" balanced means the balance could shift towards a cut should economic conditions deteriorate, or inflation does not accelerate again.

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June 20, 2024 02:07 PM
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USD/CNH hits 2024 highs as PBOC loosens grip on yuan

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) continues to loosen its grip on the Chinese yuan, sending USD/CNH highs not seen since late 2023 on Thursday. Given the influence the yuan has on emerging market and other Asian currencies, the technical break may have global ramifications if it sticks.

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June 20, 2024 06:17 AM

NZD/USD: New Zealand exits recession as the Kiwi contemplates upside

New Zealand is no longer in recession with economic activity expanding 0.2% in the first quarter, leaving it 0.3% higher than a year earlier. Markets has been looking for slightly softer numbers at 0.1% and 0.2% respectively. NZD/USD is pushing higher.

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June 20, 2024 12:17 AM
Forex trading

EUR/USD outlook remains as clear as mud

FX investors will look ahead to two major central bank decisions on Thursday and US weekly jobless claims figures, building permits and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, which could impact the short-term EUR/USD outlook. But the main focus will be on France’s snap election taking place on June 30.

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June 19, 2024 05:31 PM
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AUD/JPY nears 2013 high, focus shifts to Australian inflation report

A relatively hawkish meeting from the RBA has supported AUD over the past 24 hours, sent AUD/JPY to an 11-year high and made next week's inflation report the more important.

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June 19, 2024 04:38 AM
Forex trading

158 continues to defy USD/JPY bulls, AUD/USD rebounds in style

Weak US retail sales alongside a relatively hawkish RBA statement gave AUD/USD a decent lift from range lows and further strengthened a case for a top to form on USD/JPY.

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June 19, 2024 12:35 AM
Forex trading

EUR/USD outlook hinges on French election

The US dollar has been little-changed so far this week, after starting the week moderately lower on Monday following a two-week rally and turning slightly higher today against a basket of foreign currency. The highlight of the day is the May US retail sales data.

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June 18, 2024 12:30 PM
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AUD/USD squeezing higher as RBA tone shifts more hawkish

The RBA has evidence to justify continued vigilance towards continued upside inflation surprises, vowing it will do what it is necessary to bring it back to the 2.5% midpoint of its inflation target. But it’s not yet compelling enough to warrant hiking rates, choosing to retain a neutral bias in June.

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June 18, 2024 07:33 AM
japan_09

USD/JPY hints at another false break, AUD/USD looks set to bounce

The US dollar index formed a small bearish inside day after once again failing to hold onto gains above 105.20 for the second day in a row. This could allow for some mean reversion for soe of its FX peers, and for today we have a potential AUD/USD long and USD/JPY short in focus.

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GBP/USD forecast: Currency Pair of the Week – June 17, 2024

The GBP/USD forecast is in focus, with the upcoming Bank of England rate decision, UK CPI, retail sales from both sides of the pond and global PMI data all on tap this week. Plus, there is the added uncertainty from the upcoming UK general election.

USD, EUR/USD, USD/CAD, Crude Oil, Dow Jones Analysis: COT report

Bears were busy last week as they piled into shorts against EUR/USD and the Dow Jones, and also reached a record level of net-short exposure to the Canadian dollar. And this was beneficial for USD bulls.

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Potential RBNZ dovish pivot no guarantee to deliver NZD/USD weakness

Markets are alert to the risk of the RBNZ switching focus, dragging NZD/USD lower. But when it comes to directional risks for the New Zealand dollar beyond the short-term, it really comes back to the US interest rate outlook and health of the global economy.

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June 17, 2024 03:33 AM
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AUD/USD weekly outlook: June 17th 2024

Price action remains choppy and challenging for AUD/USD traders on the daily timeframe or higher. This makes it better suited for intraday traders, or those seeking to trade the range by entering around the lows, exiting near highs or potentially fade into the for a move lower. It is not a glamorous way of trading, but for now we have clear levels AUD/USD is holding around.

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USD/JPY reverses hard after BOJ disappointment, warning of potential top

The sizeable reversal in USD/JPY following the BOJ interest rate decision may be the start of a far larger move, unless you think the Federal Reserve may be forced to abandon the prospect of rate cuts this year. Given asymmetrical risks for the US rate outlook and increasingly tepid US economic data, selling USD/JPY rallies is preferred.

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June 17, 2024 12:58 AM
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USD/JPY spikes higher post BOJ, but be wary of false moves above 158

Traders are clearly keeping a close eye on the 158 handle after USD/JPY spiked up to it. Note that we're yet to see a daily close above 158 since late April, which landed one day before the MOF first intervened this year.

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June 14, 2024 05:42 AM