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GBP/USD Forecast: Cable at Key 1.2525 Support after Cool UK CPI

GBP/USD is the weakest US dollar cross after this morning’s cooler-than-expected UK CPI report - see what it means (and doesn't mean) for the BOE!

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February 14, 2024 04:03 PM
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GBP/JPY: Eying bullish break to multi-year highs ahead of key economic reports

GBP/JPY is on the cusp of breaking to fresh multi-year highs ahead of key inflation and employment data from the United Kingdom and Japan, making this a pair to keep on the radar over the next 48 hours.

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February 12, 2024 11:31 PM
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EUR/USD holds key support ahead of NFP, US dollar on the ropes

The US dollar was lower across the board after traders digested the latest Fed meeting and are now focusing on four cuts this year, beginning in May. EUR/USD is just one of several pairs to form engulfing days against the US dollar.

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February 1, 2024 10:27 PM

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GBP/USD 2024 Fundamental Outlook Preview

So will GBP/USD outperform again, or is the outlook for 2024 more downbeat?

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December 28, 2023 11:05 AM
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FTSE and Pound analysis: BoE not so dovish after Fed pivot

The FTSE eased off from earlier highs on not-so-dovish BoE hold. The key takeaway point is that there was no pivot, with the BoE warning that there's still some way to go on inflation front. This implies tight policy for longer. GBP/USD extends post FOMC rally as BoE's "finely balanced" decision saw three dissenters voted for 25bps hike.

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December 14, 2023 12:30 PM

EUR/USD, EUR/GBP in focus for BOE and ECB meetings: European open

We have arguably seen the biggest central bank surprise of the week, with the Fed’s dovish pivot. But that may also influence the tone of the SNB, BOE and ECB at their meetings today – even if only to a degree.

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December 14, 2023 04:47 AM

US CPI, FOMC, BOE, ECB and SNB on tap: The Week Ahead

Four major central banks meeting next week including the FOMC, ECB, BOE and SNB. While no changes are expected, traders want to know who may be the first to cut rates.

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December 7, 2023 02:56 AM
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GBP/USD outlook: BoE’s hawkish pause not a game changer

Ahead of the Bank of England’s rate decision, the GBP/USD was holding steady near 1.22 handle, benefitting slightly from the dollar’s weaker response to what was a hawkish hold from the Federal Reserve rate decision. Not many people were expecting a rate hike from the BoE either, with the market attaching a 93% probability of a second consecutive hold after 15 back-to-back interest rate hikes.

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November 2, 2023 01:05 PM
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British Pound Analysis: GBP/USD Coils Ahead of BOE “Super Thursday”

With no change to BOE interest rates expected, GBP/USD traders will key in on the BOE’s vote split and economic forecasts.

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October 31, 2023 06:55 PM
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FOMC, BOJ and BOE on tap: The Week Ahead – 27/10/2023

We have a busy calendar with what would usually be ‘red flag’ days, including central bank meetings with the FOMC, BOJ and BOE. There’s a reasonable chance we’ll see no action across all three, but the bigger response for global markets could be if the BOJ widen or abandon their yield curve control (YCC).

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October 27, 2023 01:20 AM
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GBP/USD: Looming US data creates squeeze risk for unloved and oversold pound

With GBP/USD sentiment so poor, and major US economic data arriving later this week, conditions look ideal for a countertrend squeeze over the coming days.

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September 27, 2023 05:26 AM
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GBP/USD analysis: BoE decides against another interest rate hike

Earlier, the Bank of England announced interest rates would be kept unchanged in a surprise move (not to us) and the pound took another plunge, dropping below 1.2250 in initial reaction. The BoE’s policy statement was somewhat hawkish and the MPC split. This means that the next few policy decisions could be close calls, especially if inflation doesn’t come down fast enough.

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September 21, 2023 01:00 PM
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GBP/USD: BoE ‘hawkish hike’ likely required to prevent further downside

Only a ‘hawkish hike’ from the Bank of England (BoE) is likely to be enough to turn around the fortunes of GBP/USD given rapidly weakening fundamentals.

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September 21, 2023 01:43 AM
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GBP/USD outlook: Inflation and central bank meetings take center stage – BoE Preview

The GBP/USD will come into sharp focus over the next couple days, with two pivotal events on the horizon: the FOMC and BoE rate decisions. Additionally, traders are anticipating the release of UK CPI and retail sales data, as well as global PMI figures this week. These developments collectively have the potential to shape the near-term GBP/USD outlook. UK CPI could sway BoE decision, with the UK central bank likely to mimic ECB's dovish hike. Meanwhile, the FOMC is likely to go for a hawkish hold.

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September 19, 2023 02:00 PM
Multiple pound notes £5, £20 and £50 Pound Sterling

GBP/USD Outlook: BoE and FOMC meetings make Cable Currency Pair of the Week

The GBP/USD is in focus ahead of this week’s key events: FOMC and BoE rate decisions. We also have UK CPI and retail sales, as well as global PMI figures to look forward to this week. The BoE is likely to deliver a final 25 bps hike, while FOMC is seen holding policy unchanged. The GBP/USD could be heading to low 1.20s in this busy week.

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September 18, 2023 01:00 PM
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FOMC, BOE, BOJ meetings, CPIs and flash PMIs: The Week Ahead – 15/09/2023

Whilst the Fed are expected to hold rates steady in September, next week’s FOMC meeting also includes the quarterly staff projections. And changes to dot plot or CPI estimates can be as good as a hike where market reactions are concerned. The odds of another BOE are next week are not as high as they were, which makes the preceding inflation report paramount to expectations for their next decision. And whilst the BOJ are unlikely to act, that is no reason to drop your guard given their tendency to surprise once in a while. We also have flash PMIs for major regions and inflation data to mull over.

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September 17, 2023 05:54 AM
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GBP/USD: sticky situation for longs should UK wages growth undershoot

Sticky wages growth is one of the few positives for GBP/USD right now, keeping the prospect for rate hikes from the BOE in play.

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September 12, 2023 01:25 AM

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British Pound Analysis: GBP/USD Bulls Boosted by Bets on BOE Bazooka

GBP/USD is approaching near-term resistance around 1.2800 ahead of tomorrow’s retail sales report...

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Pound analysis: GBP/USD outlook unmoved as BoE hikes rates by 25 bps

Governor Bailey gave very little away in his initial comments, although he didn’t push back against market pricing of another rate increase in September. Traders’ focus will now turn to the US again, where long-dated bonds have been selling off since that Fitch downgrade.

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August 3, 2023 01:00 PM
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British Pound Analysis: GBP/USD Breaks Down Ahead of BOE, NFP

Traders are pricing in about a 40% chance of a 50bps rate hike from Andrew Bailey and Company, so regardless of what the BOE decides, a significant portion of traders will be caught offsides, presenting a recipe for volatility in UK assets.

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GBP/USD forecast: Cable faces key test from both sides of the pond – BoE Preview

Key events from US and UK taking place this week means the GBP/USD is facing a key test . As well some more top-tier US data in the next few days, we also have the Bank of England’s rate decision to look forward to. Our GBP/USD forecast could change materially by Friday. But for now, we are expecting moderate further downside, owing to the dollar’s overall positive trend.

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August 1, 2023 01:00 PM

British Pound Analysis: All Eyes on 1.2850 Support for GBP/USD

If the global economy is showing signs of downshifting, GBP/USD may be particularly vulnerable...

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British Pound Analysis: GBP/USD Under Pressure Ahead of Quarter-End, 1.25 in Focus

Many analysts are attributing this week’s downdraft in GBP/USD to month- and quarter-end rebalancing ahead of the weekend, so there’s certainly potential for a bounce as we head into next week.