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USD/JPY hints at another false break, AUD/USD looks set to bounce

The US dollar index formed a small bearish inside day after once again failing to hold onto gains above 105.20 for the second day in a row. This could allow for some mean reversion for soe of its FX peers, and for today we have a potential AUD/USD long and USD/JPY short in focus.

EURUSD Forecast: Retesting Key levels below 1.07

EURUSD Forecast: the hawkish dollar and French political tensions sent the EURUSD down to retest key levels below 1.07


USD, GBP/USD, Gold, Crude Oil Analysis: COT report

Traders may have reduced net-long exposure to USD futures in aggregate, but they remain net-long and a bullish reversal week formed on the USD index. We also take a look at GBP/USD, gold, WTI crude oil and US indices positioning (S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100).

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Gold stabilises above 2300, open interest plunged last week: COT report

A false break of Friday's low appears favourable for gold bulls over the near-term whilst the US dollar remains under pressure. Although looking at the weekly COT report shows that open interest to gold futures plunged at its fastest weekly pace in 18 months last week.

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June 4, 2024 05:52 AM

AUD/USD rises despite risk-off tone, USD, yields slammed post ISM

The USD and yields were knocked swiftly lower on Monday as evidence of an economic slowdown in the US continued to build, helping AUD/USD to head for 76c despite the risk-off tone to the session.

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June 3, 2024 10:51 PM
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USD, Wall Street, gold: Risk seems to be falling apart at the seams

I suspect we're seeing the early moves of a pullback of appetite for risk in general, which saw traders push Wall Street indices and gold lower on Wednesday thanks to weak treasury demand. And it seems to be paving the way for the next leg higher for the USD.

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USD on track to snap 4-month winning streak, EUR/USD bulls eye 1.09

Barring a miraculous rebound before the end of month, the USD index is on track to snap its first 4-month winning streak since the December 2022 high.

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May 28, 2024 07:01 AM

AUD/USD breaks out, USD/JPY rolls over amidst worst day of 2024 for USD

The US dollar suffered its worst day of the year and Fed fund futures now imply with near certainty that the Fed will cut by September. And that saw AUD/USD breakout in style and USD/JPY roll over, breaking below two handles on Wednesday.

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It’s time to reassess the US dollar outlook

With US economic data delivering negative surprises at rates not seen over a year, with signs disinflationary forces are growing, it’s time for a rethink on the outlook for the US dollar. The era of selling rips rather than buying dips may be upon us.

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May 15, 2024 11:52 PM
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USD falters ahead of US CPI, ASX set to track Wall Street higher? Asian Open

The USD was weaker despite higher producer prices, as traders placed greater emphasis on last month's figures being revised lower. And that now sees a 51% chance of a September Fed cut, according to Fed Fund futures.

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May 15, 2024 12:11 AM

US dollar stabilises ahead of Powell, PPI, USD/JPY eyes 157: Asian Open

The US dollar has regained its footing heading into a Powell speech and US PPI report, whilst USD/JPY looks set to break resistance and head for 157.

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May 13, 2024 11:40 PM

Futures traders reduce yen speculation after BOJ intervention: COT report

With asset managers and large speculators trimming long and short exposure to yen futures, their appetite to speculate on the currency appears to be waning after BOJ interventions.


EUR/USD, AUD/USD, gold look set to take advantage of US dollar weakness

The US dollar snapped its 3-day winning streak and formed a bearish outside day, helping gold reach our upside target. EUR/USD and AUD/USD are now eyeing a move towards key resistance levels.


US dollar outlook Eliminate market noise using this indicator on DXY directional risks

As one of the most liquid futures contracts worldwide that combines fundamentals and technical views, it compresses huge amounts of information to provide an instant guide on where markets see directional risks for short-term US interest rates.

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May 8, 2024 04:04 AM
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Another BOJ intervention may have just stole the show from the Fed

It was the Japanese yen which stole the show after Jerome Powell’s press conference, with USD/JPY falling over 450 pips on another suspected BOJ intervention.


US dollar, yields look set to close the gap with commodities

Momentum turned higher for the US dollar on Friday and the US 2-year is reconsidering a break above 2%, which could see them close the gap with the CRM commodities index - which have led both markets higher this year.


US dollar stumble a tremor before the true FX earthquake hits

If you’re waiting for economic events outside the United States to spark the next wave of currency market volatility, you’re looking in the wrong place. Because in the absence of a black or grey-swan type event, it will almost certainly come from within the United States.

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April 24, 2024 12:01 AM

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GBP/USD, EUR/USD forecast: Here’s why the US dollar rally has stalled

The US dollar rally has stalled, and the longer is fails to extends its gains the greater the odds of a pullback. For today, flash PMIs have placed GBP/USD and EUR/USD into focus.

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US dollar, yields surge on hot US CPI, ASX set to gap lower: Asian Open

Bond yields and the US dollar surged after the latest US inflation report bought serious doubt over a June Fed cut, dragging global indices lower which sets the stage for the ASX 200 cash market to suffer today.

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April 11, 2024 12:24 AM

US dollar, EUR/USD, gold, crude oil analysis: COT report

The commitment of traders (COT) report shows how large speculators are positioned across futures markets on the CME exchange.

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April 8, 2024 04:35 AM
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US dollar hints at NFP rebound, ASX 200 to track Wall Street lower?

The US dollar retraced for a third day, but with NFP stats favouring a 'beat' then we're on guard for a dollar bounce.

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April 4, 2024 11:28 PM
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US dollar rally hits headwinds, silver squeeze sparks potential bullish break

After the rapid repricing of Fed rate cut expectations, US economic exceptionalism is now arguably already priced into the US dollar, leaving little room for downside disappointment in upcoming US economic data.

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April 3, 2024 03:35 AM

US dollar forecast: April tends to weigh on USD, GBP/USD outperforms

Looking at seasonality patterns shows that the US dollar tends to fall against most FX majors in April, and GBP/USD has been the outperformer.

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March 26, 2024 03:03 AM