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FOMC Minutes: “More restrictive stance” to come?

The FOMC Minutes from the June 14-15,2022 meeting told a story of a scared Fed that will do anything to stop inflation from increasing, even if it means slowing growth.

Core PCE not as bad as feared. But how much does it matter?

It probably won’t matter in isolation, as the Fed is now looking at a number of inflation data points to help determine the next direction for inflation in the US.

June 30, 2022 04:33 PM

Core PCE: Still the Fed’s favorite measure of inflation?

US Core PCE is due out this week and if it is similar to other recent inflation data, it may be stronger than expected.

June 28, 2022 04:09 PM

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Worse than expected US Manufacturing Production and Industrial Production top off a rough data week

Fed Chairman Powell said he does not see a spillover from the high inflation into the broader economy. Therefore, the Fed excepts to continue hiking rates.

Housing data and Philly Fed results don't inspire much hope for US economy

Jerome Powell said at yesterday’s FOMC press conference that he doesn’t see signs of a broader slowdown in the economy. Will his view change?

FOMC recap: Fed hikes rates 75 bps, dot plots show much more to come!

The Fed statement said that it is “strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2% objective” and that it ”expects the labor market to remain strong”.

June 15, 2022 09:05 PM

FOMC Preview: Could the Committee hike 75bps?

With inflation continuing to increase and the Unemployment Rate at its lowest since February 2020, is it time for the Fed to surprise the markets and hike rates by 75bps?

June 13, 2022 08:33 PM

CPI is highest since 1981; DXY, EUR/USD

The reaction in the markets is a stronger US Dollar and a lower EUR/USD, which insinuates a call for more aggressive tightening from the Fed.

June 10, 2022 03:40 PM

Non-Farm Payrolls beat; What will the Fed think?

Today’s headline NFP print and average hourly earnings data should make the Fed happy.

June 3, 2022 03:18 PM

US Dollar rips higher on economic data, Fed speakers

Today’s US ISM Manufacturing PMI and hawkish Fed speakers were bullish for the US Dollar. Will the DXY continue to move higher?

June 1, 2022 08:04 PM

Core PCE still strong, but weaker than March

Although one reading isn’t considered a trend,it may be suggesting that inflation has plateaued.

Is the manufacturing sector telling us something?

Are these large drops in the manufacturing data indicative of a slowdown ahead in the rest of the economy?

What is the US Dollar Index and how can you trade it?

The US Dollar Index is widely used as a measure of sentiment toward the US dollar. Discover what the Dollar Index is, which currencies are in the basket and how you can use it to inform your forex trades.

May 17, 2022 03:58 PM

US Consumer still spending despite high inflation; EUR/USD

Anyone who is worried about the effects that inflation will have on household spending can take a deep breath for another month as April’s Retail Sales data continued to be strong.

US PPI follows suit after CPI print

Although PPI was lower than March's reading, it did little to soothe investor fears of rising interest rates.

May 12, 2022 04:45 PM

Is it time for USD/CHF to pullback ahead of parity as DXY consolidates?

The US Dollar Index (DXY) and USD/CHF have a very strong positive correlation.

May 10, 2022 04:14 PM

NFP headline beats expectations; confirms Fed’s view that labor markets are tight

If the Fed continues to raise rates, will the jobs numbers begin to move lower?

May 6, 2022 03:57 PM

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Big miss as US Q1 GDP turns negative; EUR/USD

The headline print was -1.4% QoQ vs an expectation of +1.1% QoQ and a Q4 2021 reading of +6.9% QoQ!

April 28, 2022 04:13 PM

Eastern European EM pairs moving back towards all-time highs

Given the strong correlations, if the DXY pulls back, watch for USD/PLN and USD/HUF to pull back with it!

April 27, 2022 03:44 PM

DXY continues to surge; EUR/USD lower

The US Dollar Index has broken above the top trendline of the upward sloping channel and is gunning for the March 2020 highs

April 26, 2022 03:37 PM

Asian Open: Dollar index hits 25-month high, gold below 1900

It was another rough day for commodities and commodity currencies which buckled under the pressure of a strong dollar, due to global growth concerns and a hawkish Fed.

Yields and US Dollar pull back at resistance; EUR/USD, GBP/USD

Yields began moving lower yesterday. Today, the US Dollar took its turn to move lower.

April 13, 2022 07:28 PM

US March CPI highest since December 1981

The large increase over last month’s reading was primarily due to an increase in food and energy prices.

April 12, 2022 03:25 PM