News and analysis

Whilst the RBNZ were expected to hold, their statement struck a hawkish tone by stating that “inflation remains too high”. And with traders front-loading a weak CPI print for the US later this week it has catapulted the New Zealand dollar higher.

With USD/CNH and USD/JPY probing key support levels, we may require a break of them for AUD/USD to stand a chance of continuing its strong rally (which met strong resistance on Tuesday). Unless of course Australia is treated to an uncomfortably hot inflation report today, which could fan fears of another RBA hike.

The tail risks of a failure for OPEC+ to reach an agreement is on the rise, presenting an underappreciated potential for even more volatility in the crude oil market...

Gold continued to impress, up 1.4% to $2,040 (versus a one-year high of $2,085). Oil spiked 2.2% to $76.5 per barrel. Today’s consumer sentiment and holiday spending data were very strong. Two Fed governors indicated different opinions on official interest rates: Michelle Bowman thinks the Fed will have to raise rates further to bring inflation down, but Christopher Waller said he believes current rates are about right. Stocks again made little progress, with the economically sensitive Russell 2000 off 0.6%.

The two largest US oil and gas companies both announced major acquisitions that will increase production while lowering taxable revenue in the near future. Learn more in our rundown of Chevron and Exxon here.

Gold was up nearly 1.3% by late afternoon trading in London, near $2040 while silver was closing in on the $25.00 level. The precious metals have been supported by two factors: Bond yields and US dollar, both falling.

Stocks are pointing to a subdued start as investors look ahead cautiously to Thursday's inflation data. Today consumer confidence figures are expected to show a slight deterioration in morale, Several Fed officials will speak across the day and could provide clues about the Fed's future path for interest rates. Retailers are in focus after Americans spent around $12 billion online on Cyber Monday.

Welcome to another edition of Technical Tuesday, a weekly report where we highlight some of the most interesting markets that will hopefully appease technical analysts and traders alike. In this week’s report, we will analyse the EUR/USD pair.

Bullish factors November IPCA-15 may slightly accelerate versus October, bringing some points of concern regarding inflation dynamics for the upcoming months and potentially weakening the real. Bearish factors The possibility of advancing important economic agendas for the government in the National Congress could reduce the perception of fiscal risks for Brazilian assets and strengthen the real. Data for the American economy can reinforce the perception that the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates further and contribute to the global weakening of the USD.