News and analysis
EUR/USD, USD/JPY implied vols rise ahead CPI and GDP data: European Open
With a host of inflation data from Europe and GDP data for the US, implied volatility has picked up to wake markets up from their post-Thanksgiving lull. Today we take a look at USD/JPY and EUR/USD for a potential setup.
NZ dollar takes flight as RBNZ strike a hawkish tone (NZD/USD, AUD/NZD)
Whilst the RBNZ were expected to hold, their statement struck a hawkish tone by stating that “inflation remains too high”. And with traders front-loading a weak CPI print for the US later this week it has catapulted the New Zealand dollar higher.
AUD/USD hits resistance pre-CPI as USD/JPY, USD/CNH probe support: Asian Open
With USD/CNH and USD/JPY probing key support levels, we may require a break of them for AUD/USD to stand a chance of continuing its strong rally (which met strong resistance on Tuesday). Unless of course Australia is treated to an uncomfortably hot inflation report today, which could fan fears of another RBA hike.
Crude Oil Analysis: WTI, Brent Bounce, OPEC+ Uncertainty Remains
The tail risks of a failure for OPEC+ to reach an agreement is on the rise, presenting an underappreciated potential for even more volatility in the crude oil market...
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Oil and Gold rally, stocks largely unmoved
Gold continued to impress, up 1.4% to $2,040 (versus a one-year high of $2,085). Oil spiked 2.2% to $76.5 per barrel. Today’s consumer sentiment and holiday spending data were very strong. Two Fed governors indicated different opinions on official interest rates: Michelle Bowman thinks the Fed will have to raise rates further to bring inflation down, but Christopher Waller said he believes current rates are about right. Stocks again made little progress, with the economically sensitive Russell 2000 off 0.6%.
Everything you need to know about the Exxon and Chevron acquisitions
The two largest US oil and gas companies both announced major acquisitions that will increase production while lowering taxable revenue in the near future. Learn more in our rundown of Chevron and Exxon here.
Gold analysis: Precious metals, stocks climb as yields and dollar drop
Gold was up nearly 1.3% by late afternoon trading in London, near $2040 while silver was closing in on the $25.00 level. The precious metals have been supported by two factors: Bond yields and US dollar, both falling.
Dow Jones forecast: Stocks set for a muted start ahead of consumer confidence data
Stocks are pointing to a subdued start as investors look ahead cautiously to Thursday's inflation data. Today consumer confidence figures are expected to show a slight deterioration in morale, Several Fed officials will speak across the day and could provide clues about the Fed's future path for interest rates. Retailers are in focus after Americans spent around $12 billion online on Cyber Monday.
EUR/USD analysis: Technical Tuesday – Nov 28, 2023
Welcome to another edition of Technical Tuesday, a weekly report where we highlight some of the most interesting markets that will hopefully appease technical analysts and traders alike. In this week’s report, we will analyse the EUR/USD pair.
USDBRL should reflect US data, IPCA-15, and the economic agenda in Congress.
Bullish factors November IPCA-15 may slightly accelerate versus October, bringing some points of concern regarding inflation dynamics for the upcoming months and potentially weakening the real. Bearish factors The possibility of advancing important economic agendas for the government in the National Congress could reduce the perception of fiscal risks for Brazilian assets and strengthen the real. Data for the American economy can reinforce the perception that the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates further and contribute to the global weakening of the USD.
DAX, GBP/USD Forecast: Two trades to watch
DAX slips, German consumer confidence ticks higher. GBP/USD consolidates at a 3-month high ahead of US consumer confidence data.
Yen bulls return, EUR/USD benefits from soft dollar bets: COT report
When yen bulls increase their long exposure by 40% in a week, it is probably worth noting. Especially when large speculators had pushed net-short exposure to a 6-year high the week prior. Every turning point must start somewhere, and I continue to suspect this turning point already has.
AUD/USD, ASX 200 continue to go their separate ways: Asian Open
Two milestones were set on Monday for two key Australian markets, which saw AUD/USD close above its 200-day average for the first time in four months and the ASX 200 close below 7,000.
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