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Quarry and various stones

Crude oil, copper bounce as commodity rally resumes before US inflation report

The rout in commodity prices didn’t last long, as expected, with dip buyers emerging late last week to take advantage of better entry levels. Crude and copper look particularly constructive following the recent bounce.

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Today 12:38 AM
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AUD/USD, ASX 200 drift higher ahead of AU retail sales: Asian Open

Volatility levels were lower, as one would expect with the UK and US on a public holiday Monday. And that allowed AUD/USD to drift higher alongside the ASX 200 futures market, even if I do not fully trust the moves.

Significant trading volumes on the VIX hints at cycle low: COT report

When open interest on the VIX rises at its second largest weekly pace on record, it’s best to take notice. Especially when it reached a 5-year low before snapping a 4-week losing streak. We also take a look at positioning on the USD index, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, NZD/USD, gold and WTI crude oil.

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AUD/USD weekly outlook: May 26, 2024

A 2-week bearish reversal pattern below resistance suggests there could be some further downside potential for AUD/USD, although Friday's bullish engulfing day hints at a minor bounce first.

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May 26, 2024 09:00 PM

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    EUR/USD analysis: Key inflation data in focus

    Inflation is in focus in the week ahead. The German CPI report will come out on Wednesday, a couple of days ahead of the Eurozone numbers on Friday, when we will also have that Core PCE Price index from the US.

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    May 26, 2024 03:00 AM
    Multiple pound notes £5, £20 and £50 Pound Sterling

    British Pound Technical Forecast: GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, EUR/GBP

    It was another strong week for the British Pound as Core CPI came out well-above the expectation, leading to a 1.2750 test in GBP/USD and a 200.00 test in GBP/JPY.

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    Japanese Yen Forecast: Three Reasons the BOJ Won’t Intervene in USD/JPY Again

    USD/JPY remains in a bullish technical posture, with potential for a retest of 160.00 unless the BOJ changes course no interest rates.

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    May 25, 2024 03:00 PM
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    Gold weekly forecast: Hawkish Fed rates repricing generates asymmetric dovish risks

    The price action in gold last week warns of growing downside risks. But with markets significantly scaling back Fed rate cut bets, it's now up to incoming data to justify why rates should be left on hold. If it can't, it points to US dollar weakness and lower US bond yields, and likely tailwinds for commodity markets.

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    May 25, 2024 09:00 AM
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    Weekly equities forecast: Costco, Salesforce earnings & BP looks to OPEC+

    After a choppy trading week last week, attention this week will be firmly on inflation. Inflation data from the eurozone, Australia, and the US will be released, and the latter could drive worries over high rates for longer. Earnings season is coming to an end, but numbers from Costco and Salesforce will be in focus. OPEC+ is due to meet, which could impact oil prices after they dropped 3.5% last week. Oil majors such as BP track the commodity price.

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    May 25, 2024 03:00 AM
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    Dow Jones Forecast: 39000 Barrier on Hold, Rebound or Drop?

    Dow Jones Forecast: the Dow has fallen back to the lower end of the 39,000-price zone amid hawkish sentiment. What’s next?

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    NASDAQ 100 Forecast: QQQ rises but the recovery could be short -lived

    US stocks are opening higher after losses yesterday when fears over high interest rates for longer overshadowed Nvidia's impressive results. Fears that a strong US economy and sticky inflation could prevent the Fed from loosening monetary policy, combined with lower volumes ahead of the long weekend, could see gains limited.

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    May 24, 2024 02:54 PM
    Close-up of market chart showing downtrend

    S&P 500 outlook: Stocks could resume drop after Thursday’s reversal

    The short-term S&P 500 outlook could turn bearish if we see some downside follow-through below Thursday’s range when it formed a rather large outside candle after the fresh breakout to a new all-time high was met with strong selling, despite Nvidia’s strong showing.

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    USD, yields rise into next week’s PCE inflation: The Week Ahead

    It was a more eventful week than anticipated, thanks to hotter PMI data across Europe and the US, serving as a reminder that inflationary pressures persist. And puts traders on high alert for flash CPI and PCE inflation reports for Europe and the US.

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    May 24, 2024 04:46 AM
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