News and analysis

At the time of writing, the stock markets were starting to come off their best levels. With this being the month- and quarter-end, there will be lots of repositioning today, which may mean lower stock prices later, given that we have been in a risk off market environment for much of September. In any event, volatility is here to stay.

Wall Street is fearful that Tesla deliveries could fall short of expectations, Tesco keeps showing why it’s the leading UK grocer, and Boohoo needs to show it can still complete a major turnaround before the end of the year.

Bitcoin and Ethereum market internals show the market is poised for a new bullish cycle IF a catalyst emerges...

US stocks are heading higher after US core PCE, the Fed's preferred gauge for inflation cooled to 3.9% from 4.2%. Meanwhile headline PCE ticked higher showing that inflationary rises are rising modestly. US stocks have fallen across the month, booking the worst monthly performance so far this year and the first quarterly decline in 2023 amid concerns that the Fed will keep interest rates higher for longer.

What stocks are being discussed and traded today, and which ones are experiencing the sharpest moves before the bell?

Despite softer Eurozone inflation and German retail sales data, the EUR/USD climbed for the second day in the first half of Friday’s session. It was supported because of firmer risk tone across financial markets, driven by a weakness in US dollar and global bond yields. But rising oil prices are among reasons that could prevent the EUR/USD from rising much further.

GBP/USD rises as the UK economy grew fast than expected in 2022, US inflation data is up next. EUR/USD rises ahead of inflation data.

Last week we noted that bond yields could trump economic data this week, and for the most part they did. We can also extend that comment into next week, especially if they continue to retreat and loosen their grip on bearish sentiment and allow risk assets to rebound. Highlights in next week’s calendar include the NFP and ISM PMI reports, RBA and RBNZ monetary policy meetings, the quarterly Tankan survey for Japan and Canada’s employment report.

Whatever the catalyst, something strange happened in US Treasuries on Thursday: bond yields actually fell, sparking speculation of an impending reversal.