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FTSE outlook: UK stocks underperform again but future may be brighter

FTSE continues to underperform European and US markets, with new records or multi-year highs set for mainland European indices after S&P crossed 5K. Yet the FTSE was lower again. Still, UK stocks are at “record cheap” levels ahead of busy week of data.

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February 12, 2024 10:30 AM
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Euro Forecast: EUR/USD Testing Key Support at 1.08 Ahead of Fed, NFP

EUR/USD is testing key support near 1.0800 with major crosswinds from month-end flows, the Fed, and NFP this week.

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January 29, 2024 07:57 PM

EUR/USD analysis: ECB day arrives with US GDP also in focus

The European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to acknowledge that the current state of the Eurozone economy, with growth hovering around zero, is not great. However, it will probably highlight more forcefully signs suggesting that inflation is not making swift progress towards their 2% target, particularly in light of the persistent pressure on wages.

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January 25, 2024 10:28 AM

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EUR/USD looks dazed and confused ahead of Ifo, ECB: European open

The 1-hour chart for EUR/USD is a sight for sore eyes. It lacks a defined trend and has seen bursts of volatility in both directions before reverting to the centre of its sideways chopfest. But with key events within sight, we may be able to get a breakout or at least a clearer picture.

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January 25, 2024 04:49 AM
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EUR/JPY: US data in control without BOJ or ECB rate shock

EUR/JPY sits near two-month highs heading into the BOJ and ECB interest rate decisions, consolidating after a strong rally that saw the pair add nearly eight big figures from the lows of December.

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January 22, 2024 11:23 PM

EUR/AUD traders eyeing a bounce or break from 200-day moving average

The proximity of EUR/AUD to its 200-day moving average and uptrend support presents an opportunity for traders to position for either a bounce or break from this technical juncture, providing favourable risk-reward depending on which way the price moves.

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January 22, 2024 04:19 AM
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EUR/AUD looking toppy following Australia’s jobs report

Having spiked to two-month highs in the immediate aftermath of Australia’s December jobs report, EUR/AUD reversed hard, generating a bearish pin candle on the four-hourly suggesting it may have seen a near-term top.

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January 18, 2024 04:46 AM
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FTSE analysis: Banks and luxury stocks weigh ahead of key data

FTSE analysis: Why has UK 100 struggled? Top-tier Chinese, UK and US data could ignite much-needed momentum into the FTSE this week, as technical analysis suggests bulls may still be clinging on...

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January 15, 2024 12:30 PM
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FTSE analysis: UK index looks to buck EU market weakness as oil climbs

Disappointing Eurozone data put some pressure on European indices on Thursday morning, following the sizeable rally in Europe and US the day before. This saw major European indices drop sharply this morning, led by a 2% fall in Spain’s Ibex. But the FTSE was holding its own relatively better, as rebounding crude oil helped to fuel a rally in energy stocks.

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January 9, 2024 11:30 AM
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EUR/USD 2024 Fundamental Outlook Preview

Stronger US growth and similar inflation on both sides of the Atlantic could lead to more aggressive interest rate cuts from the ECB, boosting EUR/USD.

Euro Analysis: EUR/USD Bounces Off 1.09 – 1.10 Retest Next?

Time will tell if the ECB is forced to cut interest rates sooner and more aggressively than it hopes to, but clearly markets are content betting against central banks’ “higher for longer” mantra.

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December 18, 2023 03:01 PM
Research

FTSE and Pound analysis: BoE not so dovish after Fed pivot

The FTSE eased off from earlier highs on not-so-dovish BoE hold. The key takeaway point is that there was no pivot, with the BoE warning that there's still some way to go on inflation front. This implies tight policy for longer. GBP/USD extends post FOMC rally as BoE's "finely balanced" decision saw three dissenters voted for 25bps hike.

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December 14, 2023 12:30 PM

EUR/USD, EUR/GBP in focus for BOE and ECB meetings: European open

We have arguably seen the biggest central bank surprise of the week, with the Fed’s dovish pivot. But that may also influence the tone of the SNB, BOE and ECB at their meetings today – even if only to a degree.

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December 14, 2023 04:47 AM
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Dow theory put to the test as DJIA breakout leads S&P 500, Nasdaq 100

The Dow Jones (DJIA) closed to a record high after the latest FOMC meeting. Will this pave the way for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 to follow suit?

US CPI, FOMC, BOE, ECB and SNB on tap: The Week Ahead

Four major central banks meeting next week including the FOMC, ECB, BOE and SNB. While no changes are expected, traders want to know who may be the first to cut rates.

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December 7, 2023 02:56 AM
Research

FTSE 100, DAX analysis: UK lags EU and US stock market recovery

After hitting a new all-time high in February, the FTSE has struggled to find any sustainable support, hurt by concerns over China, UK’s struggling economy and high interest rates across the world. But we have had some positive data out of China, the UK and US this week, which may mean the worst days are behind us.

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November 16, 2023 11:30 AM
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Euro Analysis: EUR/USD Bounces Back to Near Flat on the Week

EUR/USD is ticking higher as the US dollar edges lower on progress toward peace in the Middle East...

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October 27, 2023 06:42 PM

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Euro Analysis: EUR/USD’s Early Week Rally Stalls, Bears Still in Control

EUR/USD’s early week rally is reversing, keeping the downward bias intact within a bearish channel...

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October 18, 2023 05:26 PM

EUR/USD: Dollar bolstered by safe haven status, energy riches and economic momentum

EUR/USD must be one of the most well-behaved FX pairs in the world right now, sitting comfortably in a long-running downtrend, refusing to stray too far from the current trajectory no matter what the world is throwing at it.

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October 17, 2023 06:10 AM

EUR/USD: Corrective rebound put to the test by packed events calendar

The durability of the EUR/USD rebound will be put to the test over the next 48 hours as traders face a raft of events that could make-or-break the medium-term outlook for US bond yields and the USD.

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October 11, 2023 02:48 AM
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EUR/USD: Inflation data creates make-or-break moment for common currency

EUR/USD faces a stern test in the days ahead, battling divergent fundamentals, increasing risk aversion and a technical backdrop that’s as bearish as any in the G10 FX universe right now.

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September 28, 2023 12:47 AM
Research

EUR/USD headed for 105? WTI crude oil hits YTD high: Asian Open

The ECB delivered a relatively dovish hike whilst US data once again outperformed. And that was the perfect catalyst to send EUR/USD to a 4-low (and speculative positioning suggests there may be further downside to come). WTI crude oil rose above $90, and it appears to have more fuel in the tank to perhaps head for the October high.

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September 14, 2023 11:41 PM
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EUR/USD implied volatility blows out ahead of ECB, US data: European open

With an ECB interest rate decision and three US data points sandwiched in between, we could be in for an interest hour's trade on EUR/USD. And that likely explains why the 1-day implied volatility band is more than twice its 20-day average.