Energy

Stronger GDP, core durable goods orders and the drop in oil inventories have all helped to alleviate demand concerns somewhat, reducing the pressure on oil prices. After today’s reversal-looking price candle, our crude oil forecast has turned modestly bullish.

Crude oil prices turned high on the session, with Brent finding good support from $84.00 and WTI around $80.50. We are still anticipating higher oil prices due to slower output growth in H2, which should means a tighter oil market. Therefore, our crude oil forecast remains bullish.

Recent softness in global data has weighed on oil investors’ expectations about the level of demand growth. Yet, some oil forecasters like the Energy Information Administration (EIA) continue to envisage higher oil prices, thanks largely to lower output growth. We also share this view and reckon oil prices are heading further higher in H2 as the market tightens. Our crude oil forecast thus remains bullish.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil was slightly off its best levels but remained on track to close higher for the fourth consecutive week as of late Friday. In the week ahead, keep an eye on crude inventories and consumer inflation data from the US.

It is possible we could see crude oil prices come under pressure again after the recent recovery. After all, there are several factors that are likely to limit the upside potential from here, including increased non-OPEC supply, which is undermining the OPEC+ efforts to stabilise the markets.

While there is hope for increased fuel demand as we head deeper into the US driving season, today’s recovery comes on the back of a three-week drop amid concerns over demand in China and rising non-OPEC supply. So, it remains to be seen whether the recovery can hold. The crude oil forecast will be under spotlight when the Fed make a decision on interest rates later this week.

The crude oil selling resumed on Friday after a two-day respite, although the losses were not as severe as those observed earlier in the week and far less forceful than the drop in metals. This is because a strong jobs report and services PMI data both helped to reduce fears over weakening demand in the US...

Today’s release of a much stronger-than-expected ISM services PMI report has also helped to reduce economic slowdown fears, and this is helping oil prices. Traders have largely shrugged off the unexpected build in US crude oil stocks. In light of today’s recovery, the short-term crude oil forecast has turned moderately bullish.

Crude oil investors eye clues about demand outlook ahead of busy week, as OPEC+ cuts and reduced fears about Eurozone economy keep oil prices supported. WTI technical analysis suggests trend is still bullish.

Crude oil demand outlook will come into a sharp focus this week with the release of the global manufacturing PMI data, US GDP and the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation this week. Still, Middle East tensions remain the key driver of short-term price action. Meanwhile, WTI technical analysis suggests the longer-term trend is still bullish.

Middle East concerns should keep the downside limited for crude oil, after prices slid 3% as demand concerns intensified on weaker Chinese industrial data and amid the prospects of higher interest rates for longer. WTI technical analysis suggests the longer-term trend remains bullish, with the first short-term support level to watch coming in around $82 area.

Crude oil looks set to end March and the first quarter higher. Oil prices have been buoyed by easing demand concerns and sustained supply cuts by the OPEC+. Meanwhile WTI technical analysis points higher, for as long as $79-$80 support area holds.

Crude oil analysis: China set to import record volumes of Russian oil in March, as oil extends weekly breakout ahead of a busy week for financial markets.

Factors supporting oil price include optimism over China, bullish forecast from IEA and general strength in commodities.

Crude oil outlook boosted from multiple sources today, including a weaker US dollar, a bigger than expected crude product draw, and positive risk sentiment after China set ambitious growth target

What does OPEC’s decision mean for oil prices is discussed in this article. We also take a look at the WTI chart, with technical analysis pointing higher. But bullish momentum needs to resume and fast.

Technical levels and factors on Brent discussed in this article, ahead of the publication of global PMIs and crude inventories data, which could provide catalyst for a potential breakout.