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S&P500 Forecast: SPX rises as banks kick off Q2 earnings season

U.S. stocks point to a modestly stronger start as investors digest hotter-than-expected producer price inflation and the start of earnings season. JP Morgan & Citigroup impressed, while Wells Fargo Group posted disappointing net interest income. PPI was hotter than expected, serving as a reminder of how fragile the inflation outlook is.

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July 12, 2024 03:22 PM
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Nasdaq100 Forecast: QQQ rises as cooling inflation lifts Fed rate cut expectations

U.S. stocks are pointing to a higher start after US inflation data showed consumer prices cooled further in June, easing to 3% YoY from 3.3%. Core inflation also eased by more than expected to 3.3%. The market has ramped up rate cut expectations and is pricing in an 87% chance of a September rate cut. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 rose to record highs.

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July 11, 2024 02:05 PM
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GBP/USD, Oil Forecast: Two trades to watch

GBP/USD looks to Fed Powell & BoE speakers. Oil falls after China data & ahead of OPEC's monthly oil report.

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S&P 500 Forecast: SPX edges higher ahead of Powell & CPI data later this week

US stocks are pointing to a modestly positive start after strong gains last week; the Nasdaq 100 and S&P500 hover around record highs, boosted by optimism that the Federal Reserve could start to cut interest rates as soon as September. The economic calendar is quiet today, but Federal Reserve Chair Powell testifies before the Senate Banking Committee this week. US CPI data will also be in focus.

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July 8, 2024 02:02 PM
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JPY, EUR, CAD, AUD, Crude Oil Analysis: COT report

Large speculators flipped to net-short exposure to EUR/USD ahead of the French election. Open interest on CAD futures fell at its fastest pace in nearly one year as the sentiment extreme we warned of plays out. Net-long exposure to AUD/USD futures fell to a 3-year low, and prospects of net-long exposure are now on the horizon with the potential for an RBA hike.

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Crude Oil Outlook: Monthly Close Ahead of FOMC Minutes Week

Crude Oil Outlook: Crude oil breaks above its 7-day consolidation, and key 82 level ahead of monthly close.

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Crude Oil Forecast: Inventory Increase vs PCE Data

Crude Oil Forecast: latest inventory data surged up and oil prices are still ranging near 2-month highs

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Crude Oil Forecast: Analysis Update

Crude Oil Forecast: oil’s uptrend is facing challenges between resistance levels and inventory changes. What’s next for today’s inventory release?

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June 26, 2024 09:57 AM
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EUR/USD, Oil Forecast: Two trades to watch

EUR/USD struggles with French elections and US data in focus. Oil steadies ahead of API stockpile data.

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S&P 500 Forecast: SPX muted ahead of Friday's inflation data

U.S. stocks point to a mixed open, with the S&P 500 and the Dow edging higher, while the NASDAQ points to a weaker start ahead of key inflation data on Friday. The market is pricing in two rare cuts this year while the Fed projects one. Nvidia is set to open lower, extending its selloff from Friday. The stock briefly overtook Microsoft as the world's most valuable company. The US economic calendar is quiet today.

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June 24, 2024 02:15 PM
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Nasdaq100 Forecast: QQQ rises ahead of PMI data

U.S. stocks are heading for a quiet open as Nvidia loses ground, and investors look cautiously ahead to PMI data. Nvidia is falling after reaching another ATH this week, pushing the S&P500 and Nasdaq to ATHs. US economic data has shown signs of softening, and the PMI data today is expected to continue this theme.

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June 21, 2024 02:30 PM
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S&P500 Forecast: SPX rises lifted by Nvidia & weaker jobless claims

U.S. stocks are set for a stronger open as traders return from the Juneteenth public holiday, digest softer-than-expected US jobless claims, and Nvidia extends its impressive rally. Jobless claims were virtually unchanged from last week's 9-month high, which combined with weaker retail sales earlier in the week, point to a softening in the economy, which could see the Fed cut rates sooner.

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June 20, 2024 02:22 PM
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GBP/USD, Oil Forecast: Two trades to watch

GBP/USD rises as inflation finally reaches the BoE's 2% target.Oil steadies amid geopolitical concerns and a build in crude stockpiles.

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June 19, 2024 09:43 AM
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S&P500 Forecast :SPX unchanged after weaker retail sales ,Fed speakers are in focus

US stocks are set for a quiet start after US retail sales were weaker than expected and with Federal Reserve speakers in focus. Retail sales show that consumption is moderating as inflation and interest rates remain high and unemployment rises. Looking ahead, Fed speakers are in focus after recent officials have supported the view that one rate cut this year is appropriate.

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June 18, 2024 02:45 PM
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S&P500 Forecast: SPX muted ahead of Fed speakers & retail sales later in the week

U.S. stocks are heading for a muted start as the dust settles on last week's inflation data and Federal Reserve interest rate decision. There is no high-impacting data today, so attention will be on tomorrow's retail sales data and Fed speakers for more clues about when the Fed could start cutting rates. Last week, the Fed pointed to one rate cut this year. However, the market is still pricing in two rate cuts.

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June 17, 2024 02:20 PM
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EUR/USD, Oil Forecast: Two trades to watch

EUR/USD steadies with political uncertainty still at the forefront, Oil falls after weak US consumer sentiment & China data.

USD, EUR/USD, USD/CAD, Crude Oil, Dow Jones Analysis: COT report

Bears were busy last week as they piled into shorts against EUR/USD and the Dow Jones, and also reached a record level of net-short exposure to the Canadian dollar. And this was beneficial for USD bulls.

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Dow Jones Forecast: DJIA falls post-Fed & as PPI falls, jobless claims rise

US stocks are heading for a mixed open as the market continues digesting yesterday's Fed meeting. Policymakers lowered rate cut expectations to just one cut this year and did so after a slight weakening in monthly CPI. Today, data showed PPI fell in May, and jobless claims jumped. Meanwhile, the tech sector, lifted by chip stocks, is benefiting the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 but not the Dow Jones.

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June 13, 2024 02:06 PM
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S&P 500 Forecast: SPX hits an ATH as CPI cools & the Fed comes into focus

S&P 500 rises to a new ATH after inflation cooled by more than expected in May. The data comes ahead to the FOMC rate decision, where the Fed is expected to leave rates unchanged but could downwardly revise the doy plot from 3 rate cuts this year to 2 or even 1 cut. Attention will also be on the updated projections and Fed Chair Powell's press- conference. A cautious tone could see stocks give back some of their gains.

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June 12, 2024 02:19 PM
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S&P 500 Forecast: SPX falls as the Fed's 2-day FOMC meeting begins

US stocks are pointing to a lower start in jittery trade as the Federal Reserve's two-day monetary policy meeting begins. With no high-impacting data today, attention is firmly on tomorrow's CPI print and the FOMC decision a few hours later. The Fed is expected to leave policy unchanged so attention will be on the dot plot and projections. Separately, Apple's unveiling of its AI strategy received a lukewarm reaction from Wall Street.

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June 11, 2024 02:16 PM
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Dow Jones Forecast: DJIA slips amid a cautious mood ahead of this week's FOMC meeting

US stocks are set to open modestly lower, extending losses from Friday, after the non-farm payroll smashed forecasts and raised doubts about a September Federal Reserve rate cut. The mood is cautious ahead of this week's US inflation data and FOMC meeting. Elsewhere the EUR is falling sharply after a surprise snap election in France. Apple is in focus ahead of the Developer's conference.

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June 10, 2024 02:28 PM
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USD, GBP/USD, Gold, Crude Oil Analysis: COT report

Traders may have reduced net-long exposure to USD futures in aggregate, but they remain net-long and a bullish reversal week formed on the USD index. We also take a look at GBP/USD, gold, WTI crude oil and US indices positioning (S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100).

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Dow Jones Forecast: DJIA falls after a stronger NFP report

US stocks are falling lower after the stronger-than-expected non-farm payroll data raised questions over whether the Federal Reserve will be able to cut rates in September. The data comes after mixed data across this week and ahead of the US CPI and the FOMC rate decision next week. Oil prices are set to fall across the week after Sunday's OPEC+ meeting, which raised concerns over increased supply later in the week.

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June 7, 2024 02:06 PM