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EUR/USD, NZD/USD: Abundant fuel to spark a squeeze

EUR/USD and NZD/USD have returned to territory where they’ve attracted buying in the past. Given this week is likely to confirm ebbing inflationary pressures in the United States, adding to the case for Fed rate cuts, and with French election uncertainty now arguably priced in, there’s fuel around to spark some form of squeeze in the days ahead.

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GBP/USD: Cable dangles above support as bears seek downside break

This week comes across as a pivotal one for GBP/USD, teetering above technical support ahead of arguably the most important data release worldwide when it comes to the global interest rate outlook, the US core PCE deflator. If the recent price action is any indication, risks look to be building to the downside.

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Today 03:24 AM
Market trader analysing data

Gold, silver forecast: Metals drop to test key support levels

In the months ahead, our gold and silver outlook remains positive. Inflation continues to rise in the US, and although it has significantly decreased in Europe and other regions, the risk of deflation is minimal, particularly with the recent surge in oil prices.

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June 21, 2024 05:10 PM

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EUR/USD, GBP/USD outlook undermined as US dollar extends rise – Forex Friday

The dollar has strengthened thanks to weakness in European PMI data released earlier today and ongoing concerns about the upcoming elections in France and the UK, both holding back the euro and pound. Meanwhile a surprise rate cut by the SNB hurt the franc on Thursday, which was followed by a marginally more dovish Bank of England rate decision than expected.

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Gold consolidating bullish break, tailwinds to strengthen next week?

Gold has been on a nice run recently, breaking out of the pennant it had been coiling in before doing away with the downtrend dating back to the highs set in May. Considering the drift higher in US bond yields, along with a stronger US dollar, the move has been doubly impressive.

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June 21, 2024 07:25 AM
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Nasdaq 100 Forecast: Tech Rally Pauses for Breather as Index Hits Resistance

Today, the Nasdaq 100 reached a new milestone, climbing above 20K for the first time ever before retreating.

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GBP/USD forecast: Pound drops as BoE hints at rate cuts

The MPC voted 7-2 to hold rates, with Dhingra and Ramadan again voting to cut rates. But the fact that this decision was "finely" balanced means the balance could shift towards a cut should economic conditions deteriorate, or inflation does not accelerate again.

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June 20, 2024 02:07 PM
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GBP/USD, FTSE Forecast: Two trades to watch

GBP/USD awaits the BoE rate decision. FTSE 100 rises ahead of the BoE rate decision.

commodities trading

Silver leads the breakout for gold, but resistance looms

Silver broke above $30 to reach a 9-day high today, before gold tried to mimic its move with limited success. And with silver stalling around resistance, I remain suspicious of the move higher on gold.

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June 20, 2024 07:05 AM
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USD/CNH hits 2024 highs as PBOC loosens grip on yuan

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) continues to loosen its grip on the Chinese yuan, sending USD/CNH highs not seen since late 2023 on Thursday. Given the influence the yuan has on emerging market and other Asian currencies, the technical break may have global ramifications if it sticks.

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June 20, 2024 06:17 AM
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USD/CHF traders are nervous of being ‘caught short’ ahead of SNB

Futures traders may be heavily net-short Swiss Francs, but the rapid rise of the currency this week ahead of the SNB meeting suggests some are wary of being caught short a less-dovish central bank.

Research

Hang Seng leads the way, ASX and China A50 set to follow?

The Hang Seng enjoyed its best day in three months. And with key support levels for the China A50 and ASX 200 holding, perhaps they can try to close the gap this week.

NZD/USD: New Zealand exits recession as the Kiwi contemplates upside

New Zealand is no longer in recession with economic activity expanding 0.2% in the first quarter, leaving it 0.3% higher than a year earlier. Markets has been looking for slightly softer numbers at 0.1% and 0.2% respectively. NZD/USD is pushing higher.

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June 20, 2024 12:17 AM
Forex trading

EUR/USD outlook remains as clear as mud

FX investors will look ahead to two major central bank decisions on Thursday and US weekly jobless claims figures, building permits and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, which could impact the short-term EUR/USD outlook. But the main focus will be on France’s snap election taking place on June 30.

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June 19, 2024 05:31 PM
Research

FTSE 100 Forecast Boosted by CPI and Crude Rally Ahead of Elections

The FTSE moved moderately higher after the UK’s inflation rate fell to the Bank of England’s 2% target ahead of for the central bank’s rate section on Thursday.

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June 19, 2024 01:00 PM
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Hang Seng, copper rout reverses course, turning point in the making?

Hang Seng's strong correlation with COMEX copper and SGX iron ore futures over the past month suggests many traders are using it as a mechanism to speculate on the outlook for Chinese industrial activity, especially the housing market.

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June 19, 2024 06:27 AM
Research

AUD/JPY nears 2013 high, focus shifts to Australian inflation report

A relatively hawkish meeting from the RBA has supported AUD over the past 24 hours, sent AUD/JPY to an 11-year high and made next week's inflation report the more important.

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June 19, 2024 04:38 AM

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Gold dancing to its own tune, placing emphasis on price for direction

Gold has been dancing to its own tune recently. The strong, positive correlation with other metals prices has weakened over the past month. So too its relationship with the US dollar and real US bond yields, its traditional drivers – it’s basically nonexistent. The lack of key drivers puts more emphasis on the price action for directional clues.

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June 19, 2024 03:17 AM
Forex trading

158 continues to defy USD/JPY bulls, AUD/USD rebounds in style

Weak US retail sales alongside a relatively hawkish RBA statement gave AUD/USD a decent lift from range lows and further strengthened a case for a top to form on USD/JPY.

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June 19, 2024 12:35 AM
Forex trading

EUR/USD outlook hinges on French election

The US dollar has been little-changed so far this week, after starting the week moderately lower on Monday following a two-week rally and turning slightly higher today against a basket of foreign currency. The highlight of the day is the May US retail sales data.

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June 18, 2024 12:30 PM
Australian flag

AUD/USD squeezing higher as RBA tone shifts more hawkish

The RBA has evidence to justify continued vigilance towards continued upside inflation surprises, vowing it will do what it is necessary to bring it back to the 2.5% midpoint of its inflation target. But it’s not yet compelling enough to warrant hiking rates, choosing to retain a neutral bias in June.

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June 18, 2024 07:33 AM
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China A50 could be teeing up for a rebound, Nikkei 225 remains trapped

The China A50 has shown early signs of stabilising around support levels after a 4-week decline. The bear case for the Nikkei is not dead, but it may be sleeping whilst it remains rangebound on the weekly chart.

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June 18, 2024 03:12 AM
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USD/JPY hints at another false break, AUD/USD looks set to bounce

The US dollar index formed a small bearish inside day after once again failing to hold onto gains above 105.20 for the second day in a row. This could allow for some mean reversion for soe of its FX peers, and for today we have a potential AUD/USD long and USD/JPY short in focus.