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AUD/USD, US dollar, Swiss franc analysis: COT report – Feb 26, 2024

Traders remained net-long US dollar index futures last week, although asset managers have the more convincing bullish view for the dollar.

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Gold Weekly Forecast: XAU/USD Nears February Highs, Inflation in Focus

Gold is carrying short-term bullish momentum into the coming week, with potential for a move up toward the 2024 highs in the $2060 area.

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Gold didn’t last long below $2000 despite higher US yields and dollar

Higher bond yields, stronger US dollar, no major escalation in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. It’s the kind of backdrop you wouldn’t expect gold to thrive in. But its first probe below $2000 per ounce in 2024 didn’t last long, rebounding strongly to push back into the range it’s been operating in since mid-December.

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February 19, 2024 01:40 AM

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JPY futures near sentiment extreme, USD set to retrace? COT report

With the USD showing signs of a potential pullbacks and JPY futures nearing a potential sentiment extreme, USD/JPY may well struggle to break and hold above 152. EUR/USD also looks set to bounce despite lower net-long exposure, and gold future may struggle to hold above $2000 given the rise in short and trimming of long bets.

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Gold, crude oil looking heavy despite reversal in bond yields, US dollar

Gold and crude oil are looking heavy despite a large reversal in US bond yields from the highs struck on Tuesday, unable to find any meaningful traction despite the improvement in risk appetite and softer US dollar.

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February 15, 2024 05:46 AM

EUR/USD, US dollar, Dow Jones, crude oil analysis: COT report

Traders increased their bearish exposure to EUR/USD futures at their fastest pace in 20 months last week, and large speculators increased their net-long exposure to US dollar index futures despite being on the cusp of flipping to net-short exposure the week prior.

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Gold outlook: Home on the range with significant risk events ahead

Gold held up well last week despite rising US yields, assisted in part by continued geopolitical tension in the Middle East. But in week with key inflation reports in the United States and United Kingdom, there are plenty of catalysts looming on the horizon that could shake gold from its slumber.

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February 9, 2024 06:02 AM
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USD/JPY, gold, crude oil forecast: COT report – Feb 5, 2024

Bears continued to initiate fresh short bets against the Japanese yen, which points to further potential strength ahead of USD/JPY. Gold bulls trimmed longs for gold futures, and shorts continued to fall for crude oil.

Crude oil bulls eyeing key support following largest three-day plunge in months

Crude oil finished last week nursing its largest three-day decline since October, sliding 7.1% despite escalating geopolitical tensions. But with US and UK forces bombing Iranian-backed militia targets in Yemen, Iraq and Syria over the weekend, grounds for a bounce may be increasing.

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February 4, 2024 10:58 PM
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Gold Forecast: Bond yields and geopolitics on the radar as traders’ eye fresh highs

Gold’s outlook looks set to be dictated by geopolitical tensions along with the US rate outlook. Having broken its downtrend, the directional risks appear skewed to the upside near-term, putting a retest of the highs hit last year on the radar.

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February 3, 2024 02:00 AM
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Risks for crude oil and gold skewing higher as geopolitical tensions build

Geopolitical risks in the Middle East and the US interest rate outlook will be two of the dominant market themes traders will be grappling with this week, creating the potential for renewed volatility in the likes of crude oil and gold.

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January 29, 2024 05:26 AM
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EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, crude oil analysis: COT report – Jan 29, 2024

The commitment of traders (COT) report shows how large speculators are positioned across futures markets on the CME exchange.

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USD bears have a rethink, GBP and AUD positioning diverges: COT report

The US dollar index rallied in line with last week’s bias on assumed short-covering. AUD/USD bears are retuning whilst traders pushed net-long exposure higher, making GBP/AUD longs of interest over the coming weeks.

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USD/CAD, Crude Oil Forecast: USD/CAD Rally Pauses as WTI Breaks Out

WTI Crude Oil is rallying as the IEA revised its 2024 oil demand growth forecast up to 1.24M bpd amidst ongoing tensions in the Middle East.

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January 18, 2024 06:53 PM
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Crude oil, gold: Impact of latest geopolitical headlines didn’t last long

Traders come across as almost desensitised to geopolitical developments in the Middle East nowadays, unable to sustain market moves on increased tensions beyond anything other than the short-term. Just look at gold and crude oil last Friday for evidence.

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January 15, 2024 02:00 AM
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US dollar bears remain undeterred: COT report

Traders were their most bearish on the US dollar against all currencies in four months, despite the Fed's attempt to push back on multipole rate cuts this year.

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January 15, 2024 01:45 AM
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Crude oil, gold finding buyers as Middle Eastern tensions escalate

Upside risks for gold and crude oil look appear be building as the war between Israel and Hamas fighters in Gaza threatens to spillover to a far larger and more disruptive regional conflict.

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January 12, 2024 12:08 AM

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Gold isn’t responding to shifts in US interest rate like it used to

Gold’s inverse relationship with US real bond yields weakened late last year as geopolitical tensions ramped up, delivering less upside than what would have typically occurred in the past, according to Morgan Stanley.

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January 10, 2024 03:57 AM
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Crude oil 2024 technical outlook preview

From a technical standpoint, crude oil's focus is on a reaction into this key support zone early in the year with the bearish bias vulnerable while above 62.83

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December 31, 2023 10:25 PM
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Gold 2024 Fundamental Outlook Preview

With a favourable macro backdrop and technical indications pointing higher, see why we could see new records in gold prices in 2024.

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December 26, 2023 09:27 PM

Crude Oil, Canadian Dollar Analysis: WTI’s Surge Drives USD/CAD to 4-Month Lows

While the global supply picture remains murky, the continued growth of US production remains a long-term secular trend, but the potential for disruptions in the Middle East is a short-term risk that is driving prices higher for now.

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December 20, 2023 08:23 PM
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USD/JPY, GBP/USD, crude oil analysis: COT report – Dec 18, 2023

The commitment of traders (COT) report shows how large speculators are positioned across futures markets on the CME exchange.

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Everything you need to know about market cycles

This trading guide to market cycles covers the definition, how they work and various examples of market cycles.

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December 14, 2023 04:51 PM