Financial market alerts

US data steps away from the limelight to make way for inflation reports from the UK, Canada, New Zealand, and Japan. And throw in an ECB meeting, Australian employment report and the CCP's Third Plenum for good measure.

US data steps away from the limelight to make way for inflation reports from the UK, Canada, New Zealand, and Japan. And throw in an ECB meeting, Australian employment report and the CCP's Third Plenum for good measure.

Traders and economists expect the US CPI report to fall to 3.1% y/y on a headline basis, with the “Core” (ex-food and -energy) reading expected to hold steady at 3.4% y/y.

Traders and economists expect the US CPI report to fall to 3.1% y/y on a headline basis, with the “Core” (ex-food and -energy) reading expected to hold steady at 3.4% y/y.

A confirmed break below $2275 support in gold would project a “measured move” objective for the pattern down around $2100.

Inflation reports are the main theme for next week, with figures set to be released from the US, Canada, Australia and Japan. EUR/USD traders might want to be on guard for headline risk surrounding French elections, as it is the last full week before votes are cast and that means polls could easily sway sentient for European markets.

Why might the Fed cut rates in July? Inflation is running below the Fed’s target with timely measures of shelter inflation, jobless claims are ticking up, monetary policy is tight per the Taylor Rule, and the election is looming.

Bond markets make the financial markets go round, so when they provide a strong signal on how Wednesday’s US consumer price inflation report may be interpreted, every trader should sit up and take notice.

Long bond bulls will not like the message coming from the recent price action in the TLT ETF, warning of the potential for higher yields and increased capital losses. With little technical support below where it currently sits, it places even more importance on the Fed chooses to signal this week.

GBP/USD remains in a bullish technical position ahead of the US CPI report - see what we're watching!

After slipping for the past three weeks, the US Dollar Index is testing key previous support at the 103.00 level, potentially setting the stage for a bounce on solid jobs data.

Traders are pricing in a small, but non-zero, chance of a Fed rate hike in 2024. Those odds could grow with a couple more hotter-than-expected inflation reports.

Gold is carrying short-term bullish momentum into the coming week, with potential for a move up toward the 2024 highs in the $2060 area.

The U.S. Dollar broke out and set another fresh 2024 high this morning as the currency continues to claw back Q4 losses.

US CPI may be quiet this month, but the recent surge in the “Prices” component of the ISM PMI surveys hints that inflation could reaccelerate this Spring.

AUD/USD traders will keep a close eye on US inflation data to decipher Fed policy, Australia's employment report to see if another month of strong job losses ensues.