Financial market alerts

The US dollar rises as the Fed still expects another rate hike and only two rate cuts next year

Whilst the Fed are expected to hold rates steady in September, next week’s FOMC meeting also includes the quarterly staff projections. And changes to dot plot or CPI estimates can be as good as a hike where market reactions are concerned. The odds of another BOE are next week are not as high as they were, which makes the preceding inflation report paramount to expectations for their next decision. And whilst the BOJ are unlikely to act, that is no reason to drop your guard given their tendency to surprise once in a while. We also have flash PMIs for major regions and inflation data to mull over.

USD/JPY was rising on the back of USD strength earlier in the Asian session, with USD/JPY seemingly trying to close its large weekend opening gap ahead of US CPI data. GBP/AUD has also caught our eye as its 3-wave retracement is trying to form a base around a support cluster.

It's the last trading week of August, and it's fair to say that market conditions were more volatile and eventful than this time of year tends to provide. At the time of writing, we're yet to hear what Fed Chair Jerome Powell has to say, but it could certainly set the tone for next week's trade. And there is no shortage of data to kick off September, including US PCE inflation, GDP, and the ISM manufacturing survey. Final PMIs are also published for the US, UK, Europe, Japan, and Australia. And incoming RBA Governor Bullock speaks, and a host of Australian data includes CPI, retail sales, home loans, and capex.

USD/JPY is holding steady near its highest levels of the year, with traders watching the well-defined short-term range from 145.00-146.60...

Gold is threatening to close lower for its 6th straight day, with potential to extend its drop toward $1865 before finding support...

GBP/USD is approaching near-term resistance around 1.2800 ahead of tomorrow’s retail sales report...

A near-term bottom may be in for a USD/CAD rally back toward 1.3300+, depending on Canada’s CPI reading...

Fears of stagflation in the UK are increasing amid supply bottlenecks, energy shortages and cost of living fears. But what exactly is stagflation? And what could it mean for the economy?

AUD/USD fell to a 3-week low following today’s CPI report, which could see the RBA members sigh in relief as the rate of inflation slows.

The S&P 500 is still holding this week’s breakout above key previous resistance in the 4325 area, keeping bullish hopes alive

Gold is poised for a potential breakout around the Fed meeting after spending the last 4 weeks consolidating in a tight $50 range.

USD/JPY has spent the last three weeks consolidating in a symmetrical triangle pattern but a breakout may be imminent...

USD/CAD is falling to test a key trend line after the BOC surprised markets with a 25bps interest rate increase

Investors’ focus now turns back to US data as speculation over whether the Fed will hike in June continues. Watch out for fresh EUR/USD analysis from the team as the data could shift Fed bets again.

We could be off to a quiet start to the week as public holidays in the UK and US will see key trading hubs closed on Monday. But whilst low-liquidity sessions can be quiet, they can also provide uncomfortable levels of volatility should an unexpected catalyst arrive.