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Bad news for long bond bulls following bearish break

Long bond bulls will not like the message coming from the recent price action in the TLT ETF, warning of the potential for higher yields and increased capital losses. With little technical support below where it currently sits, it places even more importance on the Fed chooses to signal this week.

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US CPI Preview: GBP/USD Pulls Back to 1.2800 – Has US Inflation Bottomed?

GBP/USD remains in a bullish technical position ahead of the US CPI report - see what we're watching!

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March 11, 2024 03:15 PM
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NFP Preview: Is the US Dollar Poised for a Bounce Back?

After slipping for the past three weeks, the US Dollar Index is testing key previous support at the 103.00 level, potentially setting the stage for a bounce on solid jobs data.

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Interest Rate Shock: What Happens If the Fed Hikes Instead of Cuts?

Traders are pricing in a small, but non-zero, chance of a Fed rate hike in 2024. Those odds could grow with a couple more hotter-than-expected inflation reports.

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March 4, 2024 07:53 PM
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Gold Weekly Forecast: XAU/USD Nears February Highs, Inflation in Focus

Gold is carrying short-term bullish momentum into the coming week, with potential for a move up toward the 2024 highs in the $2060 area.

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U.S. Dollar Post-CPI: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, XAU/USD (Gold)

The U.S. Dollar broke out and set another fresh 2024 high this morning as the currency continues to claw back Q4 losses.

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US CPI Preview: USD/JPY Tests 2024 Highs, Tame Inflation Expected

US CPI may be quiet this month, but the recent surge in the “Prices” component of the ISM PMI surveys hints that inflation could reaccelerate this Spring.

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AUD/USD weekly outlook: US inflation, AU jobs figures to drive AUD

AUD/USD traders will keep a close eye on US inflation data to decipher Fed policy, Australia's employment report to see if another month of strong job losses ensues.

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S&P 500, DJIA, Gold: How 40+ Years of Fed Rate Cuts Have Impacted Stock Markets and Gold

The start of a new Fed rate cut cycle doesn’t necessarily lead to the “obvious” bullish reaction in the S&P 500 and DJIA that the “don’t fight the Fed” mantra would have you believe... read on to see the actual data!

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Can US inflation data make or break the US dollar? The Week Ahead

Whist the daily charts still appear favourable for another leg higher on the US dollar, the weekly charts and market positioning suggest some dark clouds may lurking above. And incoming CPI or inflation expectations data could make or break the dollar, if they lean enough in either direction.

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February 9, 2024 04:26 AM
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Gold Forecast: Commodity Deflation and Wall Street’s Short Positions

Read on to see how inflation and Fed policy could impact the price of commodities like gold this year!

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February 6, 2024 04:00 PM
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Growing risk RBA may cut rates before the Federal Reserve

There’s a growing risk the RBA may end up cutting interest rates sooner than US Federal Reserve with a slowdown in underlying inflationary pressures in the December quarter seeing markets shift forward expectation for a 25 basis point rate cut to early May.

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January 31, 2024 02:30 AM
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Gold Forecast: Why “Inflation Hedge” Gold is Falling, Despite Hot US CPI

The dollar’s strength and opportunity cost of holding gold are outweighing its inflation hedge credentials

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January 11, 2024 06:53 PM
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US CPI Forecast: USD/JPY Consolidates Just Below 145.00 Resistance Ahead of Inflation

Interestingly, the year-over-year reading on US CPI is expected to rise for only the third time since mid-2022, but the increase is expected primarily due to so-called “base effects"...

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EUR/USD Forecast: US Dollar Falls on Fading Inflation Expectations

Given the quiet economic calendar, EUR/USD may consolidate with a slight bullish bias over the next couple of days ahead US CPI and PPI.

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The Week Ahead: Has the US Dollar Index Trend Turned?

The US Dollar Index's failed breakout and sharp bearish reversal suggests that a near-term top may be in and the path of least resistance will be to the downside in the coming week.

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Gold 2024 Fundamental Outlook Preview

With a favourable macro backdrop and technical indications pointing higher, see why we could see new records in gold prices in 2024.

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December 26, 2023 09:27 PM

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Fed Meeting Recap: FOMC Sends Doves (And Gold) Flying

It appears clear that the next change to interest rates will be a rate cut, and the question now is when exactly the Fed’s easing cycle will begin.

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December 13, 2023 08:10 PM
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US CPI Preview: USD/CAD Nears 200-Day EMA Ahead of Inflation Data

Traders and economists expect the CPI report to show that consumer prices rose 0.0% m/m (3.1% y/y), with “Core” CPI expected at 0.3% m/m (4.0% y/y).

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December 11, 2023 03:24 PM

EUR/USD hits major resistance ahead of US inflation: European open

With inflation data for Europe and the US in today's European session, we take a look at EUR/USD to identify key levels and a directional bias.

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November 30, 2023 04:52 AM
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2024 Market Outlook: US Dollar in Focus as Central Banks Pivot

Why the US dollar could benefit from fewer rate cuts than expected following a relatively quiet 2023...

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EUR/USD, USD/JPY key levels ahead of US inflation: European open

Once again, the 1-day implied volatility levels for EUR/USD and USD/JPY have blown out ahead of a busy calendar. Central bank members from the Fed, ECB, BOE and SNB will hit the wires, European GDP is also on tap ahead of the key US inflation report.

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US Dollar Analysis: USD/JPY Tests 30+ Year Highs Ahead of US CPI

With the decline in the inflation rate seemingly stalling, a higher-than-expected inflation reading is likely to be more impactful to markets.

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November 13, 2023 04:05 PM