US Tech 100

US stocks inch higher, consolidating after a strong rally across November. Expectations that the Fed is done hiking rates has boosted demand for equities. Investors are in wait and see mode ahead of the FOMC minutes tomorrow and Nvidia's earnings. Microsoft is in focus after hiring Sam Altman the ex-CEO of open AI who was ousted by the board on Friday.

The Nasdaq and S&P 500 both seem somewhat overbought following a rapid three-week surge. Wednesday's price action has raised the possibility of a short-term pullback. Despite this, it's essential to differentiate any potential short-term weakness from a bearish reversal, unless price action on the charts or a strong pushback from the Federal Reserve indicate otherwise.

The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are all testing key resistance levels and could pull back over the next couple days...

We are now in mid-November and US stock markets are enjoying one of their best phases this year, all thanks to optimism that interest rates will start to come down in the not-too-distant future now that inflation is on a downward trajectory. The markets do appear a little overbought though after a sharp three-week rally, especially the tech-heavy Nasdaq, so there is a risk of a short-term pullback.

US stocks are set to rise strongly on the open after US inflation cooled by more than expected, fueling bets that the Federal Reserve is done hiking interest rates. US CPI eased to 3.2%YoY from 3.7% in September. Core inflation also cooled. The data comes after the Fed left interest rates on hold in the November meeting but raise questions last week over whether another hike was needed.

The optimism we saw last week was all based on signs of peak interest rates in the US. To give you an idea of what kind of a week it was, the Dow enjoyed its biggest weekly gain since October 2022, while the S&P and Nasdaq had their best weeks since November 2022. While those gains are impressive, so far, we haven’t seen any follow through.

Today’s publication of US jobs report has further cemented expectations that the Fed has reach peaked interest rates. Bond yields and the dollar have sold off as a result, with indices and gold moving higher.

Markets have been loosening financial conditions aggressively ever since the Fed meeting, creating reversal risks should incoming data challenge the dovish narrative. Nasdaq 100 is one market that's run very hard very fast.

There was a bit of relief rally for global markets in the first half of Wednesday’s session after a bruising sell-off on Tuesday. Given that the recovery has not been supported by any fundamental news or development, I suspect the sellers will come back and drive stock prices lower again.

Stocks bounced back in the first half of Friday’s session as yields dipped and the dollar eased. But it is far too early to say the markets have bottomed, as fundamentally nothing has changed. Today’s recovery looks like is driven by profit-taking more than anything, as bonds, indices and major currencies tested some key levels.

US stocks are edging higher ahead of the Federal Reserve interest rate decision. The Fed is expected to leave rates unchanged at 5.25%-5.5%. However, the key focus will be on what comes next. The market is pricing in a 70% probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged again in November. Yet with inflation still over 2%, resilience in the US economy and oil heading towards $100 the Fed is likely to keep the door open for further hikes if needed.

At the time of writing, US index futures were trading near their session highs, boosted by a small decline in global bond yields. Unsurprisingly, UK yields led the falls, and FTSE led the major indices higher, after UK inflation came in weaker than expected, further boosting speculation that the Bank of England may opt for a “dovish rate hike” on Thursday.

With a significant amount of earnings generated overseas, and whose valuations are susceptible to rising risk-free rates, the Nasdaq 100 stands out as one market that looks particularly vulnerable.

Given the driver of the Nikkei’s performance, keep an eye on the Nasdaq’s performance given it continues to bump up against downtrend resistance on an almost daily basis.

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Apple is about to launch the new iPhone 15, but a potential ban in China has soured the mood and threatened to hurt demand.