USD/CAD

With the odds of a Fed cut arriving this year now in jeopardy, it is now over to the BOE, ECB or BOC to take the title as ‘first to begin easing’. And that brings Canadian CPI data into focus today for CAD traders.

GBP/USD has historically seen its strongest gains in April, while USD/CAD has seen its worst performance in April and is testing resistance at its 4-month highs near 1.3600.

USD/CAD rose last week and could extend those gains towards 1.36 as attention turns to Canada CPI and the Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting.

The US dollar is steady after Friday’s drop. We have BOC rate decision, Powell testimony and NFP jobs report among the macro highlights for this week.

Looking through the economic calendar reveals a jam-packed list of potential market-moving events for USD/CAD.

USD/JPY and USD/CAD could see noteworthy moves this month if history is any guide - read on to see the full data!

The USD/CAD will be among the busier of major currency pairs in what will likely be relatively quieter week, at least in so far as macro data is concerned. Given the closure of US markets for Presidents' Day and the majority of major data releases already published in preceding weeks, the week ahead will present few noteworthy macroeconomic highlights, aside from a select few.

USD/CAD continues to hold a range inside of a range, but CAD/JPY is bristling at resistance after having set a fresh 16-year high last week.

USD/CAD outlook undermined by rising Fed rate cut expectations. First week of 2024 could be a busy one for USD/CAD, but there are also a few macro highlights still lift for 2023...

While the global supply picture remains murky, the continued growth of US production remains a long-term secular trend, but the potential for disruptions in the Middle East is a short-term risk that is driving prices higher for now.

Traders and economists expect the CPI report to show that consumer prices rose 0.0% m/m (3.1% y/y), with “Core” CPI expected at 0.3% m/m (4.0% y/y).

The USD/CAD is an interesting pair to watch as it tests a major support area ahead of the release of Canadian inflation data and FOMC minutes later.

The US dollar found modest further support on Friday following Thursday’s bullish reversal on the back of a soft 30-year Treasury auction and hawkish comments by Powell. The key question is whether those gains will last and on the evidence of today’s price action, I am not so sure.

USD/CAD has rallied each of the first four days so far this week to trade above 1.3800, essentially the pair’s highest level since last October...

The Canadian dollar has continued to strengthen alongside oil prices in recent days, sending USD/CAD to a near 5-week low, GBP/CAD beneath its 200-day EMA and CAD/JPY to within striking distance of its 2022 high. Today’s Canadian inflation data could prove volatile for USD/CAD ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC meeting.

Technical analysis shows WTI may be getting stretched while USD/CAD could have further to fall...

The USD is on the cusp of flipping to net-long exposure among G10 currencies according to data compiled by IMM (International Monetary Market). And despite the resurgence of US dollar strength, oil continues to perform well and market positioning is looking increasingly bullish for the weeks or even months ahead.