Fed

The biggest economic data release of this week, and arguably the whole month – US CPI – didn’t disappoint in terms of its market impact.

The US dollar is sitting in the middle of its 3-month range with leading indicators pointing toward slightly above expectation reading in this month’s NFP report, with headline job growth in the 200K-250K range.

GBP/USD has bounced off key technical support at its rising trend line and 200-day MA in the mid-1.2500s, hinting at a potential retest of 1.2700 pending Friday’s NFP report...

Gold’s technical outlook remains bullish above previous-resistance-turned-support near $2200 ahead of NFP on Friday

Fed Chairman Powell sounded like someone who was looking for an excuse – any excuse – to cut interest rates in his press conference.

Gold has been falling back in the past week and a half after hitting a record high at $2195. The key question is whether today’s FOMC policy decision will cause it to fall back even further, or will it trigger a fresh wave of buying that could propel the precious metal towards a new all-time high.

FOMC meeting risks are skewed toward a less dovish outcome, with the potential for the median Fed dot for 2024 to rise to 4.9%, or only two interest rate cuts for 2024.

The USD/JPY will face a major test in the week ahead, with both the Bank of Japan and US Federal Reserve set to make monetary policy decisions a day apart. The USD/JPY has managed to recover strongly, rising from around 146.50 to above 149.00 in a few days. The recovery has been driven in part because of a rebound in bond yields a stronger dollar.

AUD/USD hasn’t had much luck dealing with sellers layered above .6530 recently. 13 attempts on the four-hourly chart in less than a week to no avail, leaving it sandwiched in a tight range between minor uptrend support.

The start of a new Fed rate cut cycle doesn’t necessarily lead to the “obvious” bullish reaction in the S&P 500 and DJIA that the “don’t fight the Fed” mantra would have you believe... read on to see the actual data!

Perhaps contrary to popular opinion, the start of a new Fed rate cut cycle has NOT been a consistent bearish catalyst for the US dollar. Read on to for more!

Read on to see how inflation and Fed policy could impact the price of commodities like gold this year!

How interest rate differentials, scarcity, and falling liquidity could work together to boost the US dollar

The recent consolidation in the US Dollar Index and the Fed’s renewed data dependence could lead to a more-volatile-than-usual reaction in the US dollar.

Powell pushes back against market pricing for a March rate hike - what's next for the Fed?

EUR/USD is testing key support near 1.0800 with major crosswinds from month-end flows, the Fed, and NFP this week.

Love it or loathe it, the rally on US indices has been impressive. Traders seem to be focussed on lower yields, slightly reduced bets of multiple Fed cuts and any other morsel of what can be repackaged as ‘good news’. But can it withstand incoming GDP figures, a PCE inflation report and an FOMC meeting without a wobble?