Fed

The GBPUSD has dipped below the crucial 1.29 level ahead of this week's final wave of volatility surrounding US GDP and Core PCE data, and in anticipation of next week’s BOE and Fed monetary policy decisions. Will bearish pressures continue?

USDJPY Forecast: With the market fully pricing in a Fed rate cut starting in September, along with increasing speculations over a BOJ rate hike at the end of July, the USD/JPY is experiencing a sharp decline.

GBP/USD could pull back off 1-year highs at 1.3000 given the 17-year high in speculative long positioning, per the CFTC’s COT report.

GBPUSD Forecast: the GBPUSD’s uptrend is facing challenges this week. The US dollar, driven by political challenges and rate cut expectations, along with upcoming UK economic indicators, might add pressure on the pair. Is there a correction ahead?

Despite rising expectations for a BOJ rate hike, the faster pace of Fed policies is set to drive greater volatility in the USDJPY chart.

Crude Oil Forecast: The transition towards clean energy is driving long-term bearish projections for oil, yet US economic growth and policies still dominate short-term trends

EUR/USD is rallying toward the key 1.0800 level that could set the tone for the rest of the month ahead of the NFP report.

Why might the Fed cut rates in July? Inflation is running below the Fed’s target with timely measures of shelter inflation, jobless claims are ticking up, monetary policy is tight per the Taylor Rule, and the election is looming.

EUR/USD may have seen its bounce off 1.0600 support stall at 1.0740 – see the levels to watch moving forward!

GBP/USD remains in “sell rallies” mode, so bullish readers will want to be nimble against a broader backdrop that favors more downside from here.

The biggest economic data release of this week, and arguably the whole month – US CPI – didn’t disappoint in terms of its market impact.

The US dollar is sitting in the middle of its 3-month range with leading indicators pointing toward slightly above expectation reading in this month’s NFP report, with headline job growth in the 200K-250K range.

GBP/USD has bounced off key technical support at its rising trend line and 200-day MA in the mid-1.2500s, hinting at a potential retest of 1.2700 pending Friday’s NFP report...

Gold’s technical outlook remains bullish above previous-resistance-turned-support near $2200 ahead of NFP on Friday

Fed Chairman Powell sounded like someone who was looking for an excuse – any excuse – to cut interest rates in his press conference.

Gold has been falling back in the past week and a half after hitting a record high at $2195. The key question is whether today’s FOMC policy decision will cause it to fall back even further, or will it trigger a fresh wave of buying that could propel the precious metal towards a new all-time high.

FOMC meeting risks are skewed toward a less dovish outcome, with the potential for the median Fed dot for 2024 to rise to 4.9%, or only two interest rate cuts for 2024.