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NFP Preview: Could a Strong Jobs Report Put a December Fed Pause in Play?

The Fed is likely, but not certain, to cut interest rates by 25bps later this month, and a strong NFP report could reopen the door for close decision.

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Today 03:26 PM
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US Dollar: A Contrarian Perspective on How Trump’s Second Term Could Weaken the USD

How a shift in trade policy, the extension of tax cuts, the appointment of Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary, and potential threats to Federal Reserve independence could pave the way for a weaker greenback under Trump.

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Yesterday 06:57 PM

The Fed, ECB, and More Explained: Central Bank FAQs for Forex Traders

Learn how the Fed, ECB, and BOJ impact forex markets. Get answers to FAQs on interest rates, currency trends, and trading strategies in this must-read guide.

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November 20, 2024 08:12 PM

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Relentless USD rally extends after Powell hints at slower pace of cuts

The USD bullish rally continued to rage after Powell bluntly said that the Fed may not be in a hurry to cut rates, citing a strong labour market and a "remarkably strong" economy.

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Gold Forecast: What Would it Take for the Fed to Pause in December?

Gold’s now testing its 100-day MA and the 14-day RSI is at its lowest level in a year, hinting at a near-term bounce.

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November 14, 2024 06:00 PM
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USDJPY Forecast: Will the CPI Reverse the Dollar Rally?

USDJPY Forecast: The bull run of the US Dollar Index has pushed the USDJPY back in the borders of its primary uptrend, and further volatility risks are on the horizon with the US CPI results.

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November 13, 2024 08:48 AM
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Kashkari drops the 'p' word ahead of US CPI, USD/CHF stands firm

With Kashkari throwing the word ‘pause’ into the mix ahead of a US CPI report, traders should brace themselves for further USD gains should it come in hotter than expected.

GBP/USD in the crossfire of BOE, FOMC

We finally get a bit of a breather from the US election and can shift out attention to today’s BOE and FOMC meetings, making it an ideal time to catch up on GBP/USD.

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GBPUSD Outlook: BOE, Fed, and a Trump Victory

GBPUSD Outlook: Following Trump’s victory, the US Dollar surged, pressuring the British pound toward October lows. The pound’s long-term uptrend above its 15-year consolidation faces a key test on Thursday with BOE and Fed policy decisions.

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November 6, 2024 10:05 AM
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How the US election could impact the Fed

The US dollar and yields have enjoyed a strong rally over the past five weeks, thanks to hotter US data, Fed members pushing back on rate cuts, and Trump leading in many polls. But with the US election on our doorstep and the potential for a delayed result, could this tie the Fed’s hands at this week’s meeting?

Jobs

NFP Preview: How Could the Jobs Report Impact the US Election and the Fed?

Coming in the lead up to a tightly-contested Presidential election, this month’s NFP report could have an outsized impact on sentiment and the US dollar.

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October 31, 2024 01:30 PM
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No Fed Rate Cut in November: Is it on the Table After Strong US Data?

Traders are pricing in roughly a 1-in-10 chance that the Fed leaves interest rates unchanged at its November, but it may take 4 more better-than-expected US economic reports in a row.

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October 17, 2024 03:47 PM
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NFP Preview: Why Any Halfway Decent Jobs Report Could Be Dollar Bullish

The leading indicators point to a potentially better-than-expected reading in this month’s NFP report, with headline job growth potentially coming in somewhere in the 130K-200K range

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October 3, 2024 03:53 PM

EURUSD Forecast: Is This a Double Top?

EURUSD Forecast: With the US dollar stabilizing above the 100-mark for about a month, a double top on the EURUSD at the 1.120 resistance is in question. This comes alongside declining inflation and dovish sentiment in the Eurozone.

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October 2, 2024 09:38 AM
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GBPUSD Forecast: Hawkish Fed Strengthens Resistance Levels

GBPUSD Forecast: The GBPUSD is currently hovering below the key 1.3430 resistance level, with Fed Chair Powell's recent speech introducing a hawkish tone to the rate cut expectations, reinforcing the strength of the DXY and limiting further weakness.

AUD/USD, ASX futures rattled after Fed cut by 50bp, AU jobs up next

Well, that settles that. The Federal Reserve cut their cash rate for 50bp, which is their largest sized cut since the pandemic. And it made for a volatile ride for AUD/USD and ASX 200 futures ahead of today's Australian jobs report.

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September 18, 2024 11:12 PM
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EURUSD, DXY Analysis: Fed Rate Decision vs December 2023 Support

EURUSD, DXY Analysis: With the 25bps rate cut already priced into the market, the DXY is hovering at its December 2023 support. The next move depends on a confirming signal: either a wider rate cut to push it below that support or a rebound that could reverse the market's positive trends.

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September 18, 2024 10:24 AM

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USD/JPY rebounds as traders derisk ahead of FOMC, ASX 200 to gap lower

Traders appeared to be derisking ahead of the FOMC meeting, where money markets are backing a 50bp cut whereas economists still favour a 25bp cut. This saw ASX 200 futures track the Dow Jones lower, and USD/JPY post its best day in 23.

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September 17, 2024 11:35 PM
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FOMC Meeting Preview: How the 25/50 Debate Means the Fed Has Already Failed

In the post-Bernanke “Fed Communication as a Policy Tool” era, this is the most uncertain that traders have ever been heading into a Fed meeting - what does that mean for markets?

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September 17, 2024 04:50 PM

EURUSD Outlook: Headwinds Ahead with Stable Dollar and ECB Decision

EURUSD Outlook: As the market leans toward a 25bp rate cut in the upcoming Fed decision, the US Dollar remains stable against the EURUSD, which is expected to face additional headwinds as the ECB approaches its own rate decision, also signaling a potential 25bp rate cut.

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September 12, 2024 08:21 AM
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US CPI Preview: Fed on the Fence Leaves Volatility Potential

As the last major economic release ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve Monetary Policy meeting, the US CPI report may well decide which path Jerome Powell and Company choose.

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September 10, 2024 02:18 PM

EURUSD, DXY Analysis: Post Non-Farm Payroll Outlook

EURUSD, DXY Analysis: Both the EURUSD and the US Dollar Index (DXY) are hovering around critical levels that could determine whether we see a trend reversal or confirmation. These levels are closely tied to the extremes of December and July 2023, with market participants eagerly awaiting policy decisions to solidify the trends.

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NFP Preview: How Unemployment Could Decide if the Fed Goes 25 or 50

The leading indicators point to an as expected reading in this month’s NFP report, with headline job growth potentially coming in somewhere in the 130K-200K range

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September 5, 2024 03:33 PM