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AUD/USD: Fuel driving US dollar rally may be nearing exhaustion point
Too soon to turn bullish AUD/USD but be ready when the turn eventually comes.
Dow Jones Forecast: DJIA rises after inflation cools
US stocks edge higher after core PCE, and the Fed's preferred inflation gauge cooled in line with forecasts. Core PCE eased to 2.8%, down from 2.9%, although the monthly rate rose to 0.4%, up from 0.2%. Personal spending also slowed to 0.2%, down from 0.7%, in a sign that consumption was slowing. USD/JPY has slumped after the data & after hawkish BoJ chatter.
Dow Jones Forecast: DJIA falls in nervous trade ahead of inflation data
US stocks are heading lower in cautious trade ahead of tomorrow's core PCE data, which could provide further clues over the timing of a Fed rate cut. Fed officials continue to push back on the need for an immediate rate cut. Meanwhile, the US economy shows signs of slowing as US Q4 GDP was downwardly revised to 3.2% annualized from the preliminary reading of 3.3% and down from 4.9% in Q3.
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Nasdaq 100 Forecast :QQQ remains close to its record high with US data in focus
US stocks point to a quiet start as US economic data releases start to ramp up ahead of Thursday's inflation print. Today, US durable goods orders fell -6.1% MoM, more than the -4.5% forecast. The market has barely reacted. US data has broadly been encouraging, highlighting the resilience of the US economy even with interest rates at a 22-year high. Attention now turns to US consumer confidence figures.
Dow Jones Forecast: DJIA hovers around record highs in a quiet start to a busy week
US stocks are trading quietly on Monday, hovering around the record highs reached last week after blowout Nvidia earnings boosted AI optimism & stocks higher. This week, attention is back on the economic calendar with US core PCE, the Fed's preferred gauge for inflation, due on Thursday. The market is pricing in the first Fed rate cut in June.
Nasdaq 100 Forecast :QQQ hovers around record highs in a quiet start
After soaring in the previous session, US stocks are pointing to a quiet open. Stocks surged to record highs yesterday, inspired by AI chip designer Nvidia's results and outlook. Today the US economic calendar is quiet. Some attention could go to Fed governor Christopher Waller's comments after he pushed back on the need for immediate rate cuts. The USD is set to fall this week - the first weekly decline in 2024.
US dollar weakness might be short lived: The Week Ahead
The US dollar shows the potential to retrace some of the week's losses in light of hawkish Fed comments. Although attention now shifts to the US PCE inflation report, Australian CPI and RBNZ interest rate decision and press conference.
S&P500 Forecast: SPX hits a record high after Nvidia earnings
S&P 500 rises to a fresh all time high after blowout Nvidia results. Nvidia posed a 265% rise in revenue and a 769% rise in net earnings sending the share price 13% higher. Note that profits are rising by more than the share price! The market is overlooking US jobless claims which fell to 201k, supporting the Fed's view that it is too early to cut rates.
Nasdaq 100 Forecast: QQQ slips ahead of FOMC minutes, Nvidia earnings
US stocks are heading for a weaker open as investors look cautiously ahead to the release of the minutes to the January FOMC meeting and to Nvidia earnings after the close. Investors will be looking to see whether the minutes push back on rate be expectations and whether Nvidia, the AI chipmaking giant can live up to the hype surrounding its stock and a future with AI.
USD forecast: Positioning hints at headwinds for USD, 2-year yield
Short bets against the US 2-year yield continue to diminish yet remain at a sentiment extreme. And as the yield flatlined above 5% in 2023 despite aggressive short positioning, it suggests its yield may struggle to retake 5% this time around. And that could prove to be a headwind for the USD.
USD/JPY, USD/CNH uptrends under threat as dollar rally splutters
The US dollar rally since the start of the year is showing signs of fatigue, unable to build upon gains last week despite widening yield differential between the United States and other major nations, including in Asia.
NZD, AUD take the lead in quiet trade but USD may not be done yet
NZD/USD and AUD/USD were the strongest pairs on Monday during quiet trade, but the USD shows the potential to bounce before a larger move lower, which could eventually allow AUD/USD to reach for 66c.
Gold didn’t last long below $2000 despite higher US yields and dollar
Higher bond yields, stronger US dollar, no major escalation in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. It’s the kind of backdrop you wouldn’t expect gold to thrive in. But its first probe below $2000 per ounce in 2024 didn’t last long, rebounding strongly to push back into the range it’s been operating in since mid-December.
JPY futures near sentiment extreme, USD set to retrace? COT report
With the USD showing signs of a potential pullbacks and JPY futures nearing a potential sentiment extreme, USD/JPY may well struggle to break and hold above 152. EUR/USD also looks set to bounce despite lower net-long exposure, and gold future may struggle to hold above $2000 given the rise in short and trimming of long bets.
EUR/USD: Dangling precariously as supports give way
There’s now a very real possibility the ECB will cut interest rates earlier and more aggressively than the US Federal Reserve this year, putting EUR/USD under the pump and eyeing more downside.
EUR/USD weekly reversal signals potential directional shift
US economic exceptionalism is back. US bond yields are rising as Fed rate cut bets are slashed. For an economic block with so much pessimism factored into the outlook, it’s a backdrop in which EUR/USD should be getting battered. But it’s not.
Can US inflation data make or break the US dollar? The Week Ahead
Whist the daily charts still appear favourable for another leg higher on the US dollar, the weekly charts and market positioning suggest some dark clouds may lurking above. And incoming CPI or inflation expectations data could make or break the dollar, if they lean enough in either direction.
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US dollar forecast: Seeking breakouts on USD/JPY, USD/CAD
Without top-tier economic data scheduled, I suspect market conditions likely favour technical analysis over the foreseeable future whilst a pullback on USD plays out.
Nasdaq 100 Forecast :QQQ rises after earnings from Meta, AMZN & a strong NFP report
US stocks point to a mixed open, and Nasdaq futures are off session highs after US non-farm payroll data smashed forecasts, with 353k jobs added in January above 180k forecasts. December's numbers were also revised higher to 333k. Meanwhile, upbeat results from Meta and Amazon. Apple is set to fall despite beating profit and revenue forecasts.
S&P500 Forecast: SPX rises after the Fed inspired selloff
US stocks are pointing to a positive open, recovering after a steep selloff yesterday when Fed Chair Powell pushed back on a March rate cut, saying that it was not his base case scenario. US jobless claims and Challenger cuts point to a slight weakening in the labour market ahead if tomorrow's non-farm payroll report. Big tech is in focus with Apple, Amazon and Meta due to report after the close.
EUR/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CAD forecast: A forex major overview
We’re seeing quite a mixture of signals across forex majors, which implies the US dollar could perform well against some currencies but not all. AUD/USD and USD/CAD look vulnerable to USD strengthen, whereas EUR/USD has some key support level propping it up.
S&P500 Forecast :SPX flat ahead of a busy week
US stocks are pointing to a flat open as investors sit on the sidelines ahead of a busy week with US tech stock earnings and the Federal Reserve interest rate decision due on Wednesday. The Fed is expected to leave interest rates on hold in January and the market is looking for clues over when the Fed may start to cut rates. Microsoft and Alphabet report earnings tomorrow after the close.
S&P500 Forecast :SPX struggles after personal spending jumps
US stocks are pointing to a nixed open after US core PCE eased to 2.9% YoY in December, but personal spending jumped 0.7%, supporting the view that the US is heading for a soft landing, but the Fed may not need to cut interest rates soon. Intel is set to fall on the open after disappointing Q1 guidance.