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S&P500 Forecast: SPX rebounds as big tech recovers & inflation is in focus

U.S. stocks point to a higher start as they recover from the weakness over the past few sessions, which saw the S&P 500 fall to a six-month low. An improved market mood and optimism of a soft landing helped lift stocks even as inflation was stickier than expected. Core PCE, the Fed's preferred gauge for inflation, remained at 2.6% YoY but personal spending remained solid at 0.2%,

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Yesterday 02:32 PM
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Nasdaq 100 Forecast: QQQ pares losses after stronger GDP data

U.S. stocks have halted the deep sell-off. Better-than-expected economic growth in the second quarter helped to ease fears that the Fed may need to rush rate cuts to prevent a recession. Personal spending, the key driver for the US economy, was stronger than expected, and PCE cooled. The modest move higher comes after the Nasdaq experienced its worst one-day selloff yesterday since 2022.

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July 25, 2024 02:17 PM
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S&P500 Forecast: SPX falls after Tesla & Alphabet earnings underwhelm

U.S. stocks are to open sharply lower after Tesla and Alphabet's earnings underwhelmed. Tesla's net income almost halved to $1.47bn vs. the $1.9 bn forecast. Alphabet beat on earnings and revenue, but YouTube ad revenue missed forecasts. The selloff in Alphabet highlights how high the bar has been set.

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July 24, 2024 02:43 PM

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GBP/USD, USD/JPY, VIX, gold analysis from the weekly COT report

Large speculators surged into GBP/USD long bets last week, pushing net-long exposure to a record high and at the fastest weekly pace since records began. They also continued to trim net-short exposure to yen futures for a second week, after it nearly reached a record high of its own.

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S&P500 Forecast: SPX falls further from its record high, Netflix gains

U.S. stocks point to a mixed open at the end of a choppy week for the markets. The sell-off in tech stocks and mega-cap growth stocks appears to have steadied after a week, which has seen investors rotate away from the sector. Netflix is set to open higher after beating Q2 earnings and revenue forecasts and impressive subscriber numbers. Q3 guidance disappointed.

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July 19, 2024 02:23 PM
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Nasdaq 100 Forecast: QQQ rises as chip stocks & mega caps recover

U.S. stocks are pointing to a broadly positive start following upbeat forecasts from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, which helped lift chip stocks and mega caps following a sharp sell-off yesterday. Rotation out of tech, concerns over curbs on chips to China, and jitters ahead of earnings hit tech on Wednesday. Today, US jobless claims were higher than forecast, pointing to some softness in the jobs market. Netflix reports after the close.

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July 18, 2024 02:12 PM
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Nasdaq 100 Forecast: QQQ rises despite stronger than expected retail sales

U.S. stocks are set to rise modestly on the open as the Trump trade continues, and investors digest comments from Fed Powell, including the latest US retail sales and earnings. Retail sales ex-autos rose 0.4%, reversing a trend of falling sales. Earnings continue to roll in with BAC and MS beating forecasts.

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July 16, 2024 02:45 PM
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Dow Jones Forecast: DJIA rises with Trump & Fed Powell in focus

U.S. stocks point to a higher start as traders assess the implications of an assassination attempt on former U.S. President Donald Trump and ahead of a speech by Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell later today. Earnings are also in focus with numbers from Goldman Sachs and BalackRock.

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July 15, 2024 02:39 PM
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S&P500 Forecast: SPX rises as banks kick off Q2 earnings season

U.S. stocks point to a modestly stronger start as investors digest hotter-than-expected producer price inflation and the start of earnings season. JP Morgan & Citigroup impressed, while Wells Fargo Group posted disappointing net interest income. PPI was hotter than expected, serving as a reminder of how fragile the inflation outlook is.

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July 12, 2024 03:22 PM
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Nasdaq100 Forecast: QQQ rises as cooling inflation lifts Fed rate cut expectations

U.S. stocks are pointing to a higher start after US inflation data showed consumer prices cooled further in June, easing to 3% YoY from 3.3%. Core inflation also eased by more than expected to 3.3%. The market has ramped up rate cut expectations and is pricing in an 87% chance of a September rate cut. The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 rose to record highs.

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July 11, 2024 02:05 PM
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Dow Jones Forecast: DJIA rises boosted by the Fed's outlook

U.S. stocks are pointing to a higher start, with the S&P500 and NASDAQ 100 at all-time highs as investors await Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell's second testimony this week. Fed Powell said that the economy is no longer overheated, raising expectations for a September rate cut. Megacaps and AI stocks are set to rise further, and banks will be in focus ahead of earnings on Friday.

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July 10, 2024 02:18 PM
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S&P 500 Forecast: SPX rises ahead of Powell's testimony

U.S. stocks point to a higher start as the market looks cautiously ahead to testimony from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. The market will be looking for further cues on when the Fed might start to cut interest rates. His testimony comes after a series of weak data last week and ahead of inflation data on Thursday.

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July 9, 2024 02:18 PM
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S&P 500 Forecast: SPX edges higher ahead of Powell & CPI data later this week

US stocks are pointing to a modestly positive start after strong gains last week; the Nasdaq 100 and S&P500 hover around record highs, boosted by optimism that the Federal Reserve could start to cut interest rates as soon as September. The economic calendar is quiet today, but Federal Reserve Chair Powell testifies before the Senate Banking Committee this week. US CPI data will also be in focus.

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July 8, 2024 02:02 PM
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USD, Nonfarm outlook: A weak payrolls report may not be a slam dunk

If we look at data over the last couple of weeks, it is hard to argue that the US economy is not slowing. And that raised expectations for a weak NFP report with good merit. Still, it should be remembered that NFP change has a tendency to beat expectations, and the data suggests it has a strong directional bias for the USD on the day.

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July 4, 2024 04:23 AM
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Nasdaq 100 Forecast: QQQ falls in cautious trade ahead of Powell

U.S. stocks are pointing to a lower open on Tuesday amid elevated treasury yields and in cautious trade ahead of a speech by Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell later today. The market will be watching for clues over when the Fed may start to cut interest rates, particularly after recent data that has pointed to a softening in the economy and inflation.

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July 2, 2024 02:19 PM
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Dow Jones Forecast: DJIA kicks off Q3 modestly higher

US stocks are set for a modestly higher start as Q43 kicks off. This week, US non-farm payroll data, a speech by Fed Chair Powell, and the release of the FOMC minutes will be in focus and could provide further clues over when the Fed could start cutting rates. The market has raised rate cut expectations after Friday's core PCE data showed inflation cooling to a 3-year low.

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July 1, 2024 02:12 PM
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S&P500 Forecast SPX is flat after a mixed data drop, MU disappoints

U.S. stocks are pointing to a higher start as investors digest the latest jobs and GDP data from the US and disappointing guidance from Micron Technologies. The mood is cautious ahead of tomorrow’s core PCE data tomorrow.

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June 27, 2024 02:36 PM

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S&P 500 Forecast: SPX muted ahead of Friday's inflation data

U.S. stocks point to a mixed open, with the S&P 500 and the Dow edging higher, while the NASDAQ points to a weaker start ahead of key inflation data on Friday. The market is pricing in two rare cuts this year while the Fed projects one. Nvidia is set to open lower, extending its selloff from Friday. The stock briefly overtook Microsoft as the world's most valuable company. The US economic calendar is quiet today.

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June 24, 2024 02:15 PM
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USD/CHF traders are nervous of being ‘caught short’ ahead of SNB

Futures traders may be heavily net-short Swiss Francs, but the rapid rise of the currency this week ahead of the SNB meeting suggests some are wary of being caught short a less-dovish central bank.

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S&P500 Forecast :SPX unchanged after weaker retail sales ,Fed speakers are in focus

US stocks are set for a quiet start after US retail sales were weaker than expected and with Federal Reserve speakers in focus. Retail sales show that consumption is moderating as inflation and interest rates remain high and unemployment rises. Looking ahead, Fed speakers are in focus after recent officials have supported the view that one rate cut this year is appropriate.

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June 18, 2024 02:45 PM
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S&P500 Forecast: SPX muted ahead of Fed speakers & retail sales later in the week

U.S. stocks are heading for a muted start as the dust settles on last week's inflation data and Federal Reserve interest rate decision. There is no high-impacting data today, so attention will be on tomorrow's retail sales data and Fed speakers for more clues about when the Fed could start cutting rates. Last week, the Fed pointed to one rate cut this year. However, the market is still pricing in two rate cuts.

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June 17, 2024 02:20 PM
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Dow Jones Forecast: DJIA falls post-Fed & as PPI falls, jobless claims rise

US stocks are heading for a mixed open as the market continues digesting yesterday's Fed meeting. Policymakers lowered rate cut expectations to just one cut this year and did so after a slight weakening in monthly CPI. Today, data showed PPI fell in May, and jobless claims jumped. Meanwhile, the tech sector, lifted by chip stocks, is benefiting the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 but not the Dow Jones.

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June 13, 2024 02:06 PM
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S&P 500 Forecast: SPX hits an ATH as CPI cools & the Fed comes into focus

S&P 500 rises to a new ATH after inflation cooled by more than expected in May. The data comes ahead to the FOMC rate decision, where the Fed is expected to leave rates unchanged but could downwardly revise the doy plot from 3 rate cuts this year to 2 or even 1 cut. Attention will also be on the updated projections and Fed Chair Powell's press- conference. A cautious tone could see stocks give back some of their gains.

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June 12, 2024 02:19 PM