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US Core PCE Preview: USD/JPY Flirts with 155 Ahead of Key US Inflation Report

Diverging interest rate expectations between the Federal Reserve and the rest of the developed world have been THE biggest story of the year for FX traders (USD/JPY in particular), and Friday’s Core PCE report will be the next major test to determine if that trend will carry over into Q2

Bank notes of different currencies

EUR/USD forecast: Bullish trend intact as key data eyed

The divergence in monetary policy between the Fed and ECB is likely to support the bullish EUR/USD forecast

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March 29, 2023 06:00 PM
Market chart

US Core PCE comes in stronger than expected; US Dollar bid

With the US Core PCE for January hotter than expected, the US Dollar is continuing its recent rise.

February 24, 2023 04:08 PM

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Core PCE unlikely to sway Fed next week

The December Core PCE print was in-line with expectations. Therefore, markets remain comfortable with pricing in the 98% chance of a 25bps rate hike on Wednesday.

January 27, 2023 03:54 PM
multiple currencies

US data dump provides little new info for the Fed

Although Durable Goods was stronger than expected, there is little to take from the other data points, as it was from so long ago.

January 26, 2023 04:48 PM
Market chart

What does it mean for the Fed if Core PCE comes out weaker than expected?

If the print is “as expected”, will this be enough of a drop for the Fed to leave rates unchanged at its February meeting?

January 25, 2023 07:29 PM
Federal Reserve eagle

US Core PCE lower in September; USD continues lower

If Core PCE continues to fall over the coming months, the Fed may end up hiking rates less than it expects, or even cutting rates before the end of next year.

December 1, 2022 05:11 PM
Federal reserve name plaque on building

US Core PCE and ECI as expected. What does it mean for the FOMC next week?

Will the Fed consider an ECI reading of 1.2% to be “uncomfortably higher”? Also, the Fed’s favorite measure of inflation is back up to levels not seen since March.

October 28, 2022 04:11 PM
Federal reserve name plaque on building

US Core PCE and ECI as expected. What does it mean for the FOMC next week?

Will the Fed consider an ECI reading of 1.2% to be “uncomfortably higher”? Also, the Fed’s favorite measure of inflation is back up to levels not seen since March.

October 28, 2022 04:11 PM
Market chart

US Core PCE follows EU CPI higher

Markets are pricing in a 75bps rate hike for both central banks. However, the meetings not until the end of October and there is still a lot of data which can change rate hike expectations

September 30, 2022 04:01 PM
Market chart showing uptrend

ECI and PCE are hot for June. What does it mean for the Fed?

Today’s inflation data was higher than expected and the Fed is walking a thin line between lowering inflation and pushing growth lower.

July 29, 2022 04:43 PM
Market chart

Core PCE not as bad as feared. But how much does it matter?

It probably won’t matter in isolation, as the Fed is now looking at a number of inflation data points to help determine the next direction for inflation in the US.

June 30, 2022 04:33 PM
Federal reserve Eagle

Core PCE: Still the Fed’s favorite measure of inflation?

US Core PCE is due out this week and if it is similar to other recent inflation data, it may be stronger than expected.

June 28, 2022 04:09 PM
Market chart

Core PCE still strong, but weaker than March

Although one reading isn’t considered a trend,it may be suggesting that inflation has plateaued.

May 27, 2022 04:12 PM
Close-up of market chart

Core PCE levels off, but the ECI may have the Fed more concerned

Although the Core PCE may have eased slightly, it is still a cause for concern for the Fed at such an elevated level.

April 29, 2022 03:24 PM
Research

US Core PCE continues to rise; puts more pressure on Fed

As the Fed continues to catch up with the rest of the markets in realizing that inflation is indeed high, it now has another data point to refer to, Core PCE.

March 31, 2022 04:32 PM
Market chart

US Core PCE still hot; Is 50 bps in the cards?

The Fed's favorite measure of inflation (Core PCE) was 5.2% YoY vs and expectation of 5% YoY and 4.9% YoY in December.

February 25, 2022 04:28 PM

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Research

US Core PCE preview: The Fed’s interest rate decision hangs in the balance

Friday’s release is likely to lead to market volatility as market participants adjust to arguably the most important data release ahead of the Fed’s expected liftoff...

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February 23, 2022 06:06 PM
Federal Reserve eagle

Core PCE higher than expected; Fed also paying close attention to ECI

There' s a new sheriff in town that the Fed is focusing on: ECI (Employment Cost Index).

January 28, 2022 05:14 PM
Graph showing a slow uptrend

Core PCE comes in much hotter than the Fed would like!

The Fed's favorite measure of inflation is more than double what they would like!

November 24, 2021 04:52 PM
Bank notes of different currencies

Inflation, Inflation, Inflation

As inflation data continues to remain excessively high in the around the world, central banks are struggling to justify that a majority of the inflation is transitory

October 29, 2021 03:58 PM

Post-Easter US data paints a downbeat outlook for near-term growth

It’s been an exceedingly slow start to the week with most of Europe out of the office for an extended holiday weekend, but trade is […]

FOMC Recap: Doves flying high as Fed drops two dots

As we noted in yesterday’s FOMC Preview report, any Fed fireworks wouldn’t come from the monetary policy decision per se, but rather how today’s meeting […]