Metals

Gold futures traders waded into the metal ahead of the record high set last week. But if we adjust large speculative positioning for open interest, it turns out they reached a record level of bullish exposure five weeks ago.

It seems there is already excitement in the air for a soft CPI report, with EUR/USD rising in today’s Asian session. But if CPI delivers an upside surprise, gold may be the better bet for bears over the near term.

Key risk events this week include Jerome Powell’s testimony to the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday and a CPI report. Should Powell strike a dovish tone and CPI data come in soft, gold, silver and copper could be poised to rally.

Silver broke above $30 to reach a 9-day high today, before gold tried to mimic its move with limited success. And with silver stalling around resistance, I remain suspicious of the move higher on gold.

A multi-timeframe view of gold suggests $2600 could be its next upside target on its way to $3000 (just don't hold your breath). For now, gold and silver could find some support ahead of a key US inflation report and FOMC meeting.

Concerns over China and a hot labour market report in the US caused metals to fall sharply. However, the long-term gold forecast remains positive despite the recent struggles, even if prices were to weaken further in the short-term outlook.

Gold and copper have made mild attempt to recoup last week's losses, which puts us on alert for a potential 'dead cat bounce'. Whilst silver’s rebound has been much more impressive, resistance looms.

This week’s key data is the core PCE price index, due on Friday. Ahead of it, gold may remain in a consolidation phase. Whether we see further short-term weakness following last week’s 3% drop doesn't significantly alter the long-term bullish gold outlook.

Gold just posted its highest monthly close on record, and now trades less than $40 from its record high set in May. With seasonality on its side, I suspect another crack at the record high could be in order. Although it does run the risk of a shakeout around the milestone level.

Gold spent the whole of last week consolidating its sharp 7% rise recorded in October, ending a run of three consecutive weekly gains. The precious metal has struggled to move north of the key $2000 mark, though the metal hasn’t exactly sold off yet.

Welcome to Technical Tuesday, a weekly report where we highlight some of the most interesting markets that will hopefully appease technical analysts and traders alike. In this edition of Technical Tuesday, we will analyse the EUR/USD, Gold and the Dollar Index.

A trade idea to play what what is traditionally strong period for mining stocks.

Despite competing with the strength of the dollar, gold has been trading higher against all other major currencies since its low in August. This could suggest that gold is acting as a safe haven, even if it is not immediately obvious from the XAU/USD chart.

Commodity trading has grown from a physical market to a largely digital one used by traders and investors to hedge positions and speculate on the future.

Our long-term bullish gold outlook received a boost today as fresh doubts were cast over a June Fed rate hike.

Our longer-term gold forecast remains positive, owing to the fact global monetary policy can only start to loosen from here

Gold's struggle are due to profit-taking and rebound in dollar and yields -- factors likely to be temporary. Our longer-term gold outlook remains bullish.