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EUR/USD, AUD/USD traders flipped to net-long exposure: COT report

Large speculators flipped to net-long exposure to EUR/USD futures after a 2-week hiatus, whilst AUD/USD breached the bullish threshold for the first time in three years according to the commitment of traders report (COT).

Gold weekly forecast: Powell pivot to power fresh record highs?

Rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve are back driving the gold price, making it a relatively easy task of knowing what to focus on in the week ahead. The challenge is knowing how they may evolve given multiple rate cuts are already priced over the remainder of the year.

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Gold, Silver Analysis: Precious Metals Poised to Break Out?

This week’s marquee economic release, the US CPI report, looms large as a potential breakout catalyst for Silver and Gold tomorrow.

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Gold and silver primed for upside when the dovish Fed pivot arrives

Gold and silver have been strongly correlated with copper futures over the past fortnight. The negative correlation with the US dollar index, US two-year Treasury yields and Fed funds futures curve has also strengthened. Combined, it suggests base and precious metals are once again being driven by the US interest rate outlook.

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July 10, 2024 07:19 AM
Oil_rig

Crude oil pullback offers long trade setup ahead of Powell

WTI crude oil has been respectful of Fibonacci retracements over the past few weeks. It’s also enjoyed a strong correlation with US S&P 500 futures. With Jerome Powell having little reason to remain hawkish later today, the recent pullback provides a decent entry level for longs looking for a boost to risk appetite.

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July 9, 2024 06:58 AM
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Yen, AUD/USD, Gold, Dow Jones Analysis: COT report

Large speculators were on the cusp of reaching a record level of net-short exposure to yen futures last week, whilst they're also getting close to reaching net-long exposure to AUD/USD futures.

Research

JPY, EUR, CAD, AUD, Crude Oil Analysis: COT report

Large speculators flipped to net-short exposure to EUR/USD ahead of the French election. Open interest on CAD futures fell at its fastest pace in nearly one year as the sentiment extreme we warned of plays out. Net-long exposure to AUD/USD futures fell to a 3-year low, and prospects of net-long exposure are now on the horizon with the potential for an RBA hike.

trading floor

Silver’s bullish break under threat with aggressive sellers parked above

It could be an important day for silver, threatening to break the uptrend that kicked off the bullish run back in February. Given the importance of this level, it comes across as an ideal level to build a trade around, regardless of how the price action evolves from here.

gold_02

Gold consolidating bullish break, tailwinds to strengthen next week?

Gold has been on a nice run recently, breaking out of the pennant it had been coiling in before doing away with the downtrend dating back to the highs set in May. Considering the drift higher in US bond yields, along with a stronger US dollar, the move has been doubly impressive.

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June 21, 2024 07:25 AM
commodities trading

Silver leads the breakout for gold, but resistance looms

Silver broke above $30 to reach a 9-day high today, before gold tried to mimic its move with limited success. And with silver stalling around resistance, I remain suspicious of the move higher on gold.

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June 20, 2024 07:05 AM
Molten metal

Hang Seng, copper rout reverses course, turning point in the making?

Hang Seng's strong correlation with COMEX copper and SGX iron ore futures over the past month suggests many traders are using it as a mechanism to speculate on the outlook for Chinese industrial activity, especially the housing market.

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June 19, 2024 06:27 AM
gold_03

Gold dancing to its own tune, placing emphasis on price for direction

Gold has been dancing to its own tune recently. The strong, positive correlation with other metals prices has weakened over the past month. So too its relationship with the US dollar and real US bond yields, its traditional drivers – it’s basically nonexistent. The lack of key drivers puts more emphasis on the price action for directional clues.

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June 19, 2024 03:17 AM
Crude_oil_USD

Convergence of key levels provides major test for crude oil bulls

Tuesday looms as a great day to wait and observe the price action in WTI crude following another powerful surge, leaving the benchmark at a key level it struggled to overcome in the past. Its performance may provide a strong signal on whether to get onboard the bullish move or get setup for shorts on a possible swing top.

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June 17, 2024 11:52 PM
Molten metal

Iron ore, copper crumble as China’s property downturn worsens

Given significant uncertainty towards the demand outlook, it may be preferable to let the price action tell us what to do rather than pre-empt on fundamental grounds.

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June 17, 2024 07:05 AM

USD, EUR/USD, USD/CAD, Crude Oil, Dow Jones Analysis: COT report

Bears were busy last week as they piled into shorts against EUR/USD and the Dow Jones, and also reached a record level of net-short exposure to the Canadian dollar. And this was beneficial for USD bulls.

Energy

Crude oil surge lacks conviction, seeking reversal signal to initiate shorts

Crude oil surges 8% in four sessions. But volumes were nowhere near as bullish as the price action would suggest. Given its struggles above these levels, waiting for a topping pattern to go short is favoured.

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June 11, 2024 12:40 AM
Research

USD, GBP/USD, Gold, Crude Oil Analysis: COT report

Traders may have reduced net-long exposure to USD futures in aggregate, but they remain net-long and a bullish reversal week formed on the USD index. We also take a look at GBP/USD, gold, WTI crude oil and US indices positioning (S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100).

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Quarry and various stones

Iron ore may have bottomed as trading volumes surge

Iron ore futures are climbing off the canvas after a rough trot, surging higher on Thursday on the back of large gains in Chinese steel markets. But the reason behind the sudden buying burst makes you question whether the move will last, especially with inventories incredibly bloated relative to seasonal norms.

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June 7, 2024 12:03 AM
Oil extraction

Crude oil reverses hard on improved demand outlook, delivering bullish technical signal

With a solid US ISM services PMI print and rate cut from the Bank of Canada (BoC) helping to fuel the soft-landing narrative, the rout in WTI crude oil reversed on Wednesday, delivering a bullish technical pattern that points to the potential of further gains ahead.

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June 5, 2024 11:43 PM
Oil rig on an grey day

Demand to drive WTI crude moves with supply-side now accounted for

Last week’s candle on the WTI crude chart provided an obvious signal on directional risks that came to the fore on Monday, combining with weak economic data out of the United States and belated surprise that OPEC+ will boost production levels later this year to send the price hurtling to lows not seen since February.

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June 4, 2024 07:35 AM
Energy

WTI crude softens post OPEC+, back in the sweet spot for bulls

An extension of deep and prolonged production cuts from OPEC has failed to ignite a rally in crude oil futures with prices sinking for a fourth consecutive session. However, with WTI returning to what’s been a reliable zone for bulls in the first five months of the year, these levels may prove tempting for those looking for a bounce given favorable risk-reward.

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June 3, 2024 01:31 AM
Quarry and various stones

Iron ore keeps finding buyers despite ballooning Chinese port inventories

Despite bourgeoning Chinese port inventories, widespread loss making at steel mills and no guarantee that measures to stablise China’s property market will drive increased construction activity, there’s seemingly no shortage of willing buyers of iron ore out there right now.

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May 30, 2024 03:31 AM

Significant trading volumes on the VIX hints at cycle low: COT report

When open interest on the VIX rises at its second largest weekly pace on record, it’s best to take notice. Especially when it reached a 5-year low before snapping a 4-week losing streak. We also take a look at positioning on the USD index, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, NZD/USD, gold and WTI crude oil.