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Research

Hang Seng leads the way, ASX and China A50 set to follow?

The Hang Seng enjoyed its best day in three months. And with key support levels for the China A50 and ASX 200 holding, perhaps they can try to close the gap this week.

Forex trading

158 continues to defy USD/JPY bulls, AUD/USD rebounds in style

Weak US retail sales alongside a relatively hawkish RBA statement gave AUD/USD a decent lift from range lows and further strengthened a case for a top to form on USD/JPY.

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June 19, 2024 12:35 AM
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USD/JPY hints at another false break, AUD/USD looks set to bounce

The US dollar index formed a small bearish inside day after once again failing to hold onto gains above 105.20 for the second day in a row. This could allow for some mean reversion for soe of its FX peers, and for today we have a potential AUD/USD long and USD/JPY short in focus.

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AUD/USD looks set to pop higher, Nikkei and Nasdaq diverge

Forex markets mostly retraced against Wednesday's CPI and FOMC moves. And that may have set AUD/USD up nicely for a cheeky long into the weekend. The Nikkei however is down for a third day after failing below key resistance levels.

Forex trading

USD/JPY rattled within range post Fed, AUD/USD rallies with Wall Street

We expected a particularly volatile session on Wednesday, and it did not disappoint. Although not all moves were clear cut. New highs for Wall Street and a lower USD helped AUD/USD surge. Yet like USD/JPY, resistance looms.

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June 12, 2024 11:39 PM
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USD/JPY, Nikkei pause at resistance as US CPI, FOMC looms: Asian Open

The next 24 hours will be the eight time in 10 years that a US CPI report lands on the same day as an FOMC meeting, and it has traders on tenterhooks. Today we look at USD/JPY, Nikkei 225 and the ASX 200.

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AUD/USD climbs sheepishly from its lows, bear flag on ASX 200

Quiet trade (outside of euro pairs) allowed AUD/USD to drift higher despite the stronger USD. But with US CPI and FOMC looming, I doubt this is the ‘real move’ and further downside beckons.

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June 10, 2024 11:40 PM
Research

ASX 200 looks set to benefit from Wall Street’s record highs: Asian Open

Soft employment data saw Wall Street march to a record high on bets of a soft NFP report, and that should filter through to gains for the ASX 200 today.

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June 6, 2024 12:02 AM

AUD/USD, AUD/NZD: EM, commodities, soft data drag on AUD into GDP, ISM

Commodities continued to feel the pressure of growth concerns, which weighed broadly on the Australian dollar. AUD/NZD managed to close beneath its 200-day and 200-week average on the same day and looks like it wants to text 1.07, although AUD/USD looks like it could muster a small bounce from current support levels.

Research

AUD/USD rises despite risk-off tone, USD, yields slammed post ISM

The USD and yields were knocked swiftly lower on Monday as evidence of an economic slowdown in the US continued to build, helping AUD/USD to head for 76c despite the risk-off tone to the session.

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June 3, 2024 10:51 PM

ASX 200, Nikkei 225 futures diverge from Wall Street: Asian Open

Downwardly revised GDP for the US in Q1 weighed on Wall Street indices ahead of a key inflation report, yet the ASX and Nikkei managed to bounce form their lows. We look at where we think they might head next.

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USD, Wall Street, gold: Risk seems to be falling apart at the seams

I suspect we're seeing the early moves of a pullback of appetite for risk in general, which saw traders push Wall Street indices and gold lower on Wednesday thanks to weak treasury demand. And it seems to be paving the way for the next leg higher for the USD.

Research

USD/JPY breaks its latest glass ceiling, crude oil surges ahead of OPEC+

USD/JPY closed above 157 for the first time since the MOF last intervened, which brings 158 into focus for bulls. Crude oil also rose over 3% on Tuesday from arguably oversold levels.

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May 29, 2024 12:00 AM
Research

AUD/USD, ASX 200 drift higher ahead of AU retail sales: Asian Open

Volatility levels were lower, as one would expect with the UK and US on a public holiday Monday. And that allowed AUD/USD to drift higher alongside the ASX 200 futures market, even if I do not fully trust the moves.

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May 28, 2024 12:05 AM
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USD thrives, AUD/USD dives, flash PMIs up next: Asian Open

USD rallied against all FX majors except the pound on Wednesday following thanks to not-so-dovish FOMC minutes. AUD/USD now finds itself struggling to hold 66c.

Research

AUD/NZD hints at swing low before RBNZ, ASX seeks breakout: Asian Open

AUD/NZD looks set to capitalise on its rise from Friday's, which could be helped by even a slightly dovish RBNZ meeting. SPI 200 futures were higher overnight to suggest the ASX 200 could break to the upside from its daily compression pattern.

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May 21, 2024 11:38 PM
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Gold hesitates at its ATH, USD drifting higher towards 105: Asian Open

Gold may have printed a record high on Monday, but with a gold basket hovering below resistance and the USD drifting higher, perhaps gold’s rally may at least pause for breath - if not retrace lower.

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May 20, 2024 11:35 PM

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Research

AUD/USD, ASX 200 eye a solid close for the week: Asian Open

AUD/USD and the ASX 200 have flourished this week thanks to renewed bets of Fed cuts, even though softer employment and wages data for Australia rekindled hopes of a lower RBA cash rate.

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May 16, 2024 11:20 PM
Research

AUD/USD breaks out, USD/JPY rolls over amidst worst day of 2024 for USD

The US dollar suffered its worst day of the year and Fed fund futures now imply with near certainty that the Fed will cut by September. And that saw AUD/USD breakout in style and USD/JPY roll over, breaking below two handles on Wednesday.

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USD falters ahead of US CPI, ASX set to track Wall Street higher? Asian Open

The USD was weaker despite higher producer prices, as traders placed greater emphasis on last month's figures being revised lower. And that now sees a 51% chance of a September Fed cut, according to Fed Fund futures.

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May 15, 2024 12:11 AM
Research

US dollar stabilises ahead of Powell, PPI, USD/JPY eyes 157: Asian Open

The US dollar has regained its footing heading into a Powell speech and US PPI report, whilst USD/JPY looks set to break resistance and head for 157.

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May 13, 2024 11:40 PM
Research

EUR/USD, AUD/USD, gold look set to take advantage of US dollar weakness

The US dollar snapped its 3-day winning streak and formed a bearish outside day, helping gold reach our upside target. EUR/USD and AUD/USD are now eyeing a move towards key resistance levels.

Yen, Euros and dollar currency bills and notes

USD ‘rebound’ lacks the enthusiasm of last week’s selloff: Asian Open

The US dollar may have risen for a third day, yet bulls lack the conviction that bears displayed last week. And that suggests this bounce could be corrective.

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May 8, 2024 11:28 PM