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USD/JPY forecast: What sparks fresh highs when conditions are already exceptionally good?
USD/JPY remains supported on dips but where does the next leg higher come from? The US rate outlook has adjusted substantially, pushing yields rapidly higher. With risk appetite nearing euphoric levels, it begs the question: will conditions get any better for bulls than now?
AUD/USD: Fuel driving US dollar rally may be nearing exhaustion point
Too soon to turn bullish AUD/USD but be ready when the turn eventually comes.
USD/JPY, AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY: Hot inflation may not be enough for US dollar bulls
Unless we see a big upside surprise in Thursday's PCE inflation report it may be difficult for US bond yields to continue pushing higher, limiting the fuel that helped propel the US dollar higher over the past two months.
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USD/JPY, Nikkei 225: BOJ negative rate watch shouldn’t rank highly for traders
Focusing on whether the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will scrap negative interest rates should be low on the list of priorities for USD/JPY traders to consider right now. It’s not as important as it’s portrayed to be, creating plenty of noise for an event that could pass without generating significant market volatility.
AUD/USD: Looking to sell rallies on expected inflation acceleration
Australian CPI is expected to accelerate in January, fitting with numerous other inflation readings around the developed world. While that sounds like a scenario that could benefit the AUD/USD on reduced RBA rate cut bets, don’t be surprised if an initial bounce is faded quickly on this occasion.
USD/JPY outlook hinges on continued US interest rate recalibration
The Japanese yen continues to dance to the tune of US interest rate expectations and broader risk sentiment, meaning events that may influence either of those areas should be the focus for USD/JPY traders this week.
NZD/USD: Respect the range until the Kiwi doesn’t
Some FX pairs like to gravitate towards big figures but not the NZD/USD. It’s clearly a fan of doing things in half big figure increment, proving plenty of opportunities to build trades around.
USD/JPY, USD/CNH uptrends under threat as dollar rally splutters
The US dollar rally since the start of the year is showing signs of fatigue, unable to build upon gains last week despite widening yield differential between the United States and other major nations, including in Asia.
AUD looks constructive against EUR, GBP following latest reversal
Attempts to ram EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD into higher trading ranges failed last week, suggesting the Aussie dollar may be starting to rediscover its mojo against some major European crosses.
China market performance post Lunar New Year key for AUD/USD outlook
With the US dollar unable to find traction despite shorter-dated US yields rising to the highest level since mid-December, there are grounds to suggest AUD/USD may be able to break stubborn resistance located above .6530 in the days ahead.
USD/JPY reclaims 150 as US yields push higher into producer price inflation report
Look no further than relative central bank interest rate expectations if you’re wondering what’s driving USD/JPY right now. The pair is moving in lockstep with US two-year Treasury note yields, running with a positive correlation of 0.96 on the daily over the past month.
AUD/USD, ASX 200 rapid rebound gathers pace despite warning from rates markets
Despite lacklustre corporate earnings and rebound in US bond yields, the spectacular rally in AUD/USD and Australia’s ASX 200 only gathered pace in the second half of Thursday’s trading session, leaving both markets eyeing off potential topside breaks.
Gold, crude oil looking heavy despite reversal in bond yields, US dollar
Gold and crude oil are looking heavy despite a large reversal in US bond yields from the highs struck on Tuesday, unable to find any meaningful traction despite the improvement in risk appetite and softer US dollar.
AUD/USD, ASX 200: Employment slowdown a seasonal swoon or start of something sinister?
Australia’s labour market is undeniably slowing, bringing the prospect of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) leapfrogging the US Federal Reserve when it comes to which central bank will cut interest rates first.
EUR/USD: Dangling precariously as supports give way
There’s now a very real possibility the ECB will cut interest rates earlier and more aggressively than the US Federal Reserve this year, putting EUR/USD under the pump and eyeing more downside.
GBP/USD outlook boosted by UK wages data as focus turns to inflation
GBP supported as UK wages print 5.8% vs. 5.6% expected, but the GBP/USD outlook will now be influenced by upcoming inflation reports from both US, later today, and UK on Wednesday. US CPI is expected to print 2.9% vs. 3.4% previously.
NZD/USD: What one hawkish forecaster giveth, 38 dovish forecasters taketh away
Having surged Friday on the back of a forecast from ANZ looking for an additional two hikes from the RBNZ, the NZD/USD has now given back those gains back following the latest RBNZ inflation expectation survey. What one hawkish forecaster giveth, 38 dovish forecasters have taketh away.
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AUD/USD bulls battling against stubborn sellers into US CPI
AUD/USD hasn’t had much luck dealing with sellers layered above .6530 recently. 13 attempts on the four-hourly chart in less than a week to no avail, leaving it sandwiched in a tight range between minor uptrend support.
GBP/JPY: Eying bullish break to multi-year highs ahead of key economic reports
GBP/JPY is on the cusp of breaking to fresh multi-year highs ahead of key inflation and employment data from the United Kingdom and Japan, making this a pair to keep on the radar over the next 48 hours.
EUR/USD weekly reversal signals potential directional shift
US economic exceptionalism is back. US bond yields are rising as Fed rate cut bets are slashed. For an economic block with so much pessimism factored into the outlook, it’s a backdrop in which EUR/USD should be getting battered. But it’s not.
EUR/USD outlook: Forex Friday – February 9, 2024
Welcome to another edition of Forex Friday. In this week’s report, we will discuss the US dollar, upcoming data releases from the US next week, and why we think the EUR/USD is heading lower. In short, a sluggish Eurozone economy is holding back the euro, while hawkish Fed keeps US dollar underpinned ahead of CPI and retail sales and other data highlights next week.
Gold outlook: Home on the range with significant risk events ahead
Gold held up well last week despite rising US yields, assisted in part by continued geopolitical tension in the Middle East. But in week with key inflation reports in the United States and United Kingdom, there are plenty of catalysts looming on the horizon that could shake gold from its slumber.
Dollar and EUR/USD analysis – February 7, 2024
Dollar weakness is lacking fundamental justification, with the Dollar Index looking to bounce back as it tests key support, while EUR/USD is back to probe broken support at 1.0780, which could turn into resistance.