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AUD/USD, ASX 200: Jobs report has little RBA implications, back to watching China

Australians are none the wiser as to what’s happening in the domestic labour market with another volatile jobs report creating more questions than answers. AUD/USD is largely unmoved, leaving offshore factors to remain in the driving seat.

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April 18, 2024 03:40 AM
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USD/JPY, Nikkei 225: Even the strongest market trends are under threat

USD/JPY upside looks limited in the near-term, hindered by narrowing interest rate differentials and perceived increased risk of Bank of Japan intervention. The stronger yen may add to growing downside momentum in the Nikkei 225, putting two of the strongest market trends in 2024 under threat.

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April 18, 2024 12:48 AM
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NZD/USD pops as RBNZ rate cuts bets delivered sticky reality check

New Zealand inflationary pressures continued to ease in the March quarter, although domestic prices remained uncomfortably sticky, likely keeping the prospect of rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand a distant prospect.

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April 17, 2024 12:23 AM

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Uptrend

NZD/USD: Inflation the only barrier between the RBNZ and rate cuts

Inflation remains key sticking point preventing interest rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, ensuring Wednesday’s first quarter consumer price inflation report will be closely watched by financial markets, especially should it print on the softer side of expectations.

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April 16, 2024 07:11 AM
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AUD/USD bearish trend may be disrupted by China’s market open

Contrary to what you may expect, movements in AUD/USD on Tuesday may be dictated by the performance of Chinese financial markets rather than the latest batch of Chinese economic data including Q1 GDP.

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April 16, 2024 01:44 AM
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USD/JPY forecast: New threat emerges as biggest risk to the rally

Sitting at 34-year highs and with market positioning nearing extreme levels, further USD/JPY upside is likely predicted on two factors this week: ongoing US economic exceptionalism and no dramatic escalation in Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions.

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April 15, 2024 04:08 AM
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EUR/USD forecast: Divergent interest rate outlook, geopolitics deliver potent bearish mix

With most major events scheduled outside the continent, EUR/USD direction looks set to be dictated by external influences next week. Preference is to sell rallies given the technical breakdown on Friday.

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April 13, 2024 09:00 PM
japan_03

USD/JPY upside looks compelling if not for the BOJ intervention threat

Whether you look at fundamentals or technicals, the case for USD/JPY is compelling. But the threat of BOJ intervention has not gone away, making for a tricky environment for traders to navigate. However, the volatility it generates creates multiple trade setups depending on your preferred timeframe.

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April 11, 2024 01:36 AM
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NZD/USD, NZD/JPY: RBNZ not wilting on inflation focus despite double dip recession

The Kiwi dollar is pushing higher, potentially reflecting no escalation in dovish rhetoric from the RBNZ despite New Zealand sitting in a double-dip recession. It has an inflation mandate and inflation remains too high to justify lowering rates yet.

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April 10, 2024 04:19 AM
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USD/JPY, AUD/USD: Bonds just delivered a message to traders about the US inflation report

Bond markets make the financial markets go round, so when they provide a strong signal on how Wednesday’s US consumer price inflation report may be interpreted, every trader should sit up and take notice.

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April 10, 2024 02:09 AM

NZD/USD, NZD/JPY RBNZ preview: A little central bank that packs an almighty market punch

While it may be one of the smallest G10 FX central banks, what the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) lacks in size it more than makes up for in terms of market punch, often sparking major moves in the New Zealand dollar under the leadership of Governor Adrian ‘Shock and’ Orr. Wednesday's interest rate decision may be no exception.

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April 9, 2024 02:41 AM
japan_02

USD/JPY forecast: BOJ intervention risk, geopolitics cap upside despite US inflation threat

USD/JPY sits in a narrow trading range, sandwiched by bullish fundamentals and threat of intervention from the Bank of Japan to support the yen. The latter has reduced the odds of near-term upside for USD/JPY despite the release of important inflation updates in the United States this week.

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April 5, 2024 11:21 PM
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USD/JPY, Gold outlook: The payrolls figure in the NFP report is not as important as you think

Forget focusing on the payrolls figure in the US jobs report. It’s not as important as it’s made out to be. Traders would be better off looking at unemployment and average hourly earnings data if they want to know how markets are likely to react.

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April 5, 2024 02:15 AM
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USD/JPY: Selling rallies far easier than buying dips given the growing threat of BOJ intervention

With the threat of BOJ intervention elevated and seemingly increasing, buying USD/JPY right now screens as high risk and low reward. Selling rallies ahead of 152 looks a far stronger trade setup, especially when you consider how significant the US rates repricing has already been this year.

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April 4, 2024 01:03 AM
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Booming commodities, China turnaround a risk for bloated bearish AUD/USD bets

With ample good news priced into the US dollar outlook and a big reversal in the AUD/USD on Tuesday, there are signs the torrent of bearish sentiment may be slowly turning around.

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April 3, 2024 07:03 AM
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US dollar rally hits headwinds, silver squeeze sparks potential bullish break

After the rapid repricing of Fed rate cut expectations, US economic exceptionalism is now arguably already priced into the US dollar, leaving little room for downside disappointment in upcoming US economic data.

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April 3, 2024 03:35 AM
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EUR, GBP, AUD wilting as fundamentals and technicals fuel US dollar upside

With EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD breaking uptrends established when the Fed pivoted away from rate hikes, we look at the levels to watch ahead of key US non-farm payrolls and ISM services PMI releases later this week.

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April 2, 2024 02:26 AM

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aus_03

AUD/USD forecast: US economic exceptionalism required to cement bearish break

AUD/USD remains a sell-on-rallies prospect in a week where interpretation of Fedspeak and US labour market data will dominate. It will be imperative for the US data to portray a message of continued economic strength to see meaningful downside materialise.

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March 30, 2024 04:00 AM
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USD/JPY forecast: Stalemate looms on BOJ intervention threat, range trading favoured

The threat of intervention from the BOJ has increased, likely limiting upside for USD/JPY in the near to medium-term. But extremely wide interest rate differentials and buoyant markets suggest it shouldn’t be significantly lower. It points to a stalemate for yen bulls and bears but opens the door for traders to play existing ranges.

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March 27, 2024 11:52 PM
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USD/CNH looks eerily similar to USD/JPY right now. Multi-year highs incoming?

There’s not much difference between the USD/CNH and USD/JPY on the weekly charts, other than the former appears to be lagging the latter right now. With the yen falling to fresh multi-year lows even with the threat of intervention from the BOJ, will the yuan be next?

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March 27, 2024 05:44 AM
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AUD/USD bears eyeing downside after Australia’s inflation undershoot

Australia’s inflation report undershot expectations in February, although there’s still evidence of stickiness in underlying price measures. Markets reacted by bidding Australian government bonds which have pressured AUD/USD, seeing it test uptrend support. A break could see the Aussie revisit its 2024 lows.

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March 27, 2024 01:55 AM
Research

USD/JPY analysis: Gearing up for a breakout?

Watch out for Japanese intervention, Tokyo CPI and US core PCE inflation data this week, as the dollar rebounds after a weaker start. USD/JPY technical analysis point to a bullish breakout

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March 26, 2024 03:30 PM
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Explainer: the PBOC USD/CNY fix and how it impacts FX markets

With the influence of the Chinese yuan stet to increase further, this primer looks at the PBOC's USD/CNY daily ‘fix’, an event every trader should become familiar with given its importance to currency markets.

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March 26, 2024 04:11 AM