Precious metals

In today's gold forecast, we're witnessing a small rebound not only in gold prices but also across various asset classes, including the major European stock averages while yesterday saw crude oil recovery strongly to close around 1% higher.

Later in the week, we will have the release of global PMIs, US GDP and the Fed’s favourite inflation measure – core PCE price index – all of which having the potential to impact the short-term gold forecast.

Gold's failure to hold above the previous record highs has raised some concern that the metal may have hit a peak. However, I am doubtful that is the case and expect the precious metal to bounce back, potentially reaching a new record soon. So, my gold forecast remains bullish as before despite the metal extending lower at the start of this week.

Our gold outlook remains positive. The metal’s performance has been bolstered by a weaker dollar and reduced bond yields. Its strong gains in 2024 have reinforced its status as a reliable asset for wealth preservation amidst rising prices.

Gold turned positive on the session after a quiet start, testing short-term resistance around $2420 at the time of writing.

Rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve are back driving the gold price, making it a relatively easy task of knowing what to focus on in the week ahead. The challenge is knowing how they may evolve given multiple rate cuts are already priced over the remainder of the year.

This week, it is all about US inflation, which puts the dollar and dollar-denominated assets like gold and silver in sharp focus. Despite their weaker start to the week, gold and silver may have long ways to go on the upside, I reckon. Our gold and silver forecast both remain positive.

Today’s flattish performance of gold mirrors that of last month when gold traded mixed but managed to end as flat as a pancake by the close of play on Friday. The Dollar Index posted a slight monthly gain, indicating that gold investors largely ignored the dollar's strength. Throughout June, gold traded within a narrow range, peaking just above $2387 and bottoming just below $2287.

A multi-timeframe view of gold suggests $2600 could be its next upside target on its way to $3000 (just don't hold your breath). For now, gold and silver could find some support ahead of a key US inflation report and FOMC meeting.

Concerns over China and a hot labour market report in the US caused metals to fall sharply. However, the long-term gold forecast remains positive despite the recent struggles, even if prices were to weaken further in the short-term outlook.

Investors have so far resisted the temptations of picking up silver’s dip back below the $30 handle, following the metal’s big breakout in the last couple of months. However, the long-term silver outlook remains bullish, and I am expecting the short-term selling pressure to ease soon.

Gold and copper have made mild attempt to recoup last week's losses, which puts us on alert for a potential 'dead cat bounce'. Whilst silver’s rebound has been much more impressive, resistance looms.

More evidence is needed to confirm gold has peaked, for the latest pullback could just be driven by short-term profit-taking. My gold outlook remains bullish and expect an eventual rise to $2500.

Our gold and silver forecast remains positive and reckon new records could be on the way for the former and fresh 2024 gains for the latter, following last week's big silver rally. Precious metals have found additional support from a weaker US dollar.

Having taken out its 2021 high on Friday, silver has extended the bullish break on Monday, powering its way above $32 per ounce on the back of big gains in Chinese commodity futures. Given the speed of the rally, silver is fast approaching $35, a level it struggled to overcome in the early 2010s.

Our silver analysis suggests that the precious metal could potentially rise far beyond the $30 level, if the recent gains by gold and copper are anything to go by and in light of the big technical breakout from a multi-year consolidation pattern.

Following the release of more disappointing US data, silver now looks poised to hit that key $30 level and potentially rise far beyond that level, if the recent gains by gold and copper are anything to go by.