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ASX 200, SGX iron ore: Bullish breakouts on the menu, hawkish RBA a risk

Tuesday looms as a potential make-or-break session for Australia’s ASX 200 with futures sitting at a key technical level on the charts ahead of the RBA interest rate decision. One saving grace may be the continued rebound in iron ore futures in Singapore.

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Nasdaq 100, ASX 200 weekly forecast: Record highs right there but will traders boost bullish bets?

Two very different indices, two similar trading setups. Will traders be willing to continue chasing record highs next week? The unconvincing price action to end the week warns of downside risks.

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March 23, 2024 08:56 AM
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AUD/USD, ASX 200 rapid rebound gathers pace despite warning from rates markets

Despite lacklustre corporate earnings and rebound in US bond yields, the spectacular rally in AUD/USD and Australia’s ASX 200 only gathered pace in the second half of Thursday’s trading session, leaving both markets eyeing off potential topside breaks.

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February 16, 2024 10:33 AM

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AUD/USD, ASX 200: Employment slowdown a seasonal swoon or start of something sinister?

Australia’s labour market is undeniably slowing, bringing the prospect of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) leapfrogging the US Federal Reserve when it comes to which central bank will cut interest rates first.

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February 15, 2024 12:42 PM
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AUD/USD, ASX 200 forward testing: Australian employment report

I’m particularly keen to see if the significant loss of full-time jobs is seen for a second consecutive month in tomorrow's Australian employment report. So today we look at how the ASX 200 and AUD/USD have performed around this key economic data release.

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February 14, 2024 04:39 PM
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Australia’s ASX 200 vulnerable on shakeout of soft-landing bets

Having been a major benefactor from the soft-landing narrative, the combination of higher global interest rates and stretched valuations has Australia’s ASX 200 index under pressure.

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February 14, 2024 01:44 PM
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US bond yields threatening to break higher in blow to soft landing beneficiaries

US two-year Treasury yields are at risk of breaking back into the higher range they traded in prior to the Federal Reserve’s policy pivot last year, creating opportunities in markets sensitive to shifts in US rate expectations such as Australia’s ASX 200, USD/JPY and gold.

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February 12, 2024 11:39 AM
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AUD/USD, ASX 200 rebound on China market surge, not RBA

The RBA continues to see the risk that rates may increase again despite delivering updated forecasts showing faster progress in bringing inflation back to within its target band. For AUD/USD traders, there was more interest in the rally in Chinese stocks and currency than what the bank had to say.

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February 6, 2024 05:14 PM
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AUD/USD trading soggy as markets ramp up June RBA rate cut bets

Australian overnight index swaps (OIS) markets are fully priced for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to cut its overnight cash rate by 25 basis points in June to 4.1%, adding pressure on AUD/USD following the release of a softer-than-expected Australian consumer price inflation (CPI) report on Wednesday.

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February 1, 2024 10:35 AM
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AUD/USD, ASX 200 bulls unfazed by retail sales slump

AUD/USD and the ASX 200 have ignored a larger-than-expected slump in Australian retail sales in December, adding to earlier gains in the wake of the release.

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January 30, 2024 12:51 PM
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ASX 200 priced for perfection nearing tricky technical test

Australia’s ASX 200 is rallying for a fourth session on the back of big gains in banks, healthcare and record highs on Wall Street, seeing it approach what some may declare to be a “death zone” for bulls based on price action of recent years.

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January 23, 2024 12:22 PM
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ASX 200, AUD/JPY bouncing back with improved risk appetite

With risk appetite back in full swing and market indicators on US recession risk providing a green light for the soft landing narrative, cyclicals such as Australia’s ASX 200 and AUD/JPY recovered last week, returning to the uptrend they’ve been in since the risk rival revival took hold in late October.

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January 22, 2024 11:44 AM
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ASX 200, AUD/JPY: Looking vulnerable to downside as risk appetite wanes

With markets starting to question how many rate cuts we’ll see from major central banks this year, sentiment towards China’s economic outlook deteriorating rapidly and riskier asset classes coming under pressures, Thursday shapes up as an important session for Australia’s ASX 200 and the AUD/JPY .

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January 18, 2024 10:36 AM
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ASX 200 set for highest close since February, eyes 2023 peak

Australia’s ASX 200 is on track to close at levels not seen since February. Entering what’s traditionally been a strong period over the past two decades, the combination of seasonality and bullish technicals may see the index retest the highs hit in February.

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December 19, 2023 01:00 PM
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ASX 200, Crude Oil: Cyclicals perking up after the Fed’s early dovish pivot

This preemptive dovish signal arrived far sooner than many market participants expected, reducing the risk the global economy may experience a hard economic landing next year. For cyclicals such as the ASX 200 and crude oil, this is good news.

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December 14, 2023 01:31 PM
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AUD/USD, ASX 200: Three-peat of hawkish disappointment under the RBA’s new leadership

The question now for AUD/USD and ASX 200 is whether the tone truly reflects what the RBA is thinking, or will we see a repeat of recent months where subsequent commentary has been far more hawkish in nature?

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December 5, 2023 03:23 PM
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AUD/USD, RBA mins in focus, Nasdaq tracks Thanksgiving seasonality: Asian Open

We're on the lookout for any hawkish undertone in today's RBA minutes - given the RBA's statement was deemed to be less hawkish than expected. Failure to do so could see AUD/USD hand back some of it's gains. The Nasdaq is also following its seasonaly tendency to rise into Thanksgiving.

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November 21, 2023 09:22 AM

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AUD/USD, USD/JPY forecast: Asian Open – Nov 20, 2023

With a bullish engulfing week and day for AUD/USD on Friday, can the Aussie muster up the strength for a breakout above key resistance? And if losses on USD/CNH are anything to go by, perhaps USD/JPY is preparing to follow suit.

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November 20, 2023 09:06 AM
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AUD/USD eyes breakout, bonds yields get smashed post CPI: Asian Open

Hopes that the Fed have reached their terminal rate were revived with a softer-than-expected US inflation report. Earlier comments from Fed officials (namely Powell) had rekindled concerns that the Fed may have another hike up their sleeve, yet with CPI and core CPI reads all undershooting consensus estimates, risk-on returned in a big way.

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November 15, 2023 09:15 AM

WTI crude oil mean reversion kicks in, ASX for 7100? Asian Open

WTI crude oil rose for a second day after the monthly OPEC report played down demand concerns and blamed speculators for oil's recent decline. A move to $80 at a minimum or $83 could now be on the cards. We also have a near-term bullish bias on the ASX 200.

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November 14, 2023 09:02 AM

AUD/USD, S&500 analysis: Asian Open – Nov 13, 2013

The S&P 500 continues to defy gravity and appears on the cup of breaking above a key resistance level. And whilst AUD/USD fell for five days last week, it is fast approaching a key support level that has been favourable to dip buyers in recent times.

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November 13, 2023 09:08 AM

WTI continues to defy the consensus, AUD/USD falls post RBA: Asian Open

WTI fell over 4% to a 4-month low on Tuesday after slicing through $80. AUD/USD was also the weakest FX major after the RBA's statement lacked the level of hawkishness traders were seemingly positioned for.

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November 8, 2023 08:33 AM
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AUD/USD, ASX 200: Don’t be so quick to call it a dovish RBA hike

Traders believe the RBA is one-and done when it comes to the restart of its tightening cycle, jumping to the conclusion the 25 basis point rate hike to 4.35% will likely be the last. AUD/USD fell while the ASX 200 rallied.

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November 7, 2023 03:38 PM