AUD/USD

The question now for AUD/USD and ASX 200 is whether the tone truly reflects what the RBA is thinking, or will we see a repeat of recent months where subsequent commentary has been far more hawkish in nature?

While the RBA’s final rate meeting of 2023 is the headline act on the Australian data calendar, movement in AUD/USD and USD/JPY are likely to be dictated by gyrations in US yields and USD/CNH on Tuesday.

While AUD/USD has yet to break the downtrend running from early 2022, the reprieve against the dollar has it looking more constructive against the crosses, especially the euro and Japanese yen having broken key levels on the weekly charts.

AUD/USD was the strongest performer among the Aussie pairs we track in November. A combination of hawkish RBA alongside bets of Fed cuts in 2024 played nicely with our long bias. What will December bring?

Chinese economic activity is nearing stall speed with the government’s purchasing managers indexes (PMIs) falling further in November, surprising markets to the downside for a second consecutive month.

The US PCE inflation report is arguably the event of the week, and with traders having vigorously sold the US dollar ahead of it I am left wondering if it is a case of ‘sell the rumour, buy the fact’ – especially if it comes on hot. And with AUD/USD and gold stalling around key levels on Wednesday, the potential for mean reversion seems apparent.

With USD/CNH and USD/JPY probing key support levels, we may require a break of them for AUD/USD to stand a chance of continuing its strong rally (which met strong resistance on Tuesday). Unless of course Australia is treated to an uncomfortably hot inflation report today, which could fan fears of another RBA hike.

Two milestones were set on Monday for two key Australian markets, which saw AUD/USD close above its 200-day average for the first time in four months and the ASX 200 close below 7,000.

Large speculators increased their gross-long exposure to AUD/USD futures by 17.1% and trimmed shorts by -2.9% on the day of the RBA’s last hike. And this could be a significant development when you consider net-short exposure recently hit a record level of bearishness just six weeks ago, yet prices defied bears with a sustainable break beneath 63c.

WTI crude oil rose for a second day after the monthly OPEC report played down demand concerns and blamed speculators for oil's recent decline. A move to $80 at a minimum or $83 could now be on the cards. We also have a near-term bullish bias on the ASX 200.

The S&P 500 continues to defy gravity and appears on the cup of breaking above a key resistance level. And whilst AUD/USD fell for five days last week, it is fast approaching a key support level that has been favourable to dip buyers in recent times.

AUD/USD and gold have struggled in November, giving back some of the gains achieved in late October. With both sitting near key levels, we look at the prospects for a bounce or extension of the pullback in the days ahead.

WTI fell over 4% to a 4-month low on Tuesday after slicing through $80. AUD/USD was also the weakest FX major after the RBA's statement lacked the level of hawkishness traders were seemingly positioned for.

Traders believe the RBA is one-and done when it comes to the restart of its tightening cycle, jumping to the conclusion the 25 basis point rate hike to 4.35% will likely be the last. AUD/USD fell while the ASX 200 rallied.

With an overwhelming majority now backing a 25bp RBA hike today, the RBA may need to deliver a hawkish hike for AUD/USD to stand any chance of a sustainable break above resistance and send the ASX 200 materially lower.

The AUD/USD is our featured currency pair of the week, in what will be a quieter week for economic data compared to the previous week. Still, it could be a busy one for the Aussie given that we have a rate decision from the RBA as well as economic data from China and the US to look forward to.

It seems a combination of short covering and fresh initiation of longs helped AUD/USD enjoy its best week of the year last week, just a few weeks after large speculators hit a record level of net-short exposure. The same could likely be said for the Dow Jones which also reached a record level of net-short exposure. WTI crude oil failed to capitalise on the risk-on vibe and fell for a second week.