CPI

The UK's 1-month OIS suggests ~48% chance of a 25bp cut from the BOE next month, which means today's inflation report is likely a key driver for GBP/USD on monetary policy expectations.

EURUSD, DXY Analysis: latest CPI figures boosted the sustainability rate of the dis-inflationary track, leading to a drop in US bond yields and boosting the likelihood of a September rate cut

The Dow has risen along with the Russell 200 index after the Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in at 3.0% instead of the expected 3.1%. Small caps are set for a big rally, with Russell 2000 index breaking out a good 3% at the time of writing.

Unless US CPI now comes in hotter, the GBP/USD outlook should remain positive heading deeper into the summer months. This is especially the case after the cable broke a long-term resistance trend around the 1.28 handle as investors gave Keir Starmer’s progress in his first week as UK Prime Minister the green light and US data weakened last week.

The sustainability of the US disinflationary trajectory towards the Fed’s 2% inflation target will be tested today with the release of the June CPI indicator

Traders and economists expect the US CPI report to fall to 3.1% y/y on a headline basis, with the “Core” (ex-food and -energy) reading expected to hold steady at 3.4% y/y.

Traders and economists expect the US CPI report to fall to 3.1% y/y on a headline basis, with the “Core” (ex-food and -energy) reading expected to hold steady at 3.4% y/y.

Crude Oil Forecast: The transition towards clean energy is driving long-term bearish projections for oil, yet US economic growth and policies still dominate short-term trends

The incoming US inflation report and FOMC meeting are highly anticipated events, as they can shape expectations for Fed policy beyond 2026. Volatility is expected, so we look at key levels for EUR/USD and gold ahead of these events.

Ahead of CPI and the Fed, USD/JPY’s year-to-date uptrends remains intact after a bounce from support in the 155.00 area last week.

GBPUSD outlook: Non-Farm Payrolls halted 3-month highs, what’s next for CPI and FOMC?

GBP/USD has rallied 3.5% since April's low despite favourable yield differentials with the US. Yet price action on the daily and H4 charts suggests a minor pullback may be due.

The 1-2 combination of soft CPI and retail sales has driven EUR/USD higher and sent the DAX to fresh record highs.

How is the metal likely to react to today’s CPI data? Well, it may not be quite straight forward as I have explained in this article. CPI is expected to have moderated in April to 3.4% y/y from 3.5% previously.

EURUSD Forecast: EURUSD price levels brace for volatility with the upcoming speech from Fed Powell, U.S CPI metrics, and ECB Financial Review.

USD/JPY could be vulnerable as cooling ISM Prices Paid and disinflationary base effects point to a potential decline in CPI inflation this month

With traders keen to see who will be the first among the BOE, BOC or RBNZ to cut rates, their attention will be surely on next week's inflation reports for their respective regions.