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Dow Jones Forecast: DJIA rises as risk sentiment improves

US stocks are set to open higher on Monday after steep losses last week. Following an attack by Iran on Israel over the weekend and comments from the US that it will not support a retaliatory attack by Israel, the market has calmed. Geopolitical developments will remain a key focus this week. US retail sales came in stronger than forecast, supporting the view that the Fed will keep rates high for longer. Goldman Sachs is set to rise after earnings.

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April 15, 2024 02:14 PM
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Dow Jones, Nasdaq forecast: Key levels for US indices

The recent underperformance of the Dow Jones has not come without warning, as asset managers have been reducing their net-long exposure for several weeks now. Yet the Nasdaq remains above 18k, which means it may be better suited for bulls should sentiment improve and leave the Dow Jones for bears to consider fading into, should prices rebound.

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Dow Jones Forecast: DJIA flat ahead of tomorrow's inflation data

US stocks are set for another flat session as investors sit on the sidelines ahead of tomorrow's inflation data. CPI is expected to rise to 3.4% YoY from 3.2% and could raise further doubts over the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates this year. The market is pricing in a 50/50 probability of a rate cut in June and expects rates to be cut by 60 basis points across the year, down from 75 basis points just a few weeks ago.

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April 9, 2024 02:15 PM

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DJIA, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Technical Forecast: US Index Uptrends Remain Healthy for Now

The DJIA and SPX are seeing bullish consolidations after breaking out to a record highs last week, while the Nasdaq 100 is testing the top of its 1-month range at record high, with a potential breakout targeting 19K.

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Dow Jones Forecast: DJIA rises to record high after the Fed boosts rate cut bets

US stocks are opening at fresh record highs, extending yesterday's rally after the Fed bolstered rate cut bets. The US Central Bank left rates on hold, upwardly revised the inflation outlook, and maintained its guidance for 3 rate cuts this year, surprising the market. The Fed doesn't appear to be concerned by two months of hotter-than-forecast inflation. Chip stocks are leading the rally and Reddit will start trading today on the NYSE.

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March 21, 2024 01:42 PM
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Dow Jones Forecast: DJIA slips ahead of the Fed rate decision

US stocks are heading for a mixed start, with the Dow Jones falling modestly and the Nasdaq 100 inching higher ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. Policymakers are expected to leave rates on hold. Instead, the focus will be on the projections and the tone. After two straight months of hotter-than-forecast inflation, Fed Chair Powell could adopt a more hawkish tone, pushing back rate cut bets. A more hawkish Fed could hurt demand for equities and boost the USD.

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March 20, 2024 12:50 PM
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Dow Jones Forecast: DJIA falls on inflation worries

US stocks fall after sticky inflation data this week has raised concerns the Fed may keep rates high for longer. The Fed is not expected to cut rates next week but could downwardly revise its dot plot from three rate cuts in 2024 forecast in December to 2 cuts. The USD is on track for a weekly gain as the Fed could turn more hawkish. Oil is set to rise 3% across the week on signs that the market is tightening.

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March 15, 2024 02:21 PM
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Dow Jones Forecast: DJIA pares gains after hotter PPI

US futures have pared gains after PPI data highlighted the sticky nature of inflation and raised questions about whether the Fed will be able to cut rates three times this year. The data comes after CPI earlier in the week was also hotter than expected. The market has adjusted its June rate-cut bets, but not by a significant margin, which is keeping stocks elevated. Oil extends gains after a bullish IEA oil market report.

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March 14, 2024 01:10 PM
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Dow Jones Forecast: DJIA falls in cautious trade ahead of tomorrow's CPI data

US stocks are pointing to a weaker open, extending losses from last week. Wall Street's main indices dropped on Friday as Nvidia tumbled after mixed US jobs data. Today, the mood is cautious as investors look ahead to Tuesday's inflation data, which could provide more clues about the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook. Bitcoin-related stocks rise as the cryptocurrency hits a record high.

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March 11, 2024 01:36 PM
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Dow Jones Forecast: DJIA rises after a Goldilocks NFP report

US stocks are heading for a stronger open, with the S&P 500 set for another record high after the US non-farm payroll report. While more jobs than expected were added in February, wage growth cooled by more than expected, and unemployment rose, keeping the market optimistic that a June rate cut was still likely. The data comes after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that the central bank would not be far from loosening monetary policy if inflation continued to cool.

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March 8, 2024 01:59 PM
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Dow Jones Forecast: DJIA rebounds ahead of Powell's testimony

US stocks are pointing to a stronger open after yesterday's selloff. The market is rising ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's testimony before Congress, where the market will be looking for further clues over when the Fed could start to cut interest rates. US ADP payrolls rose to 140k, up from 1.07k, but missed estimates of 150k. The data comes ahead of the non-farm payroll data on Friday.

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March 6, 2024 01:16 PM
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Dow Jones Forecast: DJIA slips in a cautious start ahead of Powell later in the week

US stocks are inching lower after last week's record highs. The mood has turned cautious as investors await further cues from the Fed. Fed chair Jerome Powell testifies before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday and US non-farm payroll data is due on Freiday. Oil is edging lower after strong gains last week in a case of "buy the rumor, sell the fact" regarding OPEC+ extending oil production cuts into Q2.

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March 4, 2024 02:01 PM
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Nasdaq 100 Dow Jones Dax Forecast ECB Powell testifying will keep rate cut expectations in focus

Last week saw the Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones & DAX reach record highs amid cooling inflation and AI optimism. The ECB rate decision and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testifying before Congress means rate cut expectations will remain front and central next week.

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March 3, 2024 06:00 AM
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Dow Jones Forecast: DJIA rises after inflation cools

US stocks edge higher after core PCE, and the Fed's preferred inflation gauge cooled in line with forecasts. Core PCE eased to 2.8%, down from 2.9%, although the monthly rate rose to 0.4%, up from 0.2%. Personal spending also slowed to 0.2%, down from 0.7%, in a sign that consumption was slowing. USD/JPY has slumped after the data & after hawkish BoJ chatter.

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February 29, 2024 03:44 PM
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Dow Jones Forecast: DJIA falls in nervous trade ahead of inflation data

US stocks are heading lower in cautious trade ahead of tomorrow's core PCE data, which could provide further clues over the timing of a Fed rate cut. Fed officials continue to push back on the need for an immediate rate cut. Meanwhile, the US economy shows signs of slowing as US Q4 GDP was downwardly revised to 3.2% annualized from the preliminary reading of 3.3% and down from 4.9% in Q3.

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February 28, 2024 01:58 PM
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Dow Jones Forecast: DJIA eases from a record high, earnings are in focus

US stocks head for a muted start after record highs in the previous session. Amid a lack of economic data, all eyes are on a slew of earnings. Netflix will report after the close. Looking ahead, US Q4 GDP and core PCE are in focus towards the end of the week.

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January 23, 2024 02:13 PM
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S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Dow Jones leave dubious candles at record highs

Whilst Wall Street indices notched up a fresh record high on Monday, price action across the major indices war of trend exhaustion.

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Dow Jones Forecast :DJIA rises despite hotter than forecast CPI

US stocks are heading higher despite hotter-than-expected CPI data. CPI rose 3.4% YoY in December, up from 3.1% in November. Core inflation cooled but by less than expected. This means a March rate cut is looking less likely. Despite an initial selloff, stocks are grinding higher once again. Earning seasons will kick off tomorrow with US banks.

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January 11, 2024 02:42 PM
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Dow Jones Forecast: DJIA muted ahead of tomorrow's CPI report

The Dow Jones points to a muted start as investors wait cautiously for tomorrow's inflation data and the start of earnings season on Friday. The CPI report could provide further guidance on the possible path for further Federal Reserve rate cuts. Hotter than forecast CPI could see the market rein in Fed rate cut bets, which could hurt demand for stocks. The CME Fed watch report sees a 65% chance of a March rate cut, down from 85% in mid December.

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January 10, 2024 02:24 PM
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Dow Jones Analysis: Studying the DJIA’s 8-Day Winning Streak to Record Highs

Historical returns following past 8-day winning streaks to record highs have been above average over the next 1-3 months, but more mixed over the next year.

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Dow Jones Forecast: Stocks rise as rate cut optimism persists

US stocks are heading higher again as rate cut optimism persists. The market has shrugged off recent comments by Fed speakers pushing back on rate-cut bets. Vice Chair John Williams and Fed policymaker Mester have suggested that the market is ahead of the Fed with regard to rate cuts. Elsewhere, Google rises despite agreeing to pay $700M to US consumers and the state and pledged to allow for greater competition in the Play store.

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December 19, 2023 02:08 PM
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Dow theory put to the test as DJIA breakout leads S&P 500, Nasdaq 100

The Dow Jones (DJIA) closed to a record high after the latest FOMC meeting. Will this pave the way for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 to follow suit?

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US Index Technical Analysis: Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 Reverse off Multi-Month Highs

“No news is good news” as they say, and if US indices continue to consolidate around current levels, we could be looking at a situation where “no price action is good price action.”