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NZD/USD pops as RBNZ rate cuts bets delivered sticky reality check

New Zealand inflationary pressures continued to ease in the March quarter, although domestic prices remained uncomfortably sticky, likely keeping the prospect of rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand a distant prospect.

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April 17, 2024 12:23 AM

NZD/USD: Inflation the only barrier between the RBNZ and rate cuts

Inflation remains key sticking point preventing interest rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, ensuring Wednesday’s first quarter consumer price inflation report will be closely watched by financial markets, especially should it print on the softer side of expectations.

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April 16, 2024 07:11 AM
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NZD/USD, NZD/JPY: RBNZ not wilting on inflation focus despite double dip recession

The Kiwi dollar is pushing higher, potentially reflecting no escalation in dovish rhetoric from the RBNZ despite New Zealand sitting in a double-dip recession. It has an inflation mandate and inflation remains too high to justify lowering rates yet.

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April 10, 2024 04:19 AM

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AUD/USD, NZD/USD, ASX 200 rise ahead of RBNZ, US inflation: Asian Open

1-day implied volatility levels for USD/JPY, EUR/USD and NZD/USD have blown out ahead of today’s key events, which includes comments from BOJ’s governor, and RBNZ cash rate decision and the US inflation report.

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April 10, 2024 12:02 AM

NZD/USD, NZD/JPY RBNZ preview: A little central bank that packs an almighty market punch

While it may be one of the smallest G10 FX central banks, what the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) lacks in size it more than makes up for in terms of market punch, often sparking major moves in the New Zealand dollar under the leadership of Governor Adrian ‘Shock and’ Orr. Wednesday's interest rate decision may be no exception.

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April 9, 2024 02:41 AM
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AUD/USD, US dollar, Swiss franc analysis: COT report – Feb 26, 2024

Traders remained net-long US dollar index futures last week, although asset managers have the more convincing bullish view for the dollar.


NZD/USD: Respect the range until the Kiwi doesn’t

Some FX pairs like to gravitate towards big figures but not the NZD/USD. It’s clearly a fan of doing things in half big figure increment, proving plenty of opportunities to build trades around.

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February 20, 2024 03:23 AM
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NZD, AUD take the lead in quiet trade but USD may not be done yet

NZD/USD and AUD/USD were the strongest pairs on Monday during quiet trade, but the USD shows the potential to bounce before a larger move lower, which could eventually allow AUD/USD to reach for 66c.

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February 19, 2024 10:12 PM

NZD/USD: What one hawkish forecaster giveth, 38 dovish forecasters taketh away

Having surged Friday on the back of a forecast from ANZ looking for an additional two hikes from the RBNZ, the NZD/USD has now given back those gains back following the latest RBNZ inflation expectation survey. What one hawkish forecaster giveth, 38 dovish forecasters have taketh away.

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February 13, 2024 04:43 AM

EUR/USD, US dollar, Dow Jones, crude oil analysis: COT report

Traders increased their bearish exposure to EUR/USD futures at their fastest pace in 20 months last week, and large speculators increased their net-long exposure to US dollar index futures despite being on the cusp of flipping to net-short exposure the week prior.

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NZD/USD eyes downtrend test as thoughts shift to China’s stock market rescue

A late flurry of buying after New Zealand’s jobs report sent NZD/USD to the top of the G10 FX leaderboard on Tuesday, leaving in on track for another retest of the downtrend it’s been stuck in throughout the entirety of 2024.

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February 6, 2024 10:53 PM

NZD/USD: RBNZ not willing to join the pivot party just yet

Hold off on your imminent RBNZ rate cut bets, because if the tone of the bank’s chief economist on Tuesday is anything to go by, it appears to have little interest in pivoting towards rate cuts as other major central banks have.

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January 30, 2024 12:25 AM

NZD/USD pops on confirmation New Zealand has a homegrown inflation problem

New Zealand has a homegrown inflation problem like Australia, limiting the likelihood of a near-term interest rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBNZ) in the absence of a n abrupt global economic downturn. The NZD/USD is bid as rate cut bets are trimmed.

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January 23, 2024 10:31 PM

S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Dow Jones leave dubious candles at record highs

Whilst Wall Street indices notched up a fresh record high on Monday, price action across the major indices war of trend exhaustion.

NZD/USD breakdown a sign soft landing euphoria may have run its course?

As a high beta play on the global economy, the NZD/USD may be signaling downside risks are growing in other cyclical assets.

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January 15, 2024 10:42 PM
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AUD/USD, NZD/USD remains supported despite hot US CPI: Asian Open

The US dollar failed to dominate the FX space despite stronger-than-expected inflation data. And with AUD/USD and NZD/USD holding key support levels, we see the potential for a move higher over the near-term unless the wheels fall off sentiment.

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January 11, 2024 10:33 PM
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NZ dollar takes flight as RBNZ strike a hawkish tone (NZD/USD, AUD/NZD)

Whilst the RBNZ were expected to hold, their statement struck a hawkish tone by stating that “inflation remains too high”. And with traders front-loading a weak CPI print for the US later this week it has catapulted the New Zealand dollar higher.

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November 29, 2023 02:12 AM

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NZD/USD: Retail spending volumes stabilise ahead of RBNZ interest rate decision

Retail spending in New Zealand was unchanged in the September quarter after accounting for price movements, an improvement on the 1% drop reported in the prior three-month period than was a tenth larger than originally reported.

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November 23, 2023 10:15 PM
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NZD/USD: Rising labour market slack points to soft wages and no more RBNZ rate hikes

NZD/USD is falling in the wake of a soft New Zealand employment report, reinforcing the view that when the RBNZ next moves interest rates, it’s far more likely to be a cut than hike.

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October 31, 2023 10:28 PM
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The top 10 most volatile currency pairs in 2023

These are the most volatile FX pairs in 2023. Learn how to trade them and use volatility to your advantage.

NZD/USD: Inflation undershoot opens the door to RBNZ rate cuts next year

New Zealand inflationary pressures moderated-more-than expected in the September quarter, taking the wind out of the NZD/USD’s sails following the expected election victory from the National Party-led coalition over the weekend.

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October 16, 2023 11:25 PM
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AUD/USD, NZD/USD and WTI outlook - Technical Tuesday

Welcome to Technical Tuesday, a weekly report where we highlight some of the most interesting markets that will hopefully appease technical analysts and traders alike. In this week’s report, we are getting technical on the AUD/USD and NZD/USD, as well as WTI crude oil, as traders await key data in the second half of the week.

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NZD/USD analysis: The RBNZ’s latest 25bp hike could be their last

NZD pairs were lower after the RBNZ hiked for a 12th consecutive meeting and signalled they may have reached a peak rate of 5.5%. At least for now.

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May 24, 2023 04:17 AM