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European Open: RBNZ deliver a hawkish 75bp hike, FOMC minutes up next
As if 75bp was not enough, the RBNZ came out swinging by increasing their terminal rate much higher than we anticipated.
Markets looking for higher Central Bank terminal rates
Major central banks around the world have been hiking rates at an unprecedented pace in order to try and cap inflation, which in some countries is at or near 40-year highs.
FOMC + BOE could send GBP/USD spiraling
GBP/USD is already down roughly 400 pips from Thursday’s high. Can it move lower? With a hawkish FOMC and a dovish BOE, it sure seems possible.
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FOMC short: Dovish statement, hawkish Powell
With the Fed not even thinking or discussing the possibility of pausing, traders may be realizing that lowering inflation may take a lot longer than they had anticipated!
Russell: Stocks on edge as Fed decision looms
The terminal rate is going to be as an important consideration for the markets as the decision to potentially downshift in December.
European Open: The VIX is near a 6-week low ahead of the FOMC meeting
What could possibly go wrong? Well, if we remember that complacency is the devil, perhaps volatility is set to explode higher.
JOLTS has markets second guessing the Fed outcome
The JOLTS figure today shows that the US has even more job vacancies than anticipated, which was already high. This should give the Fed confidence in raising rates by 75bps tomorrow.
FOMC as expected; markets extremely volatile during presser.
As for other central bank meetings: within the next 20 hours markets will hear from the BOJ, SNB, Norges Bank, BOE, and SARB.
FOMC meeting instant reaction: Not even a whisper of a pivot yet
Even looking out just until the end of this year, Fed members are projecting another 125bps of rate hikes...
FTSE rises but global stocks set to remain undermined
The slightly firmer tone is in an overall bearish macro environment, with focus on Fed, BoE and other central bank meetings this week
European Open: Implied volatility spikes, BOJ gets active ahead of FOMC
Rising yields ahead of the FOMC meeting has seen the BOJ announce bond purchases, and implied volatility has risen notably for the next 24-hours.
Stocks, bonds, cryptos and gold struggle as yields press higher
All the attention is on Wednesday’s FOMC interest rate decision.
FOMC meeting preview: 100bps unlikely, but longer rate hike path in play
In our view, the possibility of a 100bps rate hike is overblown...but that doesn't mean the Fed won't come off as hawkish.
Could tomorrow's Michigan Consumer Sentiment be the key for the FOMC’s decision next week?
If the inflation components are higher than expected, watch for a possible tape-bomb from the Wall Street Journal that the Fed is “more likely” to hike 100bps.
Instant insight: Powell “forceful” in fighting inflation at Jackson Hole
Mr. Powell clearly hit a hawkish note, emphasizing the importance of leaving policy tight until inflation was thoroughly licked.
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US Advanced GDP for Q2 is negative; Is the US in a recession?
The textbook definition of a recession is 2 quarters of negative growth. However, many economists don’t abide by that rule.
Gold holds post-FOMC bounce ahead of GDP
Expectations that inflation will soon peak and that the economy will deteriorate further points to a contractionary monetary policy stance from the Fed in 2023
Pending Home Sales rounds out weaker housing data in US
If markets see the Fed cutting back the pace of rate hikes, we may see 10-year yields lower, and as a result, housing data may pick up again.
Silver: Can precious metals rebound despite Fed tightening?
We are seeing some mild dollar selling ahead of FOMC, which is boosting the appeal of precious metals, yen and franc
European Open: FTSE falters at resistance, gold steady ahead of FOMC
Another reversal pattern has formed at a key resistance level on the FTSE 100, whilst gold shows the potential for a continuation breakout.
Gold steady ahead of FOMC - potential breakout in focus
Gold is holding above support ahead of today's FOMC meeting, and shows the potential for a continuation breakout.