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EUR/USD weekly reversal signals potential directional shift

US economic exceptionalism is back. US bond yields are rising as Fed rate cut bets are slashed. For an economic block with so much pessimism factored into the outlook, it’s a backdrop in which EUR/USD should be getting battered. But it’s not.

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February 12, 2024 04:20 AM
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FOMC Meeting Recap: Fed Chair Powell Deems March Rate Cut "Unlikely," Boosting Buck Toward YTD Highs

Powell pushes back against market pricing for a March rate hike - what's next for the Fed?

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January 31, 2024 08:05 PM
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US Dollar Forecast: USD/JPY Bull Flag Under Threat with Fed on Tap

USD/JPY appears to be negating a bull-flag formation as it tumbles to a fresh weekly low (146.07).

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By : David Song
January 31, 2024 05:35 PM

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Gold analysis: Yields slide on weak data, but FOMC poses key risk

Following the release of disappointing US data and company earnings, we saw bond yields take a nosedive ahead of the FOMC policy decision later in the day.

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Risks for crude oil and gold skewing higher as geopolitical tensions build

Geopolitical risks in the Middle East and the US interest rate outlook will be two of the dominant market themes traders will be grappling with this week, creating the potential for renewed volatility in the likes of crude oil and gold.

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January 29, 2024 05:26 AM
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Nasdaq reaches new record high, a week ahead of FOMC: The Week Ahead

Love it or loathe it, the rally on US indices has been impressive. Traders seem to be focussed on lower yields, slightly reduced bets of multiple Fed cuts and any other morsel of what can be repackaged as ‘good news’. But can it withstand incoming GDP figures, a PCE inflation report and an FOMC meeting without a wobble?

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January 25, 2024 03:34 AM
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AUD/USD eyes breakout post FOMC, USD/JPY to break 200-day MA? Asian Open

The Fed gave markets what they wanted for Christmas by signalling that rate cuts are likely coming in 2024. And that places AUD/USD and USD/JPY on notice for breakouts.

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December 13, 2023 10:29 PM
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Fed Meeting Recap: FOMC Sends Doves (And Gold) Flying

It appears clear that the next change to interest rates will be a rate cut, and the question now is when exactly the Fed’s easing cycle will begin.

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December 13, 2023 08:10 PM
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Dollar analysis: USD/JPY, GBP/USD and Gold among FOMC trades to watch

No one is expecting any further tightening from the Fed ahead of the FOMC’s last policy decision of the year. Market pricing of 125 basis point rate cuts in 2024 will be put to the test today and judging by the Fed’s cautious approach to things, there is a good chance Powell and co will push back against those expectations at today’s meeting.

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December 13, 2023 03:30 PM
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USD/JPY, Gold: Risk for US dollar, Treasury yields skewed higher unless CPI comes in cool

The US macro calendar is full of risk events this week with the Fed rate decision, US CPI and Two long bond auctions arriving over the next few days. Gold and USD/JPY are two markets particularly sensitive to shifts in US interest rates.

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December 11, 2023 02:01 AM

US CPI, FOMC, BOE, ECB and SNB on tap: The Week Ahead

Four major central banks meeting next week including the FOMC, ECB, BOE and SNB. While no changes are expected, traders want to know who may be the first to cut rates.

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December 7, 2023 02:56 AM
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FOMC Meeting Analysis: DXY Unchanged Amidst Fed Powell’s Most Milquetoast Manifesto Yet

With few changes to the policy statement and little in the way of notable developments in the press conference, markets are consolidating.

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November 1, 2023 07:01 PM
Research

Dollar analysis: FOMC and key data puts greenback in sharp focus

The resilience of US data we have seen over the past couple of weeks hasn’t led to any further appreciation in interest rate expectations, keeping the dollar in an overall holding pattern with a slight bullish tilt, especially against the weaker currencies like the JPY and EUR. But the likes of the AUD and previously CHF have shown some resilience, perhaps suggesting that most of the positivity may be priced in for the greenback.

November 1, 2023 04:29 PM
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FOMC, BOJ and BOE on tap: The Week Ahead – 27/10/2023

We have a busy calendar with what would usually be ‘red flag’ days, including central bank meetings with the FOMC, BOJ and BOE. There’s a reasonable chance we’ll see no action across all three, but the bigger response for global markets could be if the BOJ widen or abandon their yield curve control (YCC).

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October 27, 2023 01:20 AM
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AUD/USD, ASX 200 headwinds to persist with ‘higher for longer’ Fed rates: Asian Open

At the most basic level the Fed delivered what was expected; another policy pause with the potential for further hikes. The opening paragraph tipped noted an economy which is “expanding at a solid pace” with a slower but “strong” job growth and elevated inflation. There’s nothing remotely dovish there. And then we look at the numbers…

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September 20, 2023 10:42 PM

US Dollar Analysis: Fed's Hawkish Hike Boosts Buck

The US dollar rises as the Fed still expects another rate hike and only two rate cuts next year

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September 20, 2023 07:23 PM
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Euro to dollar analysis: EUR/USD short term levels to watch for FOMC

The EUR/USD and other dollar pairs will be in sharp focus for FX traders as the attention turns to the upcoming Fed decision in a few hours’ time. No rate hike is expected, but the market is pricing in about even odds of another rate increase before the year is out.

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September 20, 2023 04:23 PM

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GBP/USD outlook: Inflation and central bank meetings take center stage – BoE Preview

The GBP/USD will come into sharp focus over the next couple days, with two pivotal events on the horizon: the FOMC and BoE rate decisions. Additionally, traders are anticipating the release of UK CPI and retail sales data, as well as global PMI figures this week. These developments collectively have the potential to shape the near-term GBP/USD outlook. UK CPI could sway BoE decision, with the UK central bank likely to mimic ECB's dovish hike. Meanwhile, the FOMC is likely to go for a hawkish hold.

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September 19, 2023 02:00 PM
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GBP/USD Outlook: BoE and FOMC meetings make Cable Currency Pair of the Week

The GBP/USD is in focus ahead of this week’s key events: FOMC and BoE rate decisions. We also have UK CPI and retail sales, as well as global PMI figures to look forward to this week. The BoE is likely to deliver a final 25 bps hike, while FOMC is seen holding policy unchanged. The GBP/USD could be heading to low 1.20s in this busy week.

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September 18, 2023 01:00 PM
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FOMC, BOE, BOJ meetings, CPIs and flash PMIs: The Week Ahead – 15/09/2023

Whilst the Fed are expected to hold rates steady in September, next week’s FOMC meeting also includes the quarterly staff projections. And changes to dot plot or CPI estimates can be as good as a hike where market reactions are concerned. The odds of another BOE are next week are not as high as they were, which makes the preceding inflation report paramount to expectations for their next decision. And whilst the BOJ are unlikely to act, that is no reason to drop your guard given their tendency to surprise once in a while. We also have flash PMIs for major regions and inflation data to mull over.

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September 17, 2023 05:54 AM
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EUR/USD outlook: ECB in dovish hike ahead of more central bank action next week

Prior to today’s ECB meeting, there was a bit of uncertainty whether the ECB would hike or not, with markets pricing in a 65% implied probability of a 25-bps hike. In the end, it went ahead with the rate hike, lifting the main refinancing rate to 4.50% from 4.25% previously. But the euro nonetheless fell sharply. This is because the ECB strongly indicated that we have reached a terminal interest rate...

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September 14, 2023 02:30 PM
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Key CPI reports for UK and CA, China data and FOMC minutes: The Week Ahead

It may be the middle of the US summer, but economic data keeps coming thick and fast. A defiantly strong set of economic data from the UK piles the pressure on the Bank of England (BOE) to keep tightening, and makes next week's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report as relevant as ever.

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August 13, 2023 05:50 AM
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Fed Meeting Instant Analysis: USD/JPY Slips as Fed Flips Fully Data Dependent

USD/JPY edges lower after Fed Chair Powell emphasizes patience...