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FOMC Meeting Analysis: DXY Unchanged Amidst Fed Powell’s Most Milquetoast Manifesto Yet
With few changes to the policy statement and little in the way of notable developments in the press conference, markets are consolidating.
Dollar analysis: FOMC and key data puts greenback in sharp focus
The resilience of US data we have seen over the past couple of weeks hasn’t led to any further appreciation in interest rate expectations, keeping the dollar in an overall holding pattern with a slight bullish tilt, especially against the weaker currencies like the JPY and EUR. But the likes of the AUD and previously CHF have shown some resilience, perhaps suggesting that most of the positivity may be priced in for the greenback.
FOMC, BOJ and BOE on tap: The Week Ahead – 27/10/2023
We have a busy calendar with what would usually be ‘red flag’ days, including central bank meetings with the FOMC, BOJ and BOE. There’s a reasonable chance we’ll see no action across all three, but the bigger response for global markets could be if the BOJ widen or abandon their yield curve control (YCC).
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AUD/USD, ASX 200 headwinds to persist with ‘higher for longer’ Fed rates: Asian Open
At the most basic level the Fed delivered what was expected; another policy pause with the potential for further hikes. The opening paragraph tipped noted an economy which is “expanding at a solid pace” with a slower but “strong” job growth and elevated inflation. There’s nothing remotely dovish there. And then we look at the numbers…
US Dollar Analysis: Fed's Hawkish Hike Boosts Buck
The US dollar rises as the Fed still expects another rate hike and only two rate cuts next year
Euro to dollar analysis: EUR/USD short term levels to watch for FOMC
The EUR/USD and other dollar pairs will be in sharp focus for FX traders as the attention turns to the upcoming Fed decision in a few hours’ time. No rate hike is expected, but the market is pricing in about even odds of another rate increase before the year is out.
GBP/USD outlook: Inflation and central bank meetings take center stage – BoE Preview
The GBP/USD will come into sharp focus over the next couple days, with two pivotal events on the horizon: the FOMC and BoE rate decisions. Additionally, traders are anticipating the release of UK CPI and retail sales data, as well as global PMI figures this week. These developments collectively have the potential to shape the near-term GBP/USD outlook. UK CPI could sway BoE decision, with the UK central bank likely to mimic ECB's dovish hike. Meanwhile, the FOMC is likely to go for a hawkish hold.
GBP/USD Outlook: BoE and FOMC meetings make Cable Currency Pair of the Week
The GBP/USD is in focus ahead of this week’s key events: FOMC and BoE rate decisions. We also have UK CPI and retail sales, as well as global PMI figures to look forward to this week. The BoE is likely to deliver a final 25 bps hike, while FOMC is seen holding policy unchanged. The GBP/USD could be heading to low 1.20s in this busy week.
FOMC, BOE, BOJ meetings, CPIs and flash PMIs: The Week Ahead – 15/09/2023
Whilst the Fed are expected to hold rates steady in September, next week’s FOMC meeting also includes the quarterly staff projections. And changes to dot plot or CPI estimates can be as good as a hike where market reactions are concerned. The odds of another BOE are next week are not as high as they were, which makes the preceding inflation report paramount to expectations for their next decision. And whilst the BOJ are unlikely to act, that is no reason to drop your guard given their tendency to surprise once in a while. We also have flash PMIs for major regions and inflation data to mull over.
EUR/USD outlook: ECB in dovish hike ahead of more central bank action next week
Prior to today’s ECB meeting, there was a bit of uncertainty whether the ECB would hike or not, with markets pricing in a 65% implied probability of a 25-bps hike. In the end, it went ahead with the rate hike, lifting the main refinancing rate to 4.50% from 4.25% previously. But the euro nonetheless fell sharply. This is because the ECB strongly indicated that we have reached a terminal interest rate...
Key CPI reports for UK and CA, China data and FOMC minutes: The Week Ahead
It may be the middle of the US summer, but economic data keeps coming thick and fast. A defiantly strong set of economic data from the UK piles the pressure on the Bank of England (BOE) to keep tightening, and makes next week's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report as relevant as ever.
Fed Meeting Instant Analysis: USD/JPY Slips as Fed Flips Fully Data Dependent
USD/JPY edges lower after Fed Chair Powell emphasizes patience...
Euro to US dollar analysis: EUR/USD in focus with FOMC, ECB rate decisions looming
First up, the Fed will take centre stage later today, when it will most likely – almost certainly – deliver what everyone expects, a 25-basis point rate hike. The dollar’s reaction will depend entirely on the FOMC’s hints about the next meeting in September. Meanwhile, the ECB is also facing a dilemma of whether to pre-commit to another hike in September.
USD/JPY drifts to support ahead of FOMC: Asian Open – 26th July 2023
USD/JPY might remain range-bound heading into the FOMC meeting, at which point it is down to how hawkish (or not) the Fed are as to how strong the USD will likely be.
EUR/USD, USD/JPY Analysis: Currencies tread water ahead of today's FOMC meeting
Like most markets, EUR/USD and USD/JPY are in holding patterns ahead of today’s FOMC meeting, where traders will seek clues over how long rates will remain elevated.
The Week Ahead: US Inflation, FOMC, ECB and BOJ meetings in focus
Three mighty central banks release their monetary policy decisions next week, starting with the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. But Tuesday’s inflation report could also carry some clout as it has the potential to move the needle between an anticipated pause to an undesired hike if it surprises too much to the upside.
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US dollar analysis: Fed threads the needle, still sees no cuts
Powell appears to be threading the needle between leaving the door open for additional rate hikes while remaining responsive to the current banking stresses.
US dollar analysis: Fed poised to hike, but will it be the last?
Ahead of the Fed, the US dollar has generally fallen vs. the euro this year, but there are signs EUR/USD may be losing its bullish momentum after a failed breakout to 1-year highs.
Two Trades to Watch: FTSE, USD/JPY
FTSE falls after hot UK inflation. USD/JPY tests the 50 sma resistance ahead of the Fed rate decision.
European Open: UK inflation up next, then focus shifts to the FOMC meeting
Today’s UK inflation print could be the difference between a final 25bp hike from the BOE tomorrow, or a pause. Then our attention turns to the FOMC meeting.
What if the Fed Fund Futures curve is too dovish?
Fed fund futures (FFF) suggest an 87.1% chance of 25bp hike for today's FOMC meeting - and I agree with that part. But what about the rest of the curve?
Fed meeting preview: Dollar Index at 1-month lows ahead of tight decision
We agree with the market’s expectation that Jerome Powell and company are likely to deliver a 25bps interest rate hike this month, though we certainly wouldn’t be shocked to see the central bank hold fire for now.