Week ahead

Last week we noted that bond yields could trump economic data this week, and for the most part they did. We can also extend that comment into next week, especially if they continue to retreat and loosen their grip on bearish sentiment and allow risk assets to rebound. Highlights in next week’s calendar include the NFP and ISM PMI reports, RBA and RBNZ monetary policy meetings, the quarterly Tankan survey for Japan and Canada’s employment report.

The most notable reaction following the latest FOMC meeting was the reaction of bond markets, which continued to plunge and send yields higher. Not even the US dollar could extend its rally meaningfully despite the rise of yields. But global stock markets certainly took notice and fell in tandem as investors finally took the Fed seriously that interest rates are likely to remain higher for longer. So whilst we have US PCE inflation, consumer sentiment, GDP, retail sales and the likes of China PMIs and Australian CPI, it is likely to be how bond yields behave next week as to how important these economic data points become.

Whilst the Fed are expected to hold rates steady in September, next week’s FOMC meeting also includes the quarterly staff projections. And changes to dot plot or CPI estimates can be as good as a hike where market reactions are concerned. The odds of another BOE are next week are not as high as they were, which makes the preceding inflation report paramount to expectations for their next decision. And whilst the BOJ are unlikely to act, that is no reason to drop your guard given their tendency to surprise once in a while. We also have flash PMIs for major regions and inflation data to mull over.

The combination of a key US inflation report and finely-balanced ECB interest decision should keep EUR/USD on trader’s radars. Although we also have plenty of data out from China which could sway sentiment for risk assets, including CPI/PPI, loan growth, investment, retail sales and employment.

We can expect quieter trade on Monday due to the Labor Day weekend in the US and Canada, but as the week progresses we have a host of data from the APAC region including China's PMIs, inflation and trade figures. Governor Lowe holds is last RBA meeting and, like the RBA, the BOC are expected to hold rates. The ISM services PMI survey is a key data point for the US.

It's the last trading week of August, and it's fair to say that market conditions were more volatile and eventful than this time of year tends to provide. At the time of writing, we're yet to hear what Fed Chair Jerome Powell has to say, but it could certainly set the tone for next week's trade. And there is no shortage of data to kick off September, including US PCE inflation, GDP, and the ISM manufacturing survey. Final PMIs are also published for the US, UK, Europe, Japan, and Australia. And incoming RBA Governor Bullock speaks, and a host of Australian data includes CPI, retail sales, home loans, and capex.

The annual Jackson Hole symposium has arrived, and once again Jerome Powell will be the highlight of the event. Last year his speech marked the beginning of a 20% decline for the S&P 500 (which was already in a bear market), so his words clearly packed a punch. We also have retail sales data for the UK, Canada and the US and earnings from a few US companies can also help us measure consumer sentiment.

It may be the middle of the US summer, but economic data keeps coming thick and fast. A defiantly strong set of economic data from the UK piles the pressure on the Bank of England (BOE) to keep tightening, and makes next week's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report as relevant as ever.

Three mighty central banks release their monetary policy decisions next week, starting with the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. But Tuesday’s inflation report could also carry some clout as it has the potential to move the needle between an anticipated pause to an undesired hike if it surprises too much to the upside.

The debt-ceiling is on track to be raised which resulted in strong rally for risk assets such as the Nasdaq and S&P 500 on Friday, ahead of the long weekend.

We could be off to a quiet start to the week as public holidays in the UK and US will see key trading hubs closed on Monday. But whilst low-liquidity sessions can be quiet, they can also provide uncomfortable levels of volatility should an unexpected catalyst arrive.

Last week's extended and deeper COVID lockdowns saw the Australian Government roughly double its support for the economy to over $1B a week.

Have a great weekend, stay safe, and make sure to wash your hands!!

The main focus is going to unfortunately be on the cononavirus.

Often, when price fails to breakout of one side, it tries to retest the other side.

Has the rate of increase topped on newly discovered Coronavirus cases?

The RBA meets tomorrow and the market expects the Central Bank to leave rates unchanged.