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Can US PMI surveys and employment reports sway bonds? The Week Ahead
Last week we noted that bond yields could trump economic data this week, and for the most part they did. We can also extend that comment into next week, especially if they continue to retreat and loosen their grip on bearish sentiment and allow risk assets to rebound. Highlights in next week’s calendar include the NFP and ISM PMI reports, RBA and RBNZ monetary policy meetings, the quarterly Tankan survey for Japan and Canada’s employment report.
Bonds could trump data next week if yields keep surging: The Week Ahead
The most notable reaction following the latest FOMC meeting was the reaction of bond markets, which continued to plunge and send yields higher. Not even the US dollar could extend its rally meaningfully despite the rise of yields. But global stock markets certainly took notice and fell in tandem as investors finally took the Fed seriously that interest rates are likely to remain higher for longer. So whilst we have US PCE inflation, consumer sentiment, GDP, retail sales and the likes of China PMIs and Australian CPI, it is likely to be how bond yields behave next week as to how important these economic data points become.
FOMC, BOE, BOJ meetings, CPIs and flash PMIs: The Week Ahead – 15/09/2023
Whilst the Fed are expected to hold rates steady in September, next week’s FOMC meeting also includes the quarterly staff projections. And changes to dot plot or CPI estimates can be as good as a hike where market reactions are concerned. The odds of another BOE are next week are not as high as they were, which makes the preceding inflation report paramount to expectations for their next decision. And whilst the BOJ are unlikely to act, that is no reason to drop your guard given their tendency to surprise once in a while. We also have flash PMIs for major regions and inflation data to mull over.
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US CPI, ECB and a slew of China data: The Week Ahead – 08/09/2023
The combination of a key US inflation report and finely-balanced ECB interest decision should keep EUR/USD on trader’s radars. Although we also have plenty of data out from China which could sway sentiment for risk assets, including CPI/PPI, loan growth, investment, retail sales and employment.
ISM services, RBA, BOC meeting, China CPI: The Week Ahead – 01/09/2023
We can expect quieter trade on Monday due to the Labor Day weekend in the US and Canada, but as the week progresses we have a host of data from the APAC region including China's PMIs, inflation and trade figures. Governor Lowe holds is last RBA meeting and, like the RBA, the BOC are expected to hold rates. The ISM services PMI survey is a key data point for the US.
PCE inflation, NFP and ISM manufacturing in focus: The Week Ahead – 25/08/2023
It's the last trading week of August, and it's fair to say that market conditions were more volatile and eventful than this time of year tends to provide. At the time of writing, we're yet to hear what Fed Chair Jerome Powell has to say, but it could certainly set the tone for next week's trade. And there is no shortage of data to kick off September, including US PCE inflation, GDP, and the ISM manufacturing survey. Final PMIs are also published for the US, UK, Europe, Japan, and Australia. And incoming RBA Governor Bullock speaks, and a host of Australian data includes CPI, retail sales, home loans, and capex.
Jackson Hole, Powell speech to drive sentiment: The Week Ahead
The annual Jackson Hole symposium has arrived, and once again Jerome Powell will be the highlight of the event. Last year his speech marked the beginning of a 20% decline for the S&P 500 (which was already in a bear market), so his words clearly packed a punch. We also have retail sales data for the UK, Canada and the US and earnings from a few US companies can also help us measure consumer sentiment.
Key CPI reports for UK and CA, China data and FOMC minutes: The Week Ahead
It may be the middle of the US summer, but economic data keeps coming thick and fast. A defiantly strong set of economic data from the UK piles the pressure on the Bank of England (BOE) to keep tightening, and makes next week's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report as relevant as ever.
Earnings This Week: Walmart, Tencent and Aviva
Find out what to expect from this week's earnings calendar.
Credit ratings, CPI for China and US in focus: The Week Ahead
Credit ratings become relevant again when Fitch downgraded the US, even if US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen thinks they are “outdated”. The surprise move may mean that investors will keep a closer eye on upcoming credit ratings, with Germany and Switzerland’s due for a review next week. We also have key inflation data for the US and China. Markets essentially want to see core CPI in the US fall harder and faster to justify their bets that the Fed are done hiking rates. And we’ll also find out if China’s annual inflation rate falls below zero for the first time in over two years.
The Week Ahead: US inflation, BOC and RBNZ meetings take the helm
US inflation takes the centre stage next week for economic data, with the Bank of Canada (BOC) and Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) also set to announce their monetary policy decisions.
The Week Ahead: RBA meeting, ISM surveys and Nonfarm payroll in focus
The RBA meet on Tuesday in what could be Governor Lowe’s final meeting, so will he go out with a 25bp bang of fade away with a pause? Employment data for the US includes Nonfarm payrolls, ADP and claims data, and traders also have ISM manufacturing and services reports to look forward to.
Earnings This Week: Nike, Micron and Carnival
Find out what to expect from the stocks due to report earnings this week.
The Week Ahead: PCE inflation, euro CPIs and China PMIs in focus
We’re heading into the weekend with some risk-off volatility across Asian markets, as traders respond to the 50bp BOE and (well-grounded) concerns that central banks globally are not yet done with their tightening cycles. That means economic data remains as important as ever as investor as we head into next week, which includes PCE inflation for the US, flash PMIs across Europe and official PMI data for China.
The Week Ahead: US Inflation, FOMC, ECB and BOJ meetings in focus
Three mighty central banks release their monetary policy decisions next week, starting with the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. But Tuesday’s inflation report could also carry some clout as it has the potential to move the needle between an anticipated pause to an undesired hike if it surprises too much to the upside.
Can gold bugs reclaim $2000 on Fed-pause bets? The Week Ahead
The debt-ceiling is on track to be raised which resulted in strong rally for risk assets such as the Nasdaq and S&P 500 on Friday, ahead of the long weekend.
The Week Ahead: S&P 500 bears begin to capitulate on debt-ceiling hopes
We could be off to a quiet start to the week as public holidays in the UK and US will see key trading hubs closed on Monday. But whilst low-liquidity sessions can be quiet, they can also provide uncomfortable levels of volatility should an unexpected catalyst arrive.
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AUDUSD vulnerable ahead of this weeks RBA communique
Last week's extended and deeper COVID lockdowns saw the Australian Government roughly double its support for the economy to over $1B a week.
Weekly Recap/Week Ahead: What Just Happened?
Have a great weekend, stay safe, and make sure to wash your hands!!
Week Ahead: Coronavirus Contagion in Focus
The main focus is going to unfortunately be on the cononavirus.
Week Ahead: More Downside for the Euro?
Often, when price fails to breakout of one side, it tries to retest the other side.
Week Ahead: Have We Seen the Top in Coronavirus Cases?
Has the rate of increase topped on newly discovered Coronavirus cases?
RBA Preview: Will They Cut?
The RBA meets tomorrow and the market expects the Central Bank to leave rates unchanged.