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2024 Market Outlook: US Dollar in Focus as Central Banks Pivot

Why the US dollar could benefit from fewer rate cuts than expected following a relatively quiet 2023...


USD/JPY: Weakening upstream inflation bodes ill for BOJ wage acceleration

USD/JPY is trading 40 pips away from multi-decade highs as upstream inflationary pressures in Japan are coming off hard. Perhaps that explains we've had no verbal intervention attempts from the government today?

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November 13, 2023 02:02 AM

TLT EFT rebound faces major test from long bond auctions, Fedspeak

With a slate of long-dated Treasury auctions arriving this week, it’s not a bad time to look at iShares’ 20 Plus Year Treasury Bond ETF, especially with trading volumes for ‘TLT’ are going through the roof.

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Nasdaq 100 faces reversal risk if dovish rates narrative unravels

Markets have been loosening financial conditions aggressively ever since the Fed meeting, creating reversal risks should incoming data challenge the dovish narrative. Nasdaq 100 is one market that's run very hard very fast.

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November 3, 2023 03:23 AM
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NFP Preview: EUR/USD Surges to Test 50-day EMA Ahead of Jobs Report

A weaker-than-expected NFP report could accelerate the selling in the US dollar (buying in EUR/USD) for a move up toward the top of the flag pattern above 1.0700.

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November 2, 2023 01:48 PM
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FOMC Meeting Analysis: DXY Unchanged Amidst Fed Powell’s Most Milquetoast Manifesto Yet

With few changes to the policy statement and little in the way of notable developments in the press conference, markets are consolidating.

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November 1, 2023 07:01 PM

British Pound Analysis: GBP/USD Coils Ahead of BOE “Super Thursday”

With no change to BOE interest rates expected, GBP/USD traders will key in on the BOE’s vote split and economic forecasts.

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October 31, 2023 06:55 PM

US Dollar Analysis: USD/JPY Dips Ahead of BOJ, Fed

USD/JPY is showing signs of rolling over, but remains in a longer-term uptrend ahead of the BOJ and Fed

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October 30, 2023 06:56 PM
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S&P 500: Key moment for US stocks as tech earnings, PCE inflation, technical setup collide

Having fallen through channel support and its 200-day MA, and with four members of the ‘Magnificent 7’ due to report third quarter earnings over the next few days, you get the sense this week could really set the tone for how the S&P 500 will close out 2023.

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October 23, 2023 02:41 AM

EUR/USD Analysis: Mideast Turmoil Drives The Week Ahead – 06/17/2023

EUR/USD remains in a bearish channel amidst general strength in the greenback – potential for more downside in the coming week?

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October 13, 2023 03:55 PM

Gold, S&P 500: Two trade ideas for a potential Fed interest rate pivot

Softer US economic data, risk aversion and shift in tone from the Fed suggest the highs for yields may have been seen. Recent price action in gold and S&P 500 tends to agree.

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October 12, 2023 12:14 AM
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Gold Analysis: Will US CPI Crush Hopes of a November Fed Hike?

A soft inflation report this week may put the proverbial “nail in the coffin” for any immediate interest rate changes...

EUR/USD: Corrective rebound put to the test by packed events calendar

The durability of the EUR/USD rebound will be put to the test over the next 48 hours as traders face a raft of events that could make-or-break the medium-term outlook for US bond yields and the USD.

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October 11, 2023 02:48 AM
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USD/JPY, TLT ETF: CPI, bond auctions, Fed make this a huge week for yield sensitive assets

JPY and long bonds have been rallying, in part because investors hope higher bond yields may see the Fed call time on rate hikes. But there's just one problem: yields are tumbling.

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NFP Preview: EUR/USD Bearish Trend Intact Below 1.0530

EUR/USD remains in a bearish channel with resistance at 1.0530 ahead of NFP

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October 5, 2023 04:54 PM
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Q4 US Dollar Outlook: US Economic Exceptionalism to End?

The US dollar has surged on US economic exceptionalism so far this year, but that trend may change in Q4...


USD/JPY Q4 Outlook: Risks tilted higher as fundamentals battle BOJ intervention threat

USD/JPY likely to continue grinding higher as bulls navigate the evolving threat posed by potential Bank of Japan intervention.

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October 3, 2023 10:30 PM

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EUR/USD: Inflation data creates make-or-break moment for common currency

EUR/USD faces a stern test in the days ahead, battling divergent fundamentals, increasing risk aversion and a technical backdrop that’s as bearish as any in the G10 FX universe right now.

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September 28, 2023 12:47 AM

GBP/USD: Looming US data creates squeeze risk for unloved and oversold pound

With GBP/USD sentiment so poor, and major US economic data arriving later this week, conditions look ideal for a countertrend squeeze over the coming days.

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September 27, 2023 05:26 AM
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AUD/USD, ASX 200 headwinds to persist with ‘higher for longer’ Fed rates: Asian Open

At the most basic level the Fed delivered what was expected; another policy pause with the potential for further hikes. The opening paragraph tipped noted an economy which is “expanding at a solid pace” with a slower but “strong” job growth and elevated inflation. There’s nothing remotely dovish there. And then we look at the numbers…

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September 20, 2023 10:42 PM

US Dollar Analysis: Fed's Hawkish Hike Boosts Buck

The US dollar rises as the Fed still expects another rate hike and only two rate cuts next year

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September 20, 2023 07:23 PM

GBP/USD, USD/JPY Forecast: Two Trades to Watch

GBP/USD falls after inflation unexpectedly cools. USD/JPY trades at the 2023 high ahead of the FOMC rate decision.

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USD/JPY: divergent central bank messaging generates renewed upside risk

The next few days will be pivotal for USD/JPY as rate decisions from the Fed and BOJ collide, providing an environment where we could get an explosive move in either direction.

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September 20, 2023 12:38 AM