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FOMC meeting recap: Dollar dives on “dovish hike”
The Fed has toned down its statement to give it flexibility to pause the interest rate hiking cycle in May depending on incoming economic data
What if the Fed Fund Futures curve is too dovish?
Fed fund futures (FFF) suggest an 87.1% chance of 25bp hike for today's FOMC meeting - and I agree with that part. But what about the rest of the curve?
Fed meeting preview: Dollar Index at 1-month lows ahead of tight decision
We agree with the market’s expectation that Jerome Powell and company are likely to deliver a 25bps interest rate hike this month, though we certainly wouldn’t be shocked to see the central bank hold fire for now.
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US CPI recap: GBP/USD holds above 200-day EMA as inflation meets expectations
The report printed in line with expectations at 6.0% y/y, the smallest annualized gain since September 2021
NFP preview: Have dollar bulls gotten ahead of themselves?
Weighing the data and our internal models, the leading indicators point to a slightly above expectation reading in this month’s NFP report - see why!
Powell puts a 50bps March hike firmly on the radar, GBP/USD tests 2023 lows
According to the CME’s FedWatch tool, investors are now pricing in a 60/40 shot of a 50bps rate hike in two weeks’ time and that rates could peak above 5.5%.
Powell prepares to pontificate to policymakers, AUD/USD tests 0.6700 support
Some officials and Fed watchers have suggested a 50 basis-point move should be on the table if inflation fails to slow...
FOMC minutes instant insight: A touch of hawkishness leaves a 50bps rate hike on the table
There is nothing in these FOMC minutes that should keep the central bank from raising interest rates “higher for longer” if US economic data continues to come in stronger than expected.
Markets are waking up to a 50bp Fed hike, FOMC mins up next
It may have taken a few weeks, but markets are finally pricing in what we argued all along; a higher terminal rate and no cuts this year.
US CPI preview: Disinflation has begun, but will it be fast enough for the Fed?
The US CPI report is now THE single economic release with the largest expected market movement, so traders should absolutely have this release marked with the bullet on their calendars.
GBP/USD rallies to the mid-1.21s, despite big bets on a 6% Fed rate
One trader amassed a large position in options that would make $135 million if the central bank keeps tightening until September!
Nasdaq 100 uptrend intact after Fed Williams rehashes Powell
Markets are skeptical that the central bank will tighten policy enough to derail the economy, even if inflation remains stubborn.
Will Powell disappoint dollar die-hards?
Futures markets now tally with many Fed policymakers for the first time this year, accepting the Fed's "terminal rate" will be above 5%...
European Open: Currencies tread water ahead of Jerome Powell speech
The USD pulled back yet mostly held on to its post-NFP gains in anticipation of a hawkish speech from Jerome Powell this evening.
NFP preview: Imbalanced labor market to remain a thorn in the Fed’s side?
Will this finally be the reading that shows signals the tight labor market is easing?
Fed fund pricing calls bulldust on Fed hike(s)
Whilst the Fed effectively confirmed two more 25bp hikes to are to follow, Fed fund futures remain unconvinced and are pricing in a single hike to take rates to 5%.
FOMC meeting recap: Powell not hawkish enough, traders price in 50bps of cuts by EOY
Fed Funds futures traders are pricing in a full 50bps of interest rate cuts by the end of the year!
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US open: Stocks fall as Snap disappoints & ahead of the Fed
Stocks are heading southwards after Snap, a usual canary in the coal mine, posts the slowest revenue growth since going public in 2017 and as investors await the Fed rate decision.
European Open: Tight ranges ahead of NFP but implied volatility perks up
The conclusion of the FOMC meeting at 19:00 GMT is hands down the main even, so we could be in for a session of tight ranges beforehand (and fireworks after).
Consumer confidence recap: A rollercoaster of economic emotion
The January Consumer Confidence report is a reminder that the US economy is like a rollercoaster ride, full of ups and downs.
Fed meeting preview: The magic show of interest rates, inflation, and growth
The big question on everyone's mind is, will Fed Chairman Powell be able to pull off another successful performance?
NFP preview: no signs of a slowing jobs market yet!
Thankfully, some of the early data suggests that the US consumer remained healthy as of December, and that optimism is keeping expectations for the labor market elevated as well.
US open: Stocks selloff on hawkish central banks
Stocks extend the selloff as hawkish guidance from the ECB adds to the Fed gloom.