Fed

Why the US dollar could benefit from fewer rate cuts than expected following a relatively quiet 2023...

USD/JPY is trading 40 pips away from multi-decade highs as upstream inflationary pressures in Japan are coming off hard. Perhaps that explains we've had no verbal intervention attempts from the government today?

With a slate of long-dated Treasury auctions arriving this week, it’s not a bad time to look at iShares’ 20 Plus Year Treasury Bond ETF, especially with trading volumes for ‘TLT’ are going through the roof.

Markets have been loosening financial conditions aggressively ever since the Fed meeting, creating reversal risks should incoming data challenge the dovish narrative. Nasdaq 100 is one market that's run very hard very fast.

A weaker-than-expected NFP report could accelerate the selling in the US dollar (buying in EUR/USD) for a move up toward the top of the flag pattern above 1.0700.

With few changes to the policy statement and little in the way of notable developments in the press conference, markets are consolidating.

With no change to BOE interest rates expected, GBP/USD traders will key in on the BOE’s vote split and economic forecasts.

USD/JPY is showing signs of rolling over, but remains in a longer-term uptrend ahead of the BOJ and Fed

EUR/USD remains in a bearish channel with resistance at 1.0530 ahead of NFP

The US dollar has surged on US economic exceptionalism so far this year, but that trend may change in Q4...

USD/JPY likely to continue grinding higher as bulls navigate the evolving threat posed by potential Bank of Japan intervention.

EUR/USD faces a stern test in the days ahead, battling divergent fundamentals, increasing risk aversion and a technical backdrop that’s as bearish as any in the G10 FX universe right now.

With GBP/USD sentiment so poor, and major US economic data arriving later this week, conditions look ideal for a countertrend squeeze over the coming days.

At the most basic level the Fed delivered what was expected; another policy pause with the potential for further hikes. The opening paragraph tipped noted an economy which is “expanding at a solid pace” with a slower but “strong” job growth and elevated inflation. There’s nothing remotely dovish there. And then we look at the numbers…

The US dollar rises as the Fed still expects another rate hike and only two rate cuts next year

GBP/USD falls after inflation unexpectedly cools. USD/JPY trades at the 2023 high ahead of the FOMC rate decision.

The next few days will be pivotal for USD/JPY as rate decisions from the Fed and BOJ collide, providing an environment where we could get an explosive move in either direction.