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AUD/USD lower as the RBA enters perpetual-hold mode
With no imminent reason for the RBA to hike or cut, the 4.35% cash rate seems here to stay. But the removal of their slight tightening bias weighed on AUD/USD.
Central Bank galore with BOJ, Fed, BOE, SNB and RBA on tap: The Week Ahead
It is a monster week ahead for traders with a key focus on central banks, with BOJ, Fed, BOE and RBA meetings on the menu.
AUD/USD weekly outlook: RBA, FOMC minutes, wages and PMIs on tap
AUD/USD could be susceptible to movement from minutes of the recent FOMC and RBA meetings. But with Australian unemployment data hitting a three-year high, a softer set of wage figures could bring forward bets of a rate cut.
AUD/USD, ASX 200 rebound on China market surge, not RBA
The RBA continues to see the risk that rates may increase again despite delivering updated forecasts showing faster progress in bringing inflation back to within its target band. For AUD/USD traders, there was more interest in the rally in Chinese stocks and currency than what the bank had to say.
AUD/USD upside hamstrung by Australia’s stretched consumer
Bargain hunting by cost conscious consumers saw Australian retail sales volumes accelerate slightly in the final three months of 2023, reducing the risk of a negative growth when the December quarter national accounts are released in early March.
USD extends its lead on hot ISM report, RBA up next for AUD, ASX traders
An inflationary ISM report saw bets of multiple Fed cuts reduced to send the US dollar index to an 11-week high. If the RBA come out with a dovish meeting today, AUD/USD could be headed for 64c.
EUR/AUD winning streak faces upside test ahead of RBA decision
EUR/AUD is on track to record its fifth consecutive daily gain to start the trading week, moving the pair to within touching distance of the downtrend bulls have been thwarted at on several separate occasions dating back to the middle of last year.
AUD/USD weekly outlook: Powell, RBA rate decision in focus
Monday could be off to a volatile start if Jerome Powell’s 60-minutes interview causes a stir for global markets. Whilst the RBA meeting, press conference and updated forecasts could drive sentiment for AUD and the ASX next week
AUD monthly outlook: February 2024
AUD/USD suffered its worst month in 11 in January, after traders scaled back bets of several Fed cuts this year which helped the US dollar rally and force AUD/USD -3.5% lower for the month. The focus now shifts to next week's RBA meeting.
Growing risk RBA may cut rates before the Federal Reserve
There’s a growing risk the RBA may end up cutting interest rates sooner than US Federal Reserve with a slowdown in underlying inflationary pressures in the December quarter seeing markets shift forward expectation for a 25 basis point rate cut to early May.
AUD/USD falls, ASX probes record high on soft CPI figures, RBA-cut bets
Australia’s Q4 data report will be warmly welcomed for those calling for RBA cuts, with all headline data points coming in beneath expectations.
AUD/USD: Sticky domestic price pressures to collide with US disinflation narrative
The AUD/USD's global focus may pause temporarily later this week when Australia’s inflation indicator is released, containing a whole raft of new information on what’s happening with prices at the consumer level, especially for services.
AUD/USD: On the lookout for hawkish signals in the RBA meeting minutes
The tone of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) minutes has come across as more hawkish than that of the monthly monetary policy statement under the leadership of Michele Bullock as Governor, pointing to the risk of a similar outcome when the minutes of the RBA’s December meeting are released later Tuesday.
AUD/USD: Australia’s jobs report just the tonic for RBA policy inaction
Booming jobs growth, record labour force participation and a gradual loosening of labour market conditions with the unemployment rate ticking up to 3.9%. For policymakers attempting to deliver a soft economic landing, Australia’s jobs report for November could barely have been better.
AUD/USD, ASX 200: Three-peat of hawkish disappointment under the RBA’s new leadership
The question now for AUD/USD and ASX 200 is whether the tone truly reflects what the RBA is thinking, or will we see a repeat of recent months where subsequent commentary has been far more hawkish in nature?
AUD monthly wrap: December 2023
AUD/USD was the strongest performer among the Aussie pairs we track in November. A combination of hawkish RBA alongside bets of Fed cuts in 2024 played nicely with our long bias. What will December bring?
AUD/USD threatening key level on slow progress in taming underlying inflation pressures
Headline Australian CPI undershot market expectations in October, although progress on taming underlying price pressures was disappointing, helping to boost AUD/USD.
AUD/USD rises as RBA min retain hawkish bias, USD/JPY, USD/CNH slide continues
There was a risk that the RBA’s minutes were more hawkish than their November statement had let on, and this certainly seems to be the case. And hawkish minutes alongside a lower USD/CNH and USD/JPY have helped AUD/USD test a new cycle high today. Can it now gun for 66?
Bond auctions could trump data next week: The Week Ahead
In what seems like a while, the US economic calendar is relatively quiet with no top tier events. But US bond auctions should be on trader’s radars as they provide a look at how strong demand is (or not) for the ultimate US safe-haven asset. And if demand is low, it could send yields higher and shake a few equity bulls out of the tree and generally weigh on risk sentiment. We also have the RBA minutes and a potentially ‘live’ speech for the governor to keep tabs on.
GBP/AUD: Central bank divergence put to the test as risk laden week begins
With plenty of major data and central bank speeches scheduled in the UK and Australia this week, the next few days may prove to be critical for the medium-term trajectory for GBP/AUD heading into 2024.
AUD/USD: Tumbles as RBA rate hike bets slashed, eyes fresh 2023 lows
Tumbling US stock futures and neutral language from RBA Governor Michele Bullock has seen AUD/USD plunge in early Asian trade, continuing the sizeable reversal seen on Wednesday following the release of Australia’s Q3 hot inflation report.
AUD/USD higher, ASX 200 lower as hot inflation bolsters RBA rate hike bets
Australian inflation has come in hot in Q3, seeing the odds for a RBA rate hike in November lift to 60%. The AUD/USD has moved higher while the ASX 200 has reversed earlier gains, turning negative for the session.
AUD/USD, ASX 200: A quick guide on what to watch in today’s Australian inflation report
When you look back through the history books, no other economic data release is more important for the AUD and ASX than Australia’s quarterly consumer price inflation report. Today will be no exception.