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Powell testimony, US CPI, RBNZ and French Election: The Week Ahead

Traders will keep a close eye on the outcome of the second round of the French elections at the Asian open next week, as it could have a direct impact on European markets. Given that the far right failed to secure a majority government, there are upside risks for the euro if they do not perform as well as currently expected. Jerome Powell will also address the Senate Banking Committee ahead of a key inflation report next week. Both events have the potential to shape policy expectations for 2025. NZ dollar traders should closely monitor the RBNZ meeting to see if they maintain the hawkish stance that surprised markets in their prior meeting.

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AUD/USD outlook: RBA mins point to quarterly CPI figures for policy clues

Concerns that headline employment figures could be lagging a worse picture alongside a lack of updated service inflation figures prompted the RBA to hold rates in June. And that makes the quarterly CPI report in a few weeks all the more important.

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July 2, 2024 06:00 AM
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USD/CHF traders are nervous of being ‘caught short’ ahead of SNB

Futures traders may be heavily net-short Swiss Francs, but the rapid rise of the currency this week ahead of the SNB meeting suggests some are wary of being caught short a less-dovish central bank.

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USD/JPY spikes higher post BOJ, but be wary of false moves above 158

Traders are clearly keeping a close eye on the 158 handle after USD/JPY spiked up to it. Note that we're yet to see a daily close above 158 since late April, which landed one day before the MOF first intervened this year.

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June 14, 2024 05:42 AM
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BOE, SNB, RBA meetings, flash PMIs in focus: The Week Ahead

For the first week in a while, US data is not dominating the market focus. With a key US inflation report and FOMC meeting freshly in the rear-view mirror, markets can now shift attention to domestic data. Three top-tier central banks meet next week, including the RBA on Tuesday, followed by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and Bank of England (BOE) on Thursday. UK inflation data on Wednesday could set the tone for what to expect at future BOE meetings. Flash PMIs across Asia, Europe, and the US then close out the week, which can shape expectations for future growth and inflationary pressures.

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June 14, 2024 02:11 AM
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USD/JPY could be caught in the crossfire of FOMC, BOJ: The Week Ahead

With a key US inflation report being delivered less than six hours ahead of an FOMC meeting, it leaves plenty of potential for volatile swings leading into the headline event of the week. The Bank of Japan also announce their monetary policy decision, which puts USD/JPY onto the radar for currency traders.

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AUD/USD weekly outlook: RBA, FOMC minutes, wages and PMIs on tap

AUD/USD could be susceptible to movement from minutes of the recent FOMC and RBA meetings. But with Australian unemployment data hitting a three-year high, a softer set of wage figures could bring forward bets of a rate cut.

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February 18, 2024 08:00 PM
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AUD/USD falls, ASX probes record high on soft CPI figures, RBA-cut bets

Australia’s Q4 data report will be warmly welcomed for those calling for RBA cuts, with all headline data points coming in beneath expectations.

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January 31, 2024 01:31 AM
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Euro Forecast: EUR/USD Testing Key Support at 1.08 Ahead of Fed, NFP

EUR/USD is testing key support near 1.0800 with major crosswinds from month-end flows, the Fed, and NFP this week.

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January 29, 2024 07:57 PM

A complete guide to the Bank of Canada and interest rates

As with any central bank, when the Bank of Canada (BOC) changes interest rates, it can have a knock-on effect to stocks, indices and currencies. Find out everything you need to know about the BOC and how it’s decisions impact financial markets.

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January 22, 2024 12:00 AM
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Explainer: what are financial conditions and why they matter for traders?

This explainer looks at what determines financial conditions, the impact they have on markets and the real economy, along with the indicators you can watch to monitor how they’re evolving.

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December 21, 2023 11:38 PM

US CPI, FOMC, BOE, ECB and SNB on tap: The Week Ahead

Four major central banks meeting next week including the FOMC, ECB, BOE and SNB. While no changes are expected, traders want to know who may be the first to cut rates.

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December 7, 2023 02:56 AM
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2024 Market Outlook: US Dollar in Focus as Central Banks Pivot

Why the US dollar could benefit from fewer rate cuts than expected following a relatively quiet 2023...

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FOMC, BOJ and BOE on tap: The Week Ahead – 27/10/2023

We have a busy calendar with what would usually be ‘red flag’ days, including central bank meetings with the FOMC, BOJ and BOE. There’s a reasonable chance we’ll see no action across all three, but the bigger response for global markets could be if the BOJ widen or abandon their yield curve control (YCC).

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October 27, 2023 01:20 AM
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AUD/USD: Pops higher on RBA minutes scattered with hawkish tinges

The hawkish tone of the RBA’s October monetary policy minutes has caught markets by surprise, seeing the AUD pop higher against the USD and crosses.

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October 17, 2023 02:08 AM
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NZD/USD turns lower as the RBNZ hold rates once more

NZD/USD's break above 60c ahead of the RBNZ's announced that they held rates at 5.5% again was shortly lived, and momentum has turned decisively lower. Ans there could be further downside to come.

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AUD/USD, ASX 200 headwinds to persist with ‘higher for longer’ Fed rates: Asian Open

At the most basic level the Fed delivered what was expected; another policy pause with the potential for further hikes. The opening paragraph tipped noted an economy which is “expanding at a solid pace” with a slower but “strong” job growth and elevated inflation. There’s nothing remotely dovish there. And then we look at the numbers…

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September 20, 2023 10:42 PM

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US Dollar Analysis: Fed's Hawkish Hike Boosts Buck

The US dollar rises as the Fed still expects another rate hike and only two rate cuts next year

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September 20, 2023 07:23 PM
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EUR/USD implied volatility blows out ahead of ECB, US data: European open

With an ECB interest rate decision and three US data points sandwiched in between, we could be in for an interest hour's trade on EUR/USD. And that likely explains why the 1-day implied volatility band is more than twice its 20-day average.

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How central banks control money

Money supply is directly controlled by central banks of influential countries around the world. Learn how they decrease and increase money supply in this article.

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The RBNZ hold rates, AUD/USD breaks out ahead of US CPI

The RBNZ held their cash rate steady for the first time following 12 consecutive hikes, whilst AUD/USD broke above its 200-day MA ahead of a key US inflation report.

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AUD/USD, USD/CAD analysis: CPI reports for AUD and CAD traders in focus

Key inflation reports for Canada and Australia will be released over the next 24 hours which could have a direct impact on interest rate decisions for the BOC and RBA.

The Week Ahead: US Inflation, FOMC, ECB and BOJ meetings in focus

Three mighty central banks release their monetary policy decisions next week, starting with the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. But Tuesday’s inflation report could also carry some clout as it has the potential to move the needle between an anticipated pause to an undesired hike if it surprises too much to the upside.

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June 9, 2023 04:12 AM