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2024 Market Outlook: US Dollar in Focus as Central Banks Pivot
Why the US dollar could benefit from fewer rate cuts than expected following a relatively quiet 2023...
FOMC, BOJ and BOE on tap: The Week Ahead – 27/10/2023
We have a busy calendar with what would usually be ‘red flag’ days, including central bank meetings with the FOMC, BOJ and BOE. There’s a reasonable chance we’ll see no action across all three, but the bigger response for global markets could be if the BOJ widen or abandon their yield curve control (YCC).
AUD/USD: Pops higher on RBA minutes scattered with hawkish tinges
The hawkish tone of the RBA’s October monetary policy minutes has caught markets by surprise, seeing the AUD pop higher against the USD and crosses.
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NZD/USD turns lower as the RBNZ hold rates once more
NZD/USD's break above 60c ahead of the RBNZ's announced that they held rates at 5.5% again was shortly lived, and momentum has turned decisively lower. Ans there could be further downside to come.
AUD/USD, ASX 200 headwinds to persist with ‘higher for longer’ Fed rates: Asian Open
At the most basic level the Fed delivered what was expected; another policy pause with the potential for further hikes. The opening paragraph tipped noted an economy which is “expanding at a solid pace” with a slower but “strong” job growth and elevated inflation. There’s nothing remotely dovish there. And then we look at the numbers…
US Dollar Analysis: Fed's Hawkish Hike Boosts Buck
The US dollar rises as the Fed still expects another rate hike and only two rate cuts next year
EUR/USD implied volatility blows out ahead of ECB, US data: European open
With an ECB interest rate decision and three US data points sandwiched in between, we could be in for an interest hour's trade on EUR/USD. And that likely explains why the 1-day implied volatility band is more than twice its 20-day average.
How central banks control money
Money supply is directly controlled by central banks of influential countries around the world. Learn how they decrease and increase money supply in this article.
The RBNZ hold rates, AUD/USD breaks out ahead of US CPI
The RBNZ held their cash rate steady for the first time following 12 consecutive hikes, whilst AUD/USD broke above its 200-day MA ahead of a key US inflation report.
AUD/USD, USD/CAD analysis: CPI reports for AUD and CAD traders in focus
Key inflation reports for Canada and Australia will be released over the next 24 hours which could have a direct impact on interest rate decisions for the BOC and RBA.
The Week Ahead: US Inflation, FOMC, ECB and BOJ meetings in focus
Three mighty central banks release their monetary policy decisions next week, starting with the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. But Tuesday’s inflation report could also carry some clout as it has the potential to move the needle between an anticipated pause to an undesired hike if it surprises too much to the upside.
AUD/USD Analysis: Are the RBA on track for another hike?
A hot inflation report and hefty wage increase for minimum-wage earners has seen a rise in bets the RBA could hike at tomorrow’s meeting.
The history of money
Learn about the full history of money to see how currency evolved from barter systems to bitcoin. In this timeline, we go deep on the evolution of money including the development of banking establishments and the future of cashless societies.
European Open: BOE and SNB could be live meetings today
With the FOMC meeting in the rear view mirror, the focus now shifts to Europe where the UK and SNB announce their interest rate decisions.
European Open: BOJ members discussed tweaking YCC, Jan minutes reveal
So the BOJ have indeed been discussing potential tweaks to one of their major policies, although that is not to say any of it will happen soon (if at all) before being scrapped
European Open: Currencies tread water ahead of Jerome Powell speech
The USD pulled back yet mostly held on to its post-NFP gains in anticipation of a hawkish speech from Jerome Powell this evening.
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Another 25bp hawkish hike from the RBA
The RBA hiked the overnight cash rate by 25bp to 3.35% - its highest level since September 2012 – and warned of further increases in the months ahead.
The RBA are expected to hike by 25bp tomorrow
Whilst money markets favour a 25bp hike tomorrow, we shouldn’t discount the potential for a 15bp or even a 50bp hike.
European Open: EUR/GBP probes YTD high ahead of BOE and ECB meetings
With the Fed having delivered their 25bp yesterday, it is now over to the BOE ECB today, who are expected to hike by 100bp between them.
Fed fund pricing calls bulldust on Fed hike(s)
Whilst the Fed effectively confirmed two more 25bp hikes to are to follow, Fed fund futures remain unconvinced and are pricing in a single hike to take rates to 5%.
Market pricing and economists favour a 25bp hike from the BOC tomorrow
Market pricing and the consensus among economists firmly points towards a 25bp hike from the BOC tomorrow.