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S&P 500 Forecast: SPX inches higher ahead of Powell

US stocks are set to open modestly higher in cautious trade ahead of a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. US treasury yields rose to the highest level since November, a day after stronger-than-expected US retail sales data, which could limit the upside for stocks. Earnings from Bank of America and Morgan Stanley were better than expected.

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Yesterday 02:15 PM
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Dow Jones Forecast: DJIA rises as risk sentiment improves

US stocks are set to open higher on Monday after steep losses last week. Following an attack by Iran on Israel over the weekend and comments from the US that it will not support a retaliatory attack by Israel, the market has calmed. Geopolitical developments will remain a key focus this week. US retail sales came in stronger than forecast, supporting the view that the Fed will keep rates high for longer. Goldman Sachs is set to rise after earnings.

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April 15, 2024 02:14 PM
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S&P500 Forecast: SPX falls as banks kick off Q1 earnings season

US stocks open lower as traders have plenty to worry about- rising concerns over geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, hotter-than-expected inflation this week, and some disappointment from the banks as they kick off earnings season. Riskier assets such as stocks are under pressure amid fears that Iran could attack Israel this weekend. Meanwhile, safe haven Gold rose to a fresh record high, and the USD rallies.

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April 12, 2024 02:38 PM

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DJIA Forecast: DJIA recovers some losses after PPI data

US stocks have steadied after yesterday's deep selloff. Mixed PPI data appears to have taken the edge off yesterday's hotter-than-forecast inflation data. US PPI eased by more than expected on a monthly basis but rose by more than expected on an annual basis. Meanwhile, US jobless claims were relatively unmoved, highlighting the ongoing resilience in the labour market. Elsewhere, the ECB left interest rates on hold at 4%.

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April 11, 2024 02:11 PM
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S&P 500 Forecast: SPX tumbles after hotter inflation

US stocks are falling sharply after US inflation was hotter than expected, raising doubts over the Fed's ability to cut rates early. The market is now pricing in two rate cuts this year, down from three just a few weeks ago. The first-rate cut is fully priced in for September, pushed back from July. Followig the data US treasury yields and the USD rose and stocks have slumped.

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April 10, 2024 03:04 PM
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Dow Jones Forecast: DJIA flat ahead of tomorrow's inflation data

US stocks are set for another flat session as investors sit on the sidelines ahead of tomorrow's inflation data. CPI is expected to rise to 3.4% YoY from 3.2% and could raise further doubts over the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates this year. The market is pricing in a 50/50 probability of a rate cut in June and expects rates to be cut by 60 basis points across the year, down from 75 basis points just a few weeks ago.

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April 9, 2024 02:15 PM
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Nasdaq 100 Forecast: QQQ muted as bond yields rise

US stocks are pointing to a quiet start after losses last week and as US treasury yields rise. Strong US jobs data and manufacturing reports from last week have seen the market rein in Fed rate cut expectations. The market is now pricing in just a 49% probability of rate cut in June, down from 58% a week ago. There is no major data release today. Looking ahead of CPI and the FOMC minutes will be in focus.

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April 8, 2024 01:58 PM
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Nasdaq Forecast: QQQ rises despite the strong NFP report

US stocks are set to open higher despite rising treasury yields after a stronger-than-expected NFP report. 303K jobs were added in March, smashing forecasts of 200k and raising questions over whether the Fed will be able to cut interest rates three times this year. The market is now fully pricing in the first rate cut in September rather than July. Oil is set to rise 4% across the week amid rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

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April 5, 2024 02:34 PM
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Dow Jones Forecast: DJIA rises post-Powell and as jobless claims rise

US stocks point to a higher open after Federal Reserve Chair Powell's speech yesterday and following a rise in jobless claims. Initial claims rose by 9k to 221k, up from 212k ahead of tomorrow's non-farm payroll report. The data comes after Fed Chair Powell reassured the market that the Fed supports cutting rates this year but that more evidence of cooling inflation was needed.

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April 4, 2024 02:17 PM
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Nasdaq Forecast: QQQ stocks fall after stronger ADP payrolls & ahead of Powell's speech

US d=stocks point to a softer open after data highlights the resilience of the US economy. ADP payrolls rose 180k, up from 140k and ahead of forecasts. The data came after factory orders and JOLTS job openings, which were also stronger than anticipated. The persistent strength of the economy raises questions over whether the Fed can cut rares three times this year. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak shortly.

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April 3, 2024 02:18 PM
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Dow Jones Forecast: DJIA stocks fall as treasury yields rise

US stocks are pointing to a weaker open, extending losses from the previous session as Treasury yields rise and ahead of several Fed speakers. US treasury yields have ticked higher after stronger-than-expected manufacturing PMIs from the US and China and as oil prices have risen to a 5-month high, suggesting that inflation could remain sticky. Federal Reserve speakers could provide more insight into when the Fed could start to cut rates.

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April 2, 2024 02:15 PM
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S&P 500 Forecast: SPX subdued at the end of a strong Q1

US stocks are almost unchanged, hovering around record highs as investors weigh up an upward revision to US Q4 GDP and hawkish comments from Fe Governor Christopher Waller. Waller warned that the Fed was in no rush to cut rates. US Q4 GDP was upwardly revised to 3.4% annualized. Today is the final trading day of the first quarter which has seen 10% gains.

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March 28, 2024 01:26 PM
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Dow Jones Forecast: DJIA stocks drift higher amid a light calendar

US stocks are set to rise on the open, helped higher by rises in AI stocks and amid a quiet economic calendar. Attention will be on Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, who is due to speak later. Otherwise, the main focus is Friday's core PCE data, which comes when the market is closed for the Good Friday holiday. Today oil prices are falling 1% after oil inventories rose sharply.

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March 27, 2024 01:14 PM
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Nasdaq Forecast: QQQ rises, boosted by chipmakers

US stocks are set to open higher, boosted by chipmakers, and as investors weigh up diverging Fed views over the scale of rate cuts this year. While Raphael Bostic sees just one rate cut this year, Austan Goolsbee sees three rate cuts in 2024, The spotlight will be on US core PCE data on Friday, which could provide more clues over the Fed's future path for rate cuts. Today, US durable goods orders rose more than expected.

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March 26, 2024 01:30 PM
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S&P 500 Forecast: SPX falls ahead of US inflation data, Fed speakers

US stocks are set to drift lower on the open after record highs last week. Stocks rallied on expectations that the Fed will start to cut interest rates in June and will squeeze in 75 basis points of rate cuts this year. Attention is on core PCE inflation data on Friday and several Fed speakers across the week, which could give more clues on the future path for rate cuts.

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March 25, 2024 01:05 PM
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Dow Jones Forecast: DJIA rises to record high after the Fed boosts rate cut bets

US stocks are opening at fresh record highs, extending yesterday's rally after the Fed bolstered rate cut bets. The US Central Bank left rates on hold, upwardly revised the inflation outlook, and maintained its guidance for 3 rate cuts this year, surprising the market. The Fed doesn't appear to be concerned by two months of hotter-than-forecast inflation. Chip stocks are leading the rally and Reddit will start trading today on the NYSE.

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March 21, 2024 01:42 PM
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Dow Jones Forecast: DJIA slips ahead of the Fed rate decision

US stocks are heading for a mixed start, with the Dow Jones falling modestly and the Nasdaq 100 inching higher ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. Policymakers are expected to leave rates on hold. Instead, the focus will be on the projections and the tone. After two straight months of hotter-than-forecast inflation, Fed Chair Powell could adopt a more hawkish tone, pushing back rate cut bets. A more hawkish Fed could hurt demand for equities and boost the USD.

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March 20, 2024 12:50 PM

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S&P 500 Forecast: SPX falls on caution ahead of the Fed meeting

US stocks point lower, and nerves start to show as the FOMC's two-day meeting kicks off. The market is fully pricing in that the Fed will leave rates unchanged, but it has also pushed back on when the Fed could start rate cuts. The possibility of a rate cut in June is being priced in at a little over 50/50, which has lifted the USD and is dragging on demand for stocks. Nvidia falls after the unveiling of its latest AI chip failed to attract more buyers into the stock.

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March 19, 2024 12:39 PM
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Nasdaq 100 Forecast: QQQ rises on Google, Apple AI chatter

US stocks are pointing to a stronger open, with tech stocks outperforming. Reports that Alphabet's Google and Apple are in talks to include Google's AI Gemini feature in iPhones has boosted the mood. Nvidia's annual developers conference will also kick off today. While tech news is lifting the mood, attention is also on the Federal Reserve interest rate decision on Wednesday, where the Fed could adopt a more hawkish stance given the sticky nature of inflation.

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March 18, 2024 01:11 PM
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Dow Jones Forecast: DJIA falls on inflation worries

US stocks fall after sticky inflation data this week has raised concerns the Fed may keep rates high for longer. The Fed is not expected to cut rates next week but could downwardly revise its dot plot from three rate cuts in 2024 forecast in December to 2 cuts. The USD is on track for a weekly gain as the Fed could turn more hawkish. Oil is set to rise 3% across the week on signs that the market is tightening.

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March 15, 2024 02:21 PM
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Dow Jones Forecast: DJIA pares gains after hotter PPI

US futures have pared gains after PPI data highlighted the sticky nature of inflation and raised questions about whether the Fed will be able to cut rates three times this year. The data comes after CPI earlier in the week was also hotter than expected. The market has adjusted its June rate-cut bets, but not by a significant margin, which is keeping stocks elevated. Oil extends gains after a bullish IEA oil market report.

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March 14, 2024 01:10 PM
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NASDAQ 100 Forecast: QQQ muted ahead of more data tomorrow

US stocks point to a muted start after yesterday's rally. Investors have shrugged off hotter-than-forecast inflation and remain firm that the Fed will cut rates in the June meeting. US economic data is in short supply today. Attention will be on retail sales and producer prices later in the week. Oil prices pop on an upbeat demand outlook from OPEC.

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March 13, 2024 01:20 PM
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S&P 500 Forecast: SPX rises despite hotter-than-expected inflation

US stocks point to a higher start despite US inflation and core inflation coming in hotter than expected. The sticky inflation reading raises questions over whether the Federal Reserve will be able to cut rates three times this year, as indicated in the dot plot in December. While stocks are rising, gains could be limited. The USD is edging higher after the data. Oil struggles for direction ahead of the OPEC monthly market report.

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March 12, 2024 01:10 PM