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US dollar analysis: DXY extends recovery - Forex Friday

Dollar is supported by better-than-expected US data and unexpected dovish moves from certain central banks outside of the US. The Fed was also dovish, but it is all about inflation data moving forward. Next week’s macro highlights include CPI data from Australia and Japan and core PCE from the US. Dollar Index technical analysis points higher – for now.

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Interest Rate Shock: What Happens If the Fed Hikes Instead of Cuts?

Traders are pricing in a small, but non-zero, chance of a Fed rate hike in 2024. Those odds could grow with a couple more hotter-than-expected inflation reports.

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March 4, 2024 07:53 PM
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US Dollar analysis: More inflation data looming - Forex Friday

Dollar Index was testing a key support level as focus turns to PPI inflation after a hot CPI earlier this week. US dollar was hurt by weak retail sales on Thursday, but rising import costs is inflationary. The week ahead features global PMIs among a handful of other macro data releases.

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Dollar and EUR/USD analysis – February 7, 2024

Dollar weakness is lacking fundamental justification, with the Dollar Index looking to bounce back as it tests key support, while EUR/USD is back to probe broken support at 1.0780, which could turn into resistance.

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February 7, 2024 03:30 PM
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EUR/USD and US Dollar analysis: Technical Tuesday – February 6, 2024

In this shortened edition of Technical Tuesday, we will get technical on the EUR/USD analysis as the pair continues to show bearish price characteristics, while the Dollar Index is continuing to push higher following robust data and hawkish Fed signals.

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US dollar analysis: NFP trounces expectations - Forex Friday

NFP trounces expectations at +353K vs. +185K expected. USD/JPY and bond yields jump, gold drops .Light macro events in week ahead.

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Gold and Dollar analysis: Forex Friday – January 26, 2024

Thanks to the positive risk tone across financial markets, the US dollar has struggled to hold onto its gains made in response to mostly positive data showing a resilient economy. Yet, it hasn’t sold off either, with many traders expecting the FOMC and its Chairman Jerome Powell to push back against early rate cut bets next week. For this exact reason, gold has been unable to find any lasting support, with traders happy to take quick profits in either direction.

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EUR/USD and dollar analysis: Forex Friday – January 19, 2024

EUR/USD is holding above the 200-day average amid improved risk appetite with Nasdaq hitting a record high. The US dollar rally pauses ahead of UoM Consumer Sentiment survey, and next week’s key events that include include the ECB rate decision, global PMIs, US GDP and core PCE price index.

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January 19, 2024 12:30 PM
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Dollar and Gold analysis: Forex Friday – January 12, 2024

The big news so far today has been centred around geopolitical risks in the Middle East after military strikes by air and sea targeted 16 Houthi positions overnight. The news sent crude oil up 2.5% and gold found haven flows to climb more than 1% to above $2050. The US dollar was finding a bit of support on haven demand after failing to hold onto its gains the day before, despite a stronger-than-expected inflation report.

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Dollar, EUR/USD analysis: FX markets show limited CPI response

Dollar gets modest boost on hot inflation, as CPI prints 3.4% y/y instead of 3.2% for December. EUR/USD holds between key 1.09 support and 1.10 resistance, supported by hawkish ECB comments.

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January 11, 2024 05:00 PM
Research

Dollar analysis: Dollar Index, AUD/USD outlook in focus

Probability of March Fed cut drops on stronger jobs signals ahead of NFP. Dollar Index was testing a key resistance area at the time of writing, so there was the potential for a bearish reversal. Keep a close eye on the Aussie, euro and yuan.

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January 4, 2024 03:50 PM
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Dollar analysis: FOMC and key data puts greenback in sharp focus

The resilience of US data we have seen over the past couple of weeks hasn’t led to any further appreciation in interest rate expectations, keeping the dollar in an overall holding pattern with a slight bullish tilt, especially against the weaker currencies like the JPY and EUR. But the likes of the AUD and previously CHF have shown some resilience, perhaps suggesting that most of the positivity may be priced in for the greenback.

November 1, 2023 04:29 PM
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Dollar analysis: DXY, EUR/USD outlook in focus – Forex Friday

It has been a tumultuous and eventful week for the global financial markets. The ongoing situation in the Middle East has triggered a surge of volatility in the oil and stock markets, compelling investors to re-evaluate their strategies and shift their focus from riskier assets to “safer” investments.

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S&P 500 and Dollar Index Analysis - Technical Tuesday

Welcome to another edition of Technical Tuesday. In this week’s report, we will get technical on the S&P 500 and Dollar Index. The benchmark index has bounced back as investors' focus turns to FOMC minutes, CPI and Consumer Sentiment, with US bank earnings also to start on Friday. Meanwhile, the Dollar Index chart shows a potential reversal signal ahead of all these events.

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Q4 US Dollar Outlook: US Economic Exceptionalism to End?

The US dollar has surged on US economic exceptionalism so far this year, but that trend may change in Q4...

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Dollar analysis: EUR/USD, GBP/USD and Yields in focus – Forex Friday

Welcome to another edition of Forex Friday, a weekly report in which we highlight selected currency themes. In this week’s report, we will focus the US dollar, EUR/USD and GBP/USD. The dollar index eyes March high and set to close higher for 10th consecutive week, with BoJ inaction and rising crude oil prices providing additional boost for greenback.

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Dollar analysis: EUR/USD, DXY and Gold in focus - Technical Tuesday

Welcome to Technical Tuesday, a weekly report where we highlight some of the most interesting markets that will hopefully appease technical analysts and traders alike. In this edition of Technical Tuesday, we will analyse the EUR/USD, Gold and the Dollar Index.

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Dollar Analysis: EUR/USD, GBP/USD and DXY in focus - Forex Friday

Welcome to another edition of Forex Friday, a weekly report in which we highlight selected currency themes. In this week’s report, we will focus the US dollar, EUR/USD and GBP/USD ahead of next week’s key events: FOMC and BoE rate decisions.

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September 15, 2023 12:30 PM
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Dollar analysis: DXY, EUR/USD, Gold and USD/CAD in focus – Forex Friday

Welcome to another edition of Forex Friday, a weekly report in which we highlight selected currency themes. In this week’s report, we will focus the US dollar, gold, USD/CAD and EUR/USD, ahead of next week’s key events: US CPI and ECB policy decision.

Dollar analysis: EUR/USD and DXY approaching key levels - Forex Friday

Welcome to another edition of Forex Friday, a weekly report in which we highlight selected currency themes. In this week’s report, we will focus on the US dollar analysis, and provide updates on the EUR/USD outlook, before looking ahead to the next week, when we have global PMI data and the start of the Jackson Hole summit.

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August 18, 2023 05:16 PM
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Dollar analysis: EUR/USD, USD/CHF, USD/JPY outlook – Forex Friday

The US dollar was coming under a bit of pressure in the first half of Friday’s session, but after Thursday’s sharp rally it remained to be seen if the selling had any real momentum behind it. The Fed’s favorite inflation measure – core PCE – came in a touch softer but this was offset by a stronger-than-expected personal spending data. Investors were looking forward to another very busy week for macro data and central banks.

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Dollar analysis: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD outlook – Forex Friday

Welcome to another edition of Forex Friday, a weekly report in which we discuss selected currency themes mainly from a macro viewpoint, but we also throw in a pinch of technical analysis here and there. In this week’s report, we will discuss a couple of dollar pairs and look forward to next week’s key events affecting the currency markets.

Dollar outlook: DXY, USD/CHF and USD/JPY analysis ahead of CPI

While it is down now, the US dollar outlook is subject to change depending on the outlook of the data.