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Fed meeting preview: Dollar Index at 1-month lows ahead of tight decision

We agree with the market’s expectation that Jerome Powell and company are likely to deliver a 25bps interest rate hike this month, though we certainly wouldn’t be shocked to see the central bank hold fire for now.

Research

US retail sales recap: Recession, Reschmession

The previously omnipresent calls for a 2023 recession in the US are looking more and more wrong by the day.

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Dollar strengthens ahead of US retail sales

Investors are pricing in a higher terminal interest rate in the US

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Markets in holding pattern as traders eye US CPI

…once again the focus is going to be on inflation and central bank speech.

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February 13, 2023 01:35 PM
Research

Will Powell disappoint dollar die-hards?

Futures markets now tally with many Fed policymakers for the first time this year, accepting the Fed's "terminal rate" will be above 5%...

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February 7, 2023 01:57 PM
Research

Dollar extends rally

That surprise 500-thousand-plus job gains we saw on Friday means the market may gravitate towards “higher for longer” narrative

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February 6, 2023 12:00 PM
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Dollar could rebound as DXY tests major support

The EUR/USD, GBP/USD and commodity dollars could all fall back if sentiment towards risk remains subdued.

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December 21, 2022 11:29 AM
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Technical Tuesday: S&P 500, Dollar Index, GBP/USD and Gold

In this week’s edition, we are getting technical on the Dollar Index, S&P 500, GBP/USD and gold

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Dollar rebounds on China, faces busy week

Are we about to see a more profound dollar recovery?

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November 28, 2022 04:56 PM
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Dollar index clings onto bull trend ahead of CPI

CPI is way too high for the Fed to ease off the gas.

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November 10, 2022 12:10 PM
Research

FOMC meeting preview: Fed expected to hike 75bps, but is the pivot imminent?

The stakes couldn’t be higher for this month’s FOMC meeting - see why!

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November 1, 2022 02:30 PM
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US Dollar retreats further ahead of US CPI

Barring a very low print, today’s CPI report is unlikely to significantly impact expectations around Fed tightening.

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September 13, 2022 11:47 AM
Research

Whilst inflation may have peaked, the ‘Nowcast’ seems less certain

We saw some strong moves overnight following signs that inflation may have peaked, but a glance at the Cleveland Fed’s Nowcast places a fly in the ointment.

US CPI recap: A turning point in the inflation debate?

If the “peak inflation” theme gathers steam in the coming weeks, we may look back at today’s inflation reading as a major turning point for the year-to-date market trends.

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August 10, 2022 01:55 PM
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US CPI preview: Are we past peak inflation?

Headline inflation reading may show price pressures fading while the Fed’s preferred “core” (ex-energy and food) CPI measure shows that underlying inflation is still rising

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August 8, 2022 05:29 PM
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Forex Friday: DXY and USD/CAD in focus

In this week’s edition, we discuss the dollar and its impressive rally and the Canadian dollar.

Rocket taking off on a bright day

US dollar surges as US short-term yields hit 22-month highs

It’s clear that investors are more confident than ever that the Federal Reserve will seek to “normalize” monetary policy in 2022, paving the way for US dollar strength

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January 3, 2022 05:30 PM

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NFP early insight: COVID waning, employees’ negotiating power waxing?

The latest data on the pandemic shows US cases declining sharply after peaking in the middle of September, suggesting that travel-sensitive industries may flip back into growth mode sooner rather than later...

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October 4, 2021 05:46 PM