News and analysis

USD/JPY falls post-CPI & with jobless claims up next. DAX reaches record high as US CPI euphoria spreads.

US jobless claims data will garner far more interest than usual later Thursday as traders assess whether last week’s unusually large increase was an anomaly or start of a new trend. Testing a key level on the charts, two-way risk created by the data makes GBP/USD a pair to keep on the radar.

On Tuesday I outlined a bullish case for bitcoin futures whilst prices remained above $60k. One soft US CPI and retail sales report later, bullish range expansion has most certainly kicked in.

With unemployment spiking and broader measures of labour market slack increasing, the risk of strong wages growth sparking renewed inflationary pressures looks to have past.

The US dollar suffered its worst day of the year and Fed fund futures now imply with near certainty that the Fed will cut by September. And that saw AUD/USD breakout in style and USD/JPY roll over, breaking below two handles on Wednesday.

With US economic data delivering negative surprises at rates not seen over a year, with signs disinflationary forces are growing, it’s time for a rethink on the outlook for the US dollar. The era of selling rips rather than buying dips may be upon us.

Following the release of more disappointing US data, silver now looks poised to hit that key $30 level and potentially rise far beyond that level, if the recent gains by gold and copper are anything to go by.

The 1-2 combination of soft CPI and retail sales has driven EUR/USD higher and sent the DAX to fresh record highs.

Crude Oil Analysis: supply and demand metrics lie at a critical juncture with OPEC meeting expectations leaning towards an unchanged policy