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AUD monthly wrap: December 2023

AUD/USD was the strongest performer among the Aussie pairs we track in November. A combination of hawkish RBA alongside bets of Fed cuts in 2024 played nicely with our long bias. What will December bring?

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AUD/USD rises as RBA min retain hawkish bias, USD/JPY, USD/CNH slide continues

There was a risk that the RBA’s minutes were more hawkish than their November statement had let on, and this certainly seems to be the case. And hawkish minutes alongside a lower USD/CNH and USD/JPY have helped AUD/USD test a new cycle high today. Can it now gun for 66?

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November 21, 2023 01:47 AM

Bond auctions could trump data next week: The Week Ahead

In what seems like a while, the US economic calendar is relatively quiet with no top tier events. But US bond auctions should be on trader’s radars as they provide a look at how strong demand is (or not) for the ultimate US safe-haven asset. And if demand is low, it could send yields higher and shake a few equity bulls out of the tree and generally weigh on risk sentiment. We also have the RBA minutes and a potentially ‘live’ speech for the governor to keep tabs on.

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November 17, 2023 03:32 AM

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AUD/USD: Tumbles as RBA rate hike bets slashed, eyes fresh 2023 lows

Tumbling US stock futures and neutral language from RBA Governor Michele Bullock has seen AUD/USD plunge in early Asian trade, continuing the sizeable reversal seen on Wednesday following the release of Australia’s Q3 hot inflation report.

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October 25, 2023 11:59 PM

AUD/USD higher, ASX 200 lower as hot inflation bolsters RBA rate hike bets

Australian inflation has come in hot in Q3, seeing the odds for a RBA rate hike in November lift to 60%. The AUD/USD has moved higher while the ASX 200 has reversed earlier gains, turning negative for the session.

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October 25, 2023 02:10 AM
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AUD/USD, ASX 200: A quick guide on what to watch in today’s Australian inflation report

When you look back through the history books, no other economic data release is more important for the AUD and ASX than Australia’s quarterly consumer price inflation report. Today will be no exception.

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October 24, 2023 10:45 PM

AUD/JPY, WTI crude oil: Israel-Hamas conflict, inflation reports to set the tone

Geopolitics, inflation reports and sentiment towards Chinese markets will likely dominate proceedings for AUD/JPY and crude oil this week, putting their respective uptrends to the test during a time when investor risk appetite is particularly weak.

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October 23, 2023 12:13 AM
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AUD/USD, ASX 200: Australia’s jobs report takes on greater significance for the RBA rate outlook

Australia’s September jobs report is arguably the most important G10 FX data release in the world on Thursday, ensuring there’ll be significant interest among AUD/USD and ASX 200 traders.

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October 18, 2023 11:23 PM

AUD/USD: Monthly indicators in China’s ‘data dump’ to dictate direction

The tentative rebound in the AUD/USD faces its next hurdle today with the release of China’s monthly ‘data dump’, including Q3 GDP.

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October 18, 2023 12:58 AM
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AUD/USD: Pops higher on RBA minutes scattered with hawkish tinges

The hawkish tone of the RBA’s October monetary policy minutes has caught markets by surprise, seeing the AUD pop higher against the USD and crosses.

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October 17, 2023 02:08 AM

AUD/USD, AUD/JPY: Softening macro backdrop, BOJ threat amplify downside risks

The combination of a deteriorating macroeconomic backdrop, the first monetary policy decision from a new RBA governor and threat of market intervention from the Bank of Japan has created an interesting mix for the AUD/JPY.

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October 3, 2023 04:00 AM

AUD/USD: focus on underlying inflation, fade moves on headline volatility

In an environment of heightened risk aversion, sluggish global economic growth and continued grind higher in rates, a volatile monthly inflation indicator from Australia doesn’t scream as overly important.

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September 27, 2023 12:11 AM
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AUD/USD: Australia’s jobs report has few implications for RBA despite jobs surge

Australia’s August labour force survey had something for both AUD/USD bulls and bears, but in the end the detail does not meaningfully change the outlook for interest rates.

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September 14, 2023 03:26 AM
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AUD/USD: Price action suggests bearish sentiment nearing exhaustion point

AUD/USD downside has slowed despite a lot of negativity, bolstering the case for a near-term bounce ahead of key risk events later this week.

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September 11, 2023 03:44 AM
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AUD/USD: China sentiment in the driving seat as RBA settles in for extended pause

With the RBA on the sidelines, it means external factors will continue to drive movements in the AUD, ASX 200 and Australian bond futures for the foreseeable future.

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September 5, 2023 06:43 AM
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AUD/USD, ASX 200: growing risk of RBA turning neutral on interest rates

A playbook on how the AUD/USD, ASX 200 and Australian bonds should the RBA signal an end to rate hikes.

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September 4, 2023 02:37 AM
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AUD/USD bounce fizzles as droopy data lessens RBA rate hike risks

AUD/USD slumps on disappointing data, undermining the case for higher interest rates

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August 30, 2023 03:28 AM

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Hang Seng downside break eyes retest of 2022 lows

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is arguably the ugliest index chart in the world right now, for good reason.

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August 22, 2023 04:50 AM
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ASX 200: higher bond yields generating valuation headwinds

Australian stocks don't look particularly cheap, adding to downside risks from earnings disappointments.

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August 22, 2023 01:54 AM
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AUD/USD tumbles again as jobs market softens

Unemployment jumps unexpectedly diminishing the risk of a wage price spiral forming.

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August 17, 2023 03:40 AM
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AUD/USD hits fresh lows as bearish sentiment towards China’s economy intensifies

No matter how you slice or dice it, negatives for the AUD/USD continue to pile up.

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August 16, 2023 02:28 AM

AUD/USD, USD/CNH whipsawed as PBOC cuts rates

USD/CNH rallies as the PBOC unexpectedly cuts wholesale interest rates. AUD/USD gains on stimulus hopes.

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August 15, 2023 04:16 AM

USD/JPY: 145 breached yet BOJ intervention seems unlikely

USD/JPY is back to levels where the BOJ intervened last year but that doesn't mean it will do so again.

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August 8, 2023 01:08 AM