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AUD monthly wrap: December 2023
AUD/USD was the strongest performer among the Aussie pairs we track in November. A combination of hawkish RBA alongside bets of Fed cuts in 2024 played nicely with our long bias. What will December bring?
AUD/USD rises as RBA min retain hawkish bias, USD/JPY, USD/CNH slide continues
There was a risk that the RBA’s minutes were more hawkish than their November statement had let on, and this certainly seems to be the case. And hawkish minutes alongside a lower USD/CNH and USD/JPY have helped AUD/USD test a new cycle high today. Can it now gun for 66?
Bond auctions could trump data next week: The Week Ahead
In what seems like a while, the US economic calendar is relatively quiet with no top tier events. But US bond auctions should be on trader’s radars as they provide a look at how strong demand is (or not) for the ultimate US safe-haven asset. And if demand is low, it could send yields higher and shake a few equity bulls out of the tree and generally weigh on risk sentiment. We also have the RBA minutes and a potentially ‘live’ speech for the governor to keep tabs on.
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AUD/USD: Tumbles as RBA rate hike bets slashed, eyes fresh 2023 lows
Tumbling US stock futures and neutral language from RBA Governor Michele Bullock has seen AUD/USD plunge in early Asian trade, continuing the sizeable reversal seen on Wednesday following the release of Australia’s Q3 hot inflation report.
AUD/USD higher, ASX 200 lower as hot inflation bolsters RBA rate hike bets
Australian inflation has come in hot in Q3, seeing the odds for a RBA rate hike in November lift to 60%. The AUD/USD has moved higher while the ASX 200 has reversed earlier gains, turning negative for the session.
AUD/USD, ASX 200: A quick guide on what to watch in today’s Australian inflation report
When you look back through the history books, no other economic data release is more important for the AUD and ASX than Australia’s quarterly consumer price inflation report. Today will be no exception.
AUD/JPY, WTI crude oil: Israel-Hamas conflict, inflation reports to set the tone
Geopolitics, inflation reports and sentiment towards Chinese markets will likely dominate proceedings for AUD/JPY and crude oil this week, putting their respective uptrends to the test during a time when investor risk appetite is particularly weak.
AUD/USD, ASX 200: Australia’s jobs report takes on greater significance for the RBA rate outlook
Australia’s September jobs report is arguably the most important G10 FX data release in the world on Thursday, ensuring there’ll be significant interest among AUD/USD and ASX 200 traders.
AUD/USD: Monthly indicators in China’s ‘data dump’ to dictate direction
The tentative rebound in the AUD/USD faces its next hurdle today with the release of China’s monthly ‘data dump’, including Q3 GDP.
AUD/USD: Pops higher on RBA minutes scattered with hawkish tinges
The hawkish tone of the RBA’s October monetary policy minutes has caught markets by surprise, seeing the AUD pop higher against the USD and crosses.
AUD/USD, AUD/JPY: Softening macro backdrop, BOJ threat amplify downside risks
The combination of a deteriorating macroeconomic backdrop, the first monetary policy decision from a new RBA governor and threat of market intervention from the Bank of Japan has created an interesting mix for the AUD/JPY.
AUD/USD: focus on underlying inflation, fade moves on headline volatility
In an environment of heightened risk aversion, sluggish global economic growth and continued grind higher in rates, a volatile monthly inflation indicator from Australia doesn’t scream as overly important.
AUD/USD: Australia’s jobs report has few implications for RBA despite jobs surge
Australia’s August labour force survey had something for both AUD/USD bulls and bears, but in the end the detail does not meaningfully change the outlook for interest rates.
AUD/USD: Price action suggests bearish sentiment nearing exhaustion point
AUD/USD downside has slowed despite a lot of negativity, bolstering the case for a near-term bounce ahead of key risk events later this week.
AUD/USD: China sentiment in the driving seat as RBA settles in for extended pause
With the RBA on the sidelines, it means external factors will continue to drive movements in the AUD, ASX 200 and Australian bond futures for the foreseeable future.
AUD/USD, ASX 200: growing risk of RBA turning neutral on interest rates
A playbook on how the AUD/USD, ASX 200 and Australian bonds should the RBA signal an end to rate hikes.
AUD/USD bounce fizzles as droopy data lessens RBA rate hike risks
AUD/USD slumps on disappointing data, undermining the case for higher interest rates
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Hang Seng downside break eyes retest of 2022 lows
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is arguably the ugliest index chart in the world right now, for good reason.
ASX 200: higher bond yields generating valuation headwinds
Australian stocks don't look particularly cheap, adding to downside risks from earnings disappointments.
AUD/USD tumbles again as jobs market softens
Unemployment jumps unexpectedly diminishing the risk of a wage price spiral forming.
AUD/USD hits fresh lows as bearish sentiment towards China’s economy intensifies
No matter how you slice or dice it, negatives for the AUD/USD continue to pile up.
AUD/USD, USD/CNH whipsawed as PBOC cuts rates
USD/CNH rallies as the PBOC unexpectedly cuts wholesale interest rates. AUD/USD gains on stimulus hopes.
USD/JPY: 145 breached yet BOJ intervention seems unlikely
USD/JPY is back to levels where the BOJ intervened last year but that doesn't mean it will do so again.