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Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Breaks Out, Tests 2024 High

AUD/USD is benefitting from speculation about another interest rate hike from the RBA after a higher-than-expected CPI report and strong retail sales figure - see the key levels to watch from here!


AUD/USD outlook: RBA mins point to quarterly CPI figures for policy clues

Concerns that headline employment figures could be lagging a worse picture alongside a lack of updated service inflation figures prompted the RBA to hold rates in June. And that makes the quarterly CPI report in a few weeks all the more important.

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July 2, 2024 06:00 AM

Another ugly inflation surprise ignites risk of August RBA hike

There is now little doubt underlying inflationary pressures in Australia are accelerating again, increasing the risk the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will be forced to hike interest rates again for the first time since November. AUD/USD, Australian bond yields surge while ASX 200 tanks.

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June 26, 2024 03:44 AM

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AUD/JPY nears 2013 high, focus shifts to Australian inflation report

A relatively hawkish meeting from the RBA has supported AUD over the past 24 hours, sent AUD/JPY to an 11-year high and made next week's inflation report the more important.

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June 19, 2024 04:38 AM
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AUD/USD squeezing higher as RBA tone shifts more hawkish

The RBA has evidence to justify continued vigilance towards continued upside inflation surprises, vowing it will do what it is necessary to bring it back to the 2.5% midpoint of its inflation target. But it’s not yet compelling enough to warrant hiking rates, choosing to retain a neutral bias in June.

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June 18, 2024 07:33 AM

BOE, SNB, RBA meetings, flash PMIs in focus: The Week Ahead

For the first week in a while, US data is not dominating the market focus. With a key US inflation report and FOMC meeting freshly in the rear-view mirror, markets can now shift attention to domestic data. Three top-tier central banks meet next week, including the RBA on Tuesday, followed by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and Bank of England (BOE) on Thursday. UK inflation data on Wednesday could set the tone for what to expect at future BOE meetings. Flash PMIs across Asia, Europe, and the US then close out the week, which can shape expectations for future growth and inflationary pressures.

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June 14, 2024 02:11 AM

AUD/USD, ASX 200: Watching for hawkish overtones in the RBA minutes

The performance of mainland Chinese stock indices and minutes from the RBA May monetary policy meeting should be on the radar for anyone trading AUD/USD or ASX 200 futures on Tuesday. With little top tier data or event risk to navigate, they loom as the most likely drivers of Australian financial markets.

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May 21, 2024 12:32 AM

AUD/USD, AUD/JPY: Soft jobs report extinguishes risk of further RBA rate hikes

With unemployment spiking and broader measures of labour market slack increasing, the risk of strong wages growth sparking renewed inflationary pressures looks to have past.

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May 16, 2024 03:13 AM

RBA backs uncertain productivity turnaround to achieve inflation target

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept Australia’s cash rate unchanged at 4.35% in May but refrained from increasing its longer-term underlying inflation forecasts, limiting the risk of a near-term interest rate hike.


AUD/USD forecast: RBA rate hike revival risk is real and growing

Stickiness in services and domestic inflation, accompanied by continued resilience in labour market conditions, points to the likelihood of the RBA striking a more hawkish tone in its May monetary policy meeting, creating upside risks for the Australian dollar

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May 6, 2024 07:05 AM
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AUD/USD lower as the RBA enters perpetual-hold mode

With no imminent reason for the RBA to hike or cut, the 4.35% cash rate seems here to stay. But the removal of their slight tightening bias weighed on AUD/USD.

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March 19, 2024 04:55 AM
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Central Bank galore with BOJ, Fed, BOE, SNB and RBA on tap: The Week Ahead

It is a monster week ahead for traders with a key focus on central banks, with BOJ, Fed, BOE and RBA meetings on the menu.

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March 15, 2024 04:42 AM

AUD/USD weekly outlook: RBA, FOMC minutes, wages and PMIs on tap

AUD/USD could be susceptible to movement from minutes of the recent FOMC and RBA meetings. But with Australian unemployment data hitting a three-year high, a softer set of wage figures could bring forward bets of a rate cut.

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February 18, 2024 08:00 PM

AUD/USD, ASX 200 rebound on China market surge, not RBA

The RBA continues to see the risk that rates may increase again despite delivering updated forecasts showing faster progress in bringing inflation back to within its target band. For AUD/USD traders, there was more interest in the rally in Chinese stocks and currency than what the bank had to say.

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February 6, 2024 06:14 AM

AUD/USD upside hamstrung by Australia’s stretched consumer

Bargain hunting by cost conscious consumers saw Australian retail sales volumes accelerate slightly in the final three months of 2023, reducing the risk of a negative growth when the December quarter national accounts are released in early March.

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February 6, 2024 01:04 AM
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USD extends its lead on hot ISM report, RBA up next for AUD, ASX traders

An inflationary ISM report saw bets of multiple Fed cuts reduced to send the US dollar index to an 11-week high. If the RBA come out with a dovish meeting today, AUD/USD could be headed for 64c.

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February 5, 2024 10:19 PM
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EUR/AUD winning streak faces upside test ahead of RBA decision

EUR/AUD is on track to record its fifth consecutive daily gain to start the trading week, moving the pair to within touching distance of the downtrend bulls have been thwarted at on several separate occasions dating back to the middle of last year.

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February 5, 2024 02:03 AM

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AUD/USD weekly outlook: Powell, RBA rate decision in focus

Monday could be off to a volatile start if Jerome Powell’s 60-minutes interview causes a stir for global markets. Whilst the RBA meeting, press conference and updated forecasts could drive sentiment for AUD and the ASX next week

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February 2, 2024 07:00 AM

AUD monthly outlook: February 2024

AUD/USD suffered its worst month in 11 in January, after traders scaled back bets of several Fed cuts this year which helped the US dollar rally and force AUD/USD -3.5% lower for the month. The focus now shifts to next week's RBA meeting.

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February 1, 2024 03:27 AM

Growing risk RBA may cut rates before the Federal Reserve

There’s a growing risk the RBA may end up cutting interest rates sooner than US Federal Reserve with a slowdown in underlying inflationary pressures in the December quarter seeing markets shift forward expectation for a 25 basis point rate cut to early May.

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January 31, 2024 02:30 AM

AUD/USD falls, ASX probes record high on soft CPI figures, RBA-cut bets

Australia’s Q4 data report will be warmly welcomed for those calling for RBA cuts, with all headline data points coming in beneath expectations.

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January 31, 2024 01:31 AM

AUD/USD: Sticky domestic price pressures to collide with US disinflation narrative

The AUD/USD's global focus may pause temporarily later this week when Australia’s inflation indicator is released, containing a whole raft of new information on what’s happening with prices at the consumer level, especially for services.

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January 9, 2024 03:41 AM

AUDUSD 2024 Fundamental Outlook Preview

With a soft landing assumed, AUD/USD could rise in 2024, but we're not necessarily expecting runaway gains...

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December 25, 2023 10:40 PM