RBA

AUD/USD was the strongest performer among the Aussie pairs we track in November. A combination of hawkish RBA alongside bets of Fed cuts in 2024 played nicely with our long bias. What will December bring?

There was a risk that the RBA’s minutes were more hawkish than their November statement had let on, and this certainly seems to be the case. And hawkish minutes alongside a lower USD/CNH and USD/JPY have helped AUD/USD test a new cycle high today. Can it now gun for 66?

In what seems like a while, the US economic calendar is relatively quiet with no top tier events. But US bond auctions should be on trader’s radars as they provide a look at how strong demand is (or not) for the ultimate US safe-haven asset. And if demand is low, it could send yields higher and shake a few equity bulls out of the tree and generally weigh on risk sentiment. We also have the RBA minutes and a potentially ‘live’ speech for the governor to keep tabs on.

Tumbling US stock futures and neutral language from RBA Governor Michele Bullock has seen AUD/USD plunge in early Asian trade, continuing the sizeable reversal seen on Wednesday following the release of Australia’s Q3 hot inflation report.

Australian inflation has come in hot in Q3, seeing the odds for a RBA rate hike in November lift to 60%. The AUD/USD has moved higher while the ASX 200 has reversed earlier gains, turning negative for the session.

When you look back through the history books, no other economic data release is more important for the AUD and ASX than Australia’s quarterly consumer price inflation report. Today will be no exception.

Geopolitics, inflation reports and sentiment towards Chinese markets will likely dominate proceedings for AUD/JPY and crude oil this week, putting their respective uptrends to the test during a time when investor risk appetite is particularly weak.

Australia’s September jobs report is arguably the most important G10 FX data release in the world on Thursday, ensuring there’ll be significant interest among AUD/USD and ASX 200 traders.

With the RBA on the sidelines, it means external factors will continue to drive movements in the AUD, ASX 200 and Australian bond futures for the foreseeable future.

A playbook on how the AUD/USD, ASX 200 and Australian bonds should the RBA signal an end to rate hikes.

AUD/USD slumps on disappointing data, undermining the case for higher interest rates

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is arguably the ugliest index chart in the world right now, for good reason.

Australian stocks don't look particularly cheap, adding to downside risks from earnings disappointments.

Unemployment jumps unexpectedly diminishing the risk of a wage price spiral forming.

No matter how you slice or dice it, negatives for the AUD/USD continue to pile up.

USD/CNH rallies as the PBOC unexpectedly cuts wholesale interest rates. AUD/USD gains on stimulus hopes.

USD/JPY is back to levels where the BOJ intervened last year but that doesn't mean it will do so again.