AUD NZD

Australia’s retail sales were down a lot more than expected in December, suggesting much of the hype had died over the Black Friday Sales and Cyber Sales Monday in November.

There’s no escaping the fact that Australian inflation continues to point the wrong way for the RBA and consumers alike. And today’s report should quickly eradicate hopes of an RBA pause in February.

If AUD/NZD can break above the top of its current flag pattern, it may be on its way to the flag target above 1.1000.

As long as AUD/NZD is below 1.0860 (the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level) the bounce is shallow.

The RBA used the last meeting of the year to hike interest rates by another 25bp – its eighth hike in as many meetings.

If the RBNZ hike by 75bp tomorrow in line with the consensus, it will be their first hike of this magnitude on record.

With the RBA only hiking rates by 25bps at each of the last two meetings, the RBNZ is the more hawkish of the two central banks.

Economic data beats are usually a good thing, unless it is in the guise of much higher than expected (and already elevated) inflation.

Good news today for the Australian economy as the employment report for June stunned with across-the-board strength.

As the release of the final partials yesterday warned, Australian Q1 2022 Australian GDP has beaten expectations, rising by a solid 0.8% QoQ and 3.3% YoY, despite the impact of Omicron and the devastating rains and floods that hit the East Coast.

The RBA’s surprise hike caught AUD/NZD traders with their guard down. As a result, the pair traded to its highest level since August 2018.

European and US indices were broadly higher as peace talks moved in the right direction. Today we’re watching AUD/NZD for today’s NZ Business Outlook report.

The US unleashed new sanctions against Russian elites and two banks, whilst EU, Germany and the UK announced their own financial burdens.

Despite NZD and AUD being the strongest majors last week, the AUD/NZD cross dropped a couple of clues it may try to correct below a key resistance level.

Despite a positive close for Wall Street, US futures are now trading lower after a dire earnings report from Meta.

A public holiday in New Zealand yesterday for the Auckland Anniversary Day, enabling local traders a chance to catch their breath after a busy few weeks.

After 5-day of choppy yet sideways trading on Wall Street, momentum finally tipped its hand with a broad rally for US indices.