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AUD/USD forecast: Bullish reversal may have legs before key inflation update

Whether you want to call it a bullish hammer, dragonfly doji, false break or morning star, the price action on the AUD/USD daily suggests the path of least resistance is higher in the near-term.

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Yesterday 11:40 PM
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AUD/USD bearish trend may be disrupted by China’s market open

Contrary to what you may expect, movements in AUD/USD on Tuesday may be dictated by the performance of Chinese financial markets rather than the latest batch of Chinese economic data including Q1 GDP.

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April 16, 2024 01:44 AM
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Booming commodities, China turnaround a risk for bloated bearish AUD/USD bets

With ample good news priced into the US dollar outlook and a big reversal in the AUD/USD on Tuesday, there are signs the torrent of bearish sentiment may be slowly turning around.

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April 3, 2024 07:03 AM

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AUD/USD forecast: US economic exceptionalism required to cement bearish break

AUD/USD remains a sell-on-rallies prospect in a week where interpretation of Fedspeak and US labour market data will dominate. It will be imperative for the US data to portray a message of continued economic strength to see meaningful downside materialise.

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March 30, 2024 04:00 AM
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AUD/USD forecast: Why this textbook bearish pattern may be prone to failure

At the end of last week, I highlighted a potential bearish continuation pattern on AUD/USD. But the further this week has progressed, the more I have questioned its potential to break lower.

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March 27, 2024 03:44 AM
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AUD/USD bears eyeing downside after Australia’s inflation undershoot

Australia’s inflation report undershot expectations in February, although there’s still evidence of stickiness in underlying price measures. Markets reacted by bidding Australian government bonds which have pressured AUD/USD, seeing it test uptrend support. A break could see the Aussie revisit its 2024 lows.

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March 27, 2024 01:55 AM
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AUD/USD teetering as selling momentum delivers death cross

AUD/USD is threatening to break the uptrend it’s been in since October, failing to find traction despite what was the largest coordinated central bank dovish pivot since the start of the pandemic last week. With little event risk on the calendar, the fortunes of AUD/USD may be determined by USD/CNY following a dramatic end to trade in Chinese markets on Friday.

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March 24, 2024 11:07 PM
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AUD/USD not feeling the love from perky commodity prices

AUD/USD looks heavy on the charts, weighed down by tumbling iron ore and coal prices and widening interest rate differentials with the United States.

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March 14, 2024 05:08 AM
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AUD/USD: Breaking key levels with momentum ahead of non-farm payrolls

AUD/USD has surged to a technical level where it’s done plenty of work around in the past, providing an opportunity for traders to establish trades with excellent risk-reward potential. With declining US bond yields suffocating the US dollar rally, directional risks appear slanted to the upside.

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March 8, 2024 12:33 AM
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AUD: Dreary domestic economy heightens risk RBA may abandon tightening bias

The largest and most important part of the Australian economy is struggling under the weight of higher borrowing costs, adding to the risk the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may be forced to start lowering policy rates sooner than other central banks, keeping the Australian dollar under pressure.

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March 6, 2024 02:01 AM
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AUD/USD: Fuel driving US dollar rally may be nearing exhaustion point

Too soon to turn bullish AUD/USD but be ready when the turn eventually comes.

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March 1, 2024 02:30 AM
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AUD/USD: Looking to sell rallies on expected inflation acceleration

Australian CPI is expected to accelerate in January, fitting with numerous other inflation readings around the developed world. While that sounds like a scenario that could benefit the AUD/USD on reduced RBA rate cut bets, don’t be surprised if an initial bounce is faded quickly on this occasion.

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February 27, 2024 11:58 PM
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USD/JPY, AUD/JPY forecast: The yen strengthens on slightly hot CPI data

Japan's core CPI didn't fall below the BOJ's 2% target, although it did match it. Which has seen AUD/JPY and USD/JPY retrace further from their highs in light of yen strength.

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February 27, 2024 12:54 AM
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AUD/JPY nears 17-month high, ASX 200 looks set to bounce: Asian Open

AUD/JPY has fast approached a pivotal level to hint that an eventual breakout could be on the cards, even if not immediately. The ASX 200 looks sets to bounce after positive earning from Nvidia lifted Wall Street futures after market hours.

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February 21, 2024 10:21 PM
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AUD looks constructive against EUR, GBP following latest reversal

Attempts to ram EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD into higher trading ranges failed last week, suggesting the Aussie dollar may be starting to rediscover its mojo against some major European crosses.

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February 19, 2024 05:00 AM
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China market performance post Lunar New Year key for AUD/USD outlook

With the US dollar unable to find traction despite shorter-dated US yields rising to the highest level since mid-December, there are grounds to suggest AUD/USD may be able to break stubborn resistance located above .6530 in the days ahead.

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February 18, 2024 06:00 PM
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AUD/JPY falters at key highs once more as AU unemployment rises

Australia's unemployment rose to a three year to knock AUD pairs from their perches. But in particular I'm keeping an eye on AUD/JPY which has reversed at a key resistance area.

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February 15, 2024 02:19 AM

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AUD/USD bulls battling against stubborn sellers into US CPI

AUD/USD hasn’t had much luck dealing with sellers layered above .6530 recently. 13 attempts on the four-hourly chart in less than a week to no avail, leaving it sandwiched in a tight range between minor uptrend support.

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February 13, 2024 02:27 AM
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EUR/AUD winning streak faces upside test ahead of RBA decision

EUR/AUD is on track to record its fifth consecutive daily gain to start the trading week, moving the pair to within touching distance of the downtrend bulls have been thwarted at on several separate occasions dating back to the middle of last year.

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February 5, 2024 02:03 AM
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AUD/USD rebound provides opportunity for bears to reset shorts

A rebound in US equities sparked by renewed earnings optimism and continued declines in US bond yields acted to snuff out a potential downside break in AUD/USD, sending the pair sharply higher over the course of North American trade.

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February 1, 2024 11:44 PM

EUR/AUD traders eyeing a bounce or break from 200-day moving average

The proximity of EUR/AUD to its 200-day moving average and uptrend support presents an opportunity for traders to position for either a bounce or break from this technical juncture, providing favourable risk-reward depending on which way the price moves.

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January 22, 2024 04:19 AM
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EUR/AUD looking toppy following Australia’s jobs report

Having spiked to two-month highs in the immediate aftermath of Australia’s December jobs report, EUR/AUD reversed hard, generating a bearish pin candle on the four-hourly suggesting it may have seen a near-term top.

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January 18, 2024 04:46 AM
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AUD monthly wrap: November 2023

The Australian dollar did well to hold above 63c through October despite the negative headlines thrown its way. And with the increased odds that the RBA may have a hike or two up their sleeve, perhaps AUD can find the strength to post a rally should sentiment allow.

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November 1, 2023 04:07 AM