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NZD/USD: Dovish RBNZ hammers Kiwi, Fed pivot could spark reversal

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is not far off cutting interest rates, as long as domestic inflationary pressures allow. That means next week’s June quarter consumer price inflation report could sow the seeds for the RBNZ to begin lowering interest rates as soon as August. NZD/USD has fallen heavily in response.

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July 10, 2024 12:55 PM
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NZD/USD: RBNZ statement likely to be short and not so sweet

The bullish NZD/USD breakout flagged last week has come to fruition with the trade target of .6150 reached. With the price holding around the level, we look at potential trades ahead of key events including Jerome Powell’s appearance before the US Senate on Tuesday, the RBNZ interest rate decision on Wednesday and key US inflation data on Thursday.

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July 8, 2024 01:36 PM

NZD/USD: Holiday mode, US disinflation focus to unlock Kiwi upside?

Having broken downtrend resistance after logging another failure below the 200-day moving average, NZD/USD may see some upside in the near-term as trading volumes thin out ahead of US Independence Day holiday.

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July 3, 2024 10:53 AM

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EUR/USD, NZD/USD: Abundant fuel to spark a squeeze

EUR/USD and NZD/USD have returned to territory where they’ve attracted buying in the past. Given this week is likely to confirm ebbing inflationary pressures in the United States, adding to the case for Fed rate cuts, and with French election uncertainty now arguably priced in, there’s fuel around to spark some form of squeeze in the days ahead.

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June 24, 2024 03:37 PM

NZD/USD: New Zealand exits recession as the Kiwi contemplates upside

New Zealand is no longer in recession with economic activity expanding 0.2% in the first quarter, leaving it 0.3% higher than a year earlier. Markets has been looking for slightly softer numbers at 0.1% and 0.2% respectively. NZD/USD is pushing higher.

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June 20, 2024 09:17 AM

Potential RBNZ dovish pivot no guarantee to deliver NZD/USD weakness

Markets are alert to the risk of the RBNZ switching focus, dragging NZD/USD lower. But when it comes to directional risks for the New Zealand dollar beyond the short-term, it really comes back to the US interest rate outlook and health of the global economy.

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June 17, 2024 12:33 PM
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NZD/USD: Kiwi bulls and bears set to dual it out at key resistance level

Rampant risk appetite fueled by lower US bond yields and a softer US dollar has NZD/USD on track to test of stubborn resistance zone it’s struggled to overcome in the past. Given the exuberant mood markets are in, if the Kiwi can’t break higher now, when will it ever?

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June 6, 2024 12:37 PM

GBP/USD, NZD/USD: Bullish breaks bring tougher tests on the horizon

GBP/USD and NZD/USD look bullish on the charts, breaking to fresh multi-month highs. With a light calendar in the UK and New Zealand, positioning tweaks ahead of Friday’s key US PCE inflation report looks set to drive the price action in the coming days.

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May 28, 2024 01:08 PM

Significant trading volumes on the VIX hints at cycle low: COT report

When open interest on the VIX rises at its second largest weekly pace on record, it’s best to take notice. Especially when it reached a 5-year low before snapping a 4-week losing streak. We also take a look at positioning on the USD index, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, NZD/USD, gold and WTI crude oil.

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NZD/USD: RBNZ delivers hawkish surprise, Kiwi gains capped by amplified economic risks

The RBNZ is intent on defeating inflation even if it means sacrificing the economy, delivering a major surprise at its latest monetary policy meeting by flagging the likelihood that rates may need to increase again. The Zealand dollar surged on the unexpected hawkish pivot.

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May 22, 2024 01:51 PM

RBNZ preview: Timeline for taming inflation key for New Zealand dollar reaction

The RBNZ is highly likely to leave its overnight cash rate at 5.5% on Wednesday. However, with updated economic forecasts, along with a press conference from Governor Adrian Orr, the bank has been given plenty of clear air to shake these sleepy FX markets up, if it chooses to do so.

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May 21, 2024 02:04 PM
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NZD/USD: New Zealand economic downturn worsening ahead of key RBNZ inflation survey

While that keeps the prospect of a near-term rate cut from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on the table should inflationary pressures suddenly subside, for now, movements in NZD/USD continue to be dictated by sentiment on what the Federal Reserve may do with US interest rates in the months ahead.

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May 13, 2024 10:55 AM
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NZD/USD: US dollar corrective bounce looks mature, Kiwi upside favoured

The New Zealand dollar has been holding up well despite USD strength, continuing to find bids below .6000. With downside price momentum starting to ebb, grounds are building for near-term NZD/USD upside.

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May 9, 2024 12:06 PM
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NZD/USD, AUD/NZD: New Zealand recession is hammering the jobs market, inflation next

New Zealand’s unemployment rate jumps more than expected despite a collapse in labour force participation, putting the Reserve Bank of New Zealand closer to cutting interest rates before the US Federal Reserve. NZD/USD fell sharply while AUD/NZD rose to new cycle highs.

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May 1, 2024 10:21 AM
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NZD/USD pops as RBNZ rate cuts bets delivered sticky reality check

New Zealand inflationary pressures continued to ease in the March quarter, although domestic prices remained uncomfortably sticky, likely keeping the prospect of rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand a distant prospect.

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April 17, 2024 09:23 AM

NZD/USD: Inflation the only barrier between the RBNZ and rate cuts

Inflation remains key sticking point preventing interest rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, ensuring Wednesday’s first quarter consumer price inflation report will be closely watched by financial markets, especially should it print on the softer side of expectations.

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April 16, 2024 04:11 PM
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NZD/USD, NZD/JPY: RBNZ not wilting on inflation focus despite double dip recession

The Kiwi dollar is pushing higher, potentially reflecting no escalation in dovish rhetoric from the RBNZ despite New Zealand sitting in a double-dip recession. It has an inflation mandate and inflation remains too high to justify lowering rates yet.

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April 10, 2024 01:19 PM

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AUD/USD, NZD/USD, ASX 200 rise ahead of RBNZ, US inflation: Asian Open

1-day implied volatility levels for USD/JPY, EUR/USD and NZD/USD have blown out ahead of today’s key events, which includes comments from BOJ’s governor, and RBNZ cash rate decision and the US inflation report.

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April 10, 2024 09:02 AM

NZD/USD, NZD/JPY RBNZ preview: A little central bank that packs an almighty market punch

While it may be one of the smallest G10 FX central banks, what the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) lacks in size it more than makes up for in terms of market punch, often sparking major moves in the New Zealand dollar under the leadership of Governor Adrian ‘Shock and’ Orr. Wednesday's interest rate decision may be no exception.

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April 9, 2024 11:41 AM
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AUD/USD, US dollar, Swiss franc analysis: COT report – Feb 26, 2024

Traders remained net-long US dollar index futures last week, although asset managers have the more convincing bullish view for the dollar.


NZD/USD: Respect the range until the Kiwi doesn’t

Some FX pairs like to gravitate towards big figures but not the NZD/USD. It’s clearly a fan of doing things in half big figure increment, proving plenty of opportunities to build trades around.

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February 20, 2024 02:23 PM
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NZD, AUD take the lead in quiet trade but USD may not be done yet

NZD/USD and AUD/USD were the strongest pairs on Monday during quiet trade, but the USD shows the potential to bounce before a larger move lower, which could eventually allow AUD/USD to reach for 66c.

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February 20, 2024 09:12 AM

NZD/USD: What one hawkish forecaster giveth, 38 dovish forecasters taketh away

Having surged Friday on the back of a forecast from ANZ looking for an additional two hikes from the RBNZ, the NZD/USD has now given back those gains back following the latest RBNZ inflation expectation survey. What one hawkish forecaster giveth, 38 dovish forecasters have taketh away.

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February 13, 2024 03:43 PM