Daily Key Short Term Technical Levels Thurs 16 Nov 2017

FX –  EUR at risk of undergoing minor corrective decline with AUD & NZD weak against USD

• EUR/USD – Pushed up and retreated right from the predefined short-term resistance/target of 1.1825/1840 (printed a high of 1.1860 in yesterday, 15 Nov European session). Recall that we have turned neutral yesterday due to a the risk of an impending minor corrective decline as per highlighted in our previous report. Current price action has increased the risk of a minor corrective decline as the hourly RSI has flashed a bearish divergence signal & broke below its corresponding support at the 50% level. Turn bearish below 1.1828 key short-term resistance (Hourly “Spinning Top” low seen before the start of yesterday, 15 Nov U.S. session + close to 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the current push down from 15 Nov high to today, 16 Nov Asian session current intraday low) for a further potential minor corrective decline towards 1.1725/1705 (pull-back support of the former medium-term descending channel resistance from 08 Sep 2017 high + 50% Fibonacci retracement of the current up move from  07 Nov low to 15 Nov 2017 low).
• GBP/USD – Continued inch higher as expected within a sideways range configuration in place 07 since 06 Oct 2017 low. Maintain bullish bias for a potential upswing move within the aforementioned range configuration with a tightened key short-term support now at 1.3120 (minor swing high area of 14 Nov 2017 + minor ascending trendline from 13 Nov 2017 low) for a further potential push up to retest of 1.3230 and the sideways configuration range upper limit/resistance of 1.3300/3325.
• AUD/USD – Recall that we have turned neutral yesterday due to the risk of a minor corrective rebound/consolidation after it met the 0.7580 short-term support/target. Yesterday’s price action has indeed shaped the corrective bounce towards the upper limit of the neutrality range of 0.7625 (refer to yesterday’s report) as it printed a high of 0.7620. Turn bearish below 0.7625 key short-term resistance for the start of another potential downleg to target the 0.7520/0.7500 key medium-term support (lower boundary of the descending channel from 08 Sep 2017 high + major ascending trendline from Jan 2016 low + Fibonacci projection cluster).
• NZD/USD – Challenged the 0.6905 tightened key short-term resistance before it reversed down (printed a high of 0.6919 in yesterday, 15 Nov European session). Tolerate the excess  and maintain bearish bias below 0.6905/6919 for a further potential push down to retest the 27 Oct 2017 swing low area of 0.6820 before targeting the next intermediate support of  0.6745/6720 (lower boundary of a minor descending channel from 17 Oct 2017 high + Fibonacci projection cluster).
• USD/JPY – Broke below 113.00 as expected and hit the short-term support/target of 112.50/30 (printed a low of 112.48 in yesterday, 15 Nov European session).  Based on Elliot Wave/fractal analysis, current price action is at risk of undergoing a minor corrective rebound/consolidation to retrace yesterday’s decline. Prefer to turn neutral now between 112.48 & 113.45 (pull-back resistance of former minor “Expanding Wedge” support from 10 Nov 2017 low as seen on the hourly chart +  Fibonacci cluster).

 Commodities – Minor corrective decline remains intact for WTI

• Gold –  No change, still evolving within a range configuration, thus maintain neutrality stance between 1290 & 1265.
• WTI Crude (Dec 2017) – Continued to inch lower as expected. No change, maintain bearish bias below tightened key short-term resistance at 56.40 (former minor swing low areas of 09/14 Nov 2017) for a further potential push down towards the next intermediate supports at 54.00 follow by 52.82/70 next (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent up move from 06 Oct 2017 low to 09 Nov 2017 high).

Stock Indices (CFD) – Still below resistances for further potential downside

• US SP 500 – Pushed down lower and tested 2565 (medium-term downside trigger level + minor “Head & Shoulders” neckline support) in the opening hour of yesterday, 15 Nov U.S session and printed a low of 2556 before it rebounded towards 2572. Again, no clear bearish breakdown yet. However technical elements are still weak as price action has continued to shape lower highs as seen on the hourly chart. Maintain bearish bias with a tightened key short-term resistance now at 2573/80 (former minor range support from 10 Nov 2017 low + minor descending trendline from 09 Nov 2017 high) and a clear break below 2565 in the U.S. session ) is likely to see a potential downside acceleration towards the next intermediate support at 2544 (see latest weekly technical outlook).
• Japan 225 - Declined as expected and hit the first short-term support/target of 22000 (printed a low of 21831 in yesterday, 15 Nov European session). No change, maintain bearish bias below tightened key short-term resistance now at 22425 (minor swing low of 10 Nov 2017 + minor descending trendline from 10 Nov 2017 high + pull-back resistance of the former medium-term ascending channel support from 08 Sep 2017 low) for a further potential push down towards the next intermediate support of 21650/600 (minor swing low areas of 24/26 Oct 2017 + 1.00 Fibonacci projection of the down move from 09 Nov 2017 high).
• Hong Kong 50 - No change, maintain bearish bias below  tightened key short-term resistance at 29110/130 for a further potential push down to test the next intermediate support at 28670/560 (former minor swing high area of 30 Oct/06 Nov 2017).
• Australia 200 – No change, maintain bearish bias below 5970 tightened key short-term resistance for a further potential push down towards the next intermediate support at 5905/5900 in the first step (minor swing low area of 31 Oct 2017 + 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of recent up move from 04 Oct 2017 to 09 Nov 2017 high).
• Germany 30 – Declined as expected and hit the first short-term support/target at 12900 (printed a low of 12847 in yesterday, 15 Nov European session). Maintain bearish bias with adjusted key short-term resistance now at 13110 (former minor swing low of 10 Nov 2017 + upper boundary of the minor descending channel from 07 Nov 2017 high + 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going decline from 07 Nov 2017 high to yesterday’s low) for further potential push down towards 12720/700 support next (1.236 Fibonacci projection of the on-going down move from 07 Nov 2017 high + 50% Fibonacci retracement of the previous up move from 29 Aug 2017 low to 07 Nov 2017 high).

*Levels are obtained from City Index Advantage TraderPro platform

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